Hong Kong market has been volatile in the near future, due to the linked exchange rate for Hong Kong's financial and economic policies need to follow the direction of the United States, the United States is not yet fully optimistic about the situation, although the credit crisis has been the worst moment of the past, but the poor performance of enterprises, according to the impact of Lingering credit turmoil negative impact on the economy, the stock market has fully entered a bear market. In addition, the United States as a global financial capital market centre, its instability will continue to bring destruction on global stock markets, Hong Kong equities as a fully liberalized market, the impact will continue to the end after the interim results.
Hong Kong stock market last week did not completely follow the trend of the United States, because the market has been looking forward to the Mainland in this week's CPI will rise over a quarter of decline. Wang stressed the market began looking forward to the direction likely to be some adjustments to support the market's confidence, offset by a majority of U.S. influence.
Hong Kong investment community now feel that the Mainland before the Olympic Games will be introduced to stabilize the economy or the stock market and the measures that can be said that Hong Kong stocks can support one of the few positive factors. However, in the financial market crisis and inflation of the double attack, the global economy was "recession" and "inflation" between the struggle, I believe, the stock market to full recovery, may also depend on economic recovery after the first quarter of next year can be Conclusion. General U.S. economic recession it takes about 3-5 quarters, so that next year, the United States, the problem will still be affected by.
At present, when international oil prices will come down, and food when the imbalance between the supply and demand improved, is still unknown number of global inflation is now difficult to predict when it began to slow down. Europe and the United States economic downturn on the impact of emerging markets will continue to surface. However, if the global economic slowdown intensified, would increase the risk of deflation, the central bank will have to curb inflation and raising interest rates, but may cut interest rates make a U-turn.
Asia-Pacific region as a whole has yet to be poor market sentiment, capital flows slight improvement, the authors refer to some recent data, the Asia-Pacific stock funds last week, more than 1 billion U.S. dollars recorded a net inflow of funds, of which half is the inflow of funds related to the Mainland and Hong Kong And stock, which since mid-May, nearly two months the first time the Hong Kong stock market recorded a net inflow of funds.
But short-term, the U.S. housing market continued instability, coupled with oil prices at record highs once again Biao, Hong Kong stocks early this week has not escape the fate of fluctuations. In addition, listed companies have latest medium-term forecasting ability to remain bright, or again disappointed the market, institutional investors will also be about investment decisions. (Wen-day satisfaction)
2008-07-20
U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate increase this year may be difficult
Wednesday the Fed released the minutes of the meeting, the Fed last month decided to keep rates unchanged when he hinted that, in view of the market, the economy and inflation prospects facing the uncertainty of interest rate policy may continue to remain unchanged, interest rate increase is still Hopeless.
According to the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) 6月24日至25, the minutes revealed that the basic view that the members of the Committee since the last FOMC meeting, although the risks to economic growth has declined, but inflation risks are still rising Strengthening. This shows that despite economic growth is facing significant downside risk, but officials hinted that they were still on inflation worries even in economic growth. In addition, the meeting minutes, Fed officials have made the first half of this year's more moderate, and a slight slowdown in the second half of the expected.
Based on the expected inflation and inflation worries, while interest rate increase may be the Fed's next interest rate adjustment, but most members felt that, given the economic activities and the prospects for price pressures are still unknown and therefore the future timing and implementation of policies and measures Intensity can hardly grasp. This shows that the support of the minutes of the market for at least the end of the year the Fed will keep policy unchanged expectations. JP Morgan Chase had previously forecast, the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at the current level of the end of the year, while in the first quarter of next year will raise interest rates.
In addition Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday to answer a question by Senator Ron Paul also said that U.S. inflation too high, and reiterated the Fed's goal is to achieve price stability. Previously, the U.S. Labor Department announced that June consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.1 percent, the second highest since the 1982 increase, the highest increase since 2005. The core CPI rose by 0.3 percent. Both are higher than Wall Street had forecast. So Bernanke said that to maintain price stability is very important. He pointed out that energy and commodity prices soared by the Fed caused by factors beyond the control of.
And Ben Bernanke also reiterated that the United States economy is facing many difficulties, the economic downside risk and implied that the Fed is still the main trouble. He in on the 16th to the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee in prepared testimony that the financial markets to help restore more normal function of the Federal Reserve will continue to be the top priority. In recent weeks, including Lehman Brothers and the United States before the two mortgage agencies Fannie Mae, the premises of the U.S. stock tumbled, making investors in the U.S. financial markets are worried about the future. Affected by this, the dollar also can not escape the fate of the crash, on the 15th of the euro exchange rate fell below 1.60 mark, as yesterday - 20:24, the euro-dollar exchange rate was 1.5862, the dollar exchange rate of 105.76 yen.
The dollar recently fell, Bernanke claimed that only in exceptional circumstances shots intervene in the foreign exchange market, he can expect dollar in the medium term reflects a more robust U.S. economy. However, he also said that if the market disorder, have reason to intervene in foreign exchange markets to take interim action. Bernanke at the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee to testify on that, if effective decision-makers in the United States and strong economic growth, then will be reflected in the medium term on the strength of the U.S. dollar. He said that a strong dollar is the basic way through a strong economy to support.
According to the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) 6月24日至25, the minutes revealed that the basic view that the members of the Committee since the last FOMC meeting, although the risks to economic growth has declined, but inflation risks are still rising Strengthening. This shows that despite economic growth is facing significant downside risk, but officials hinted that they were still on inflation worries even in economic growth. In addition, the meeting minutes, Fed officials have made the first half of this year's more moderate, and a slight slowdown in the second half of the expected.
Based on the expected inflation and inflation worries, while interest rate increase may be the Fed's next interest rate adjustment, but most members felt that, given the economic activities and the prospects for price pressures are still unknown and therefore the future timing and implementation of policies and measures Intensity can hardly grasp. This shows that the support of the minutes of the market for at least the end of the year the Fed will keep policy unchanged expectations. JP Morgan Chase had previously forecast, the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at the current level of the end of the year, while in the first quarter of next year will raise interest rates.
In addition Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday to answer a question by Senator Ron Paul also said that U.S. inflation too high, and reiterated the Fed's goal is to achieve price stability. Previously, the U.S. Labor Department announced that June consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.1 percent, the second highest since the 1982 increase, the highest increase since 2005. The core CPI rose by 0.3 percent. Both are higher than Wall Street had forecast. So Bernanke said that to maintain price stability is very important. He pointed out that energy and commodity prices soared by the Fed caused by factors beyond the control of.
And Ben Bernanke also reiterated that the United States economy is facing many difficulties, the economic downside risk and implied that the Fed is still the main trouble. He in on the 16th to the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee in prepared testimony that the financial markets to help restore more normal function of the Federal Reserve will continue to be the top priority. In recent weeks, including Lehman Brothers and the United States before the two mortgage agencies Fannie Mae, the premises of the U.S. stock tumbled, making investors in the U.S. financial markets are worried about the future. Affected by this, the dollar also can not escape the fate of the crash, on the 15th of the euro exchange rate fell below 1.60 mark, as yesterday - 20:24, the euro-dollar exchange rate was 1.5862, the dollar exchange rate of 105.76 yen.
The dollar recently fell, Bernanke claimed that only in exceptional circumstances shots intervene in the foreign exchange market, he can expect dollar in the medium term reflects a more robust U.S. economy. However, he also said that if the market disorder, have reason to intervene in foreign exchange markets to take interim action. Bernanke at the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee to testify on that, if effective decision-makers in the United States and strong economic growth, then will be reflected in the medium term on the strength of the U.S. dollar. He said that a strong dollar is the basic way through a strong economy to support.
U.S. Fannie premises of the loan-to-US Crisis Desk
When the U.S. government, including the majority of people think that the credit crisis has passed the most severe cold phase, begun to enter the resumption of the time period of adjustment, the U.S. housing market and-death. As generally worried about the two largest U.S. mortgage finance institutions - Fannie Mae and premises of the United States because of a shortage of funds the brink of bankruptcy, Fannie and premises of the United States and the two companies stock prices sharply Kuangxie in a week, all three major indexes lower The dollar also went down. Gradually closed the loan-to-crisis Mo He also seems to be re-opened.
Shares week "lumbar chopped"
July 7, Lehman Brothers reported that due to new accounting regulations will be sheet asset securitization project into the balance sheet, Fannie and premises of the United States will have to fund-raising 75 billion U.S. dollars more to Provision Loss reserve, the two companies are likely to credit the serious shortage of funds. This message one, the premises of the United States and Fannie Mae's stock price plummeted 18 percent immediately and 16 per cent, which began a week dropped the road.
While U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson on the 10th in the Congress that Fannie and premises of the United States and capital adequacy. The two companies subsequently issued a statement saying that the current financial situation of the company fully able to cope with the current real estate market crisis. However, investors worried that with continued low prices, more and more buyers loss of redemption, Fannie and premises of the United States and the loss will be even greater. A result, investors confidence in a declining stock price fell to a straight line.
11, the two companies to direct 50 percent decline in closed, the United States shares the premises even as low as 3.89 U.S. dollars, or up to 51 percent. Fed immediately issued to both companies, opening up the discount window of speech, but closed at Fannie Mae stock to continue to decline by 22 percent, to 10.25 dollars, premises of the United States fell 3.1 percent to 7.75 U.S. dollars. Within one week, two stocks experienced lumbar chopped, or to achieve a 45 per cent and 47 per cent, and created a 17 to the lowest price point.
Affected by this, the Dow Jones and the S & P, Nasdaq Stocks fell the same day, fell to 1.7%, 1.9%, 0.3%. At the same time, has been losing streak around the pressure on the dollar, the euro against the U.S. dollar closed at 1.5937 U.S. dollars the same day, after earlier hitting 1.5943, since the April 23 record low of the dollar against the euro since the weakest performance.
That was gradually from the loan-to-out of the crisis in the shadow of the U.S. economy, appears to be towed back to the quagmire of the loan.
Government assistance not meeting expectations
To avoid the deterioration of the U.S. economy led to a systemic financial crisis, in the premises of the United States and Fannie Mae fell after the U.S. government made a number of immediate assistance scheme stability of market confidence.
13, the Fed unanimously voted through authorized to determine, if necessary, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can give Fannie and premises of the United States and the two agencies direct loans to meet its liquidity needs. And had voted against the establishment of the trip, "a dealer credit tools" different, this creation of the credit window, the loan will be the implementation of a credit interest rates, but also to high-quality U.S. government and federal agencies for mortgage bonds.
The same day, Finance Minister Paulson issued a statement, the Ministry of Finance will require congressional approval, if necessary can be unrestricted stock and the purchase of two companies lend more money. This proposal will be submitted to Congress this week and is expected to vote was adopted. Industry pointed out that this motion if passed, Fannie and premises of the United States and the two major institutions of government support to be further strengthened.
Although the number of government officials explained that the initiative over the short-term goal is stability in the current situation, the elimination of market fear, but this simple goal, it seems that the Government has not fully realized as expected. 14, driven by favorable policies, Fannie Mae and the premises of the United States shares in early trading once Mengchong to increase 31.7 percent and 26.5 percent, but then came the ultimate end at 9.73 U.S. dollars and 8.2 dollars, or 6 percent, respectively And 7.11 percent. Dow and the S & P, Nasdaq Stocks also fell 0.41%, 0.9%, 1.17%.
Analysts believe that Fannie and premises of the U.S. stock prices fell mainly due to investors in the banking sector Tim Xinchou the status quo, while the United States fear the premises Fannie to raise more capital will harm their own interests. Although the rescue policy encouraged by the market, but more investors to consider the U.S. Treasury Department is a large number of assets in the current shareholders will seriously affect the value of the stock.
The loan-to-be dark clouds dissipate over time
When the U.S. government for the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and premises of the United States and much suffering financial hardship, the U.S. financial markets have added a new block.
Just three days ago by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to take over the California IndyMac Bank (IndyMac Bank FSB), a credit crisis in the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history commercial banks and the second largest financial institutions were closed after 14 days The stock market, many banking stocks suffered heavy losses. Headquarters in Seattle, Washington Mutual Bank (Washington Mutual Bank) fell 32 percent, to 3.36 U.S. dollars, a 17-year lows. Headquarters in Cleveland's National City Bank (National City Bank) fell 27 percent, to 3.26 U.S. dollars, although the bank said it remained sufficient regulatory capital and no unusual deposits and creditors, but its shares still to create a 20 Low.
Fannie and in the premises of the United States Bankruptcy challenge encountered at the same time, some mortgage bond business involving a large number of institutions the situation is worrying. Analysts worry that the current number of investment banks face the same threat of bankruptcy, and Fannie and premises of the U.S. bankruptcy may have the tremendous impact, if many large investment banks have closed down, to the U.S. financial markets will bring total combat.
All seem to be in that situation, the loan-to-crisis far from over, and the result is moving in the direction of more deterioration.
"The loan-to-the impact of the crisis will be very far-reaching, at least two years to three years time to digest." This reporter interviewed the Ministry of Commerce Institute of the Americas and Oceania Division, Dr. Wang said, but he considered that the "deteriorating" to describe the Loan-to-crisis status quo is not appropriate. Deterioration is vertical, and now the U.S. economy is the issue of the loan-to-horizontal transfer the result of the crisis. Shenru fingers like water, even if removed, the bellows will extend very far. The source of the 2 million mortgage borrowers not changed, the loan-to-crisis does not exist the possibility of deterioration.
Wang believes that the United States premises Fannie crisis in the shortage of funds, is in relieving the initial loan-to-the impact of the crisis. The loan-to-the beginning of the crisis the most difficult time, the Government took the initiative to relax the capital requirements of the two companies, is the hope that the premises of the United States and Fannie Mae mortgage lending more support to participate in the securities market, a faster solution to the crisis, this will inevitably increase the premises The United States and Fannie Mae's financial risk, the Government will not let these two "meritorious of the Hill" of the crisis facing bankruptcy. Therefore, the premises by the United States and Fannie bankruptcy brought about financial instability is unlikely.
"The issue of capital market entities to the market often layers of the release." Wang said, the mortgage loan crisis led to shortage of funds in financial institutions, the Government will intensify efforts to ease the capital injection, a depreciation of the dollar, prices will go up , The ultimate impact will be transferred to the consumer market. "The Government will continue to resolve the crisis in the loan-to-affected areas of the various issues, this process may be prolonged and 23 of time."
Source: China Economic Times
Shares week "lumbar chopped"
July 7, Lehman Brothers reported that due to new accounting regulations will be sheet asset securitization project into the balance sheet, Fannie and premises of the United States will have to fund-raising 75 billion U.S. dollars more to Provision Loss reserve, the two companies are likely to credit the serious shortage of funds. This message one, the premises of the United States and Fannie Mae's stock price plummeted 18 percent immediately and 16 per cent, which began a week dropped the road.
While U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson on the 10th in the Congress that Fannie and premises of the United States and capital adequacy. The two companies subsequently issued a statement saying that the current financial situation of the company fully able to cope with the current real estate market crisis. However, investors worried that with continued low prices, more and more buyers loss of redemption, Fannie and premises of the United States and the loss will be even greater. A result, investors confidence in a declining stock price fell to a straight line.
11, the two companies to direct 50 percent decline in closed, the United States shares the premises even as low as 3.89 U.S. dollars, or up to 51 percent. Fed immediately issued to both companies, opening up the discount window of speech, but closed at Fannie Mae stock to continue to decline by 22 percent, to 10.25 dollars, premises of the United States fell 3.1 percent to 7.75 U.S. dollars. Within one week, two stocks experienced lumbar chopped, or to achieve a 45 per cent and 47 per cent, and created a 17 to the lowest price point.
Affected by this, the Dow Jones and the S & P, Nasdaq Stocks fell the same day, fell to 1.7%, 1.9%, 0.3%. At the same time, has been losing streak around the pressure on the dollar, the euro against the U.S. dollar closed at 1.5937 U.S. dollars the same day, after earlier hitting 1.5943, since the April 23 record low of the dollar against the euro since the weakest performance.
That was gradually from the loan-to-out of the crisis in the shadow of the U.S. economy, appears to be towed back to the quagmire of the loan.
Government assistance not meeting expectations
To avoid the deterioration of the U.S. economy led to a systemic financial crisis, in the premises of the United States and Fannie Mae fell after the U.S. government made a number of immediate assistance scheme stability of market confidence.
13, the Fed unanimously voted through authorized to determine, if necessary, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can give Fannie and premises of the United States and the two agencies direct loans to meet its liquidity needs. And had voted against the establishment of the trip, "a dealer credit tools" different, this creation of the credit window, the loan will be the implementation of a credit interest rates, but also to high-quality U.S. government and federal agencies for mortgage bonds.
The same day, Finance Minister Paulson issued a statement, the Ministry of Finance will require congressional approval, if necessary can be unrestricted stock and the purchase of two companies lend more money. This proposal will be submitted to Congress this week and is expected to vote was adopted. Industry pointed out that this motion if passed, Fannie and premises of the United States and the two major institutions of government support to be further strengthened.
Although the number of government officials explained that the initiative over the short-term goal is stability in the current situation, the elimination of market fear, but this simple goal, it seems that the Government has not fully realized as expected. 14, driven by favorable policies, Fannie Mae and the premises of the United States shares in early trading once Mengchong to increase 31.7 percent and 26.5 percent, but then came the ultimate end at 9.73 U.S. dollars and 8.2 dollars, or 6 percent, respectively And 7.11 percent. Dow and the S & P, Nasdaq Stocks also fell 0.41%, 0.9%, 1.17%.
Analysts believe that Fannie and premises of the U.S. stock prices fell mainly due to investors in the banking sector Tim Xinchou the status quo, while the United States fear the premises Fannie to raise more capital will harm their own interests. Although the rescue policy encouraged by the market, but more investors to consider the U.S. Treasury Department is a large number of assets in the current shareholders will seriously affect the value of the stock.
The loan-to-be dark clouds dissipate over time
When the U.S. government for the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and premises of the United States and much suffering financial hardship, the U.S. financial markets have added a new block.
Just three days ago by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to take over the California IndyMac Bank (IndyMac Bank FSB), a credit crisis in the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history commercial banks and the second largest financial institutions were closed after 14 days The stock market, many banking stocks suffered heavy losses. Headquarters in Seattle, Washington Mutual Bank (Washington Mutual Bank) fell 32 percent, to 3.36 U.S. dollars, a 17-year lows. Headquarters in Cleveland's National City Bank (National City Bank) fell 27 percent, to 3.26 U.S. dollars, although the bank said it remained sufficient regulatory capital and no unusual deposits and creditors, but its shares still to create a 20 Low.
Fannie and in the premises of the United States Bankruptcy challenge encountered at the same time, some mortgage bond business involving a large number of institutions the situation is worrying. Analysts worry that the current number of investment banks face the same threat of bankruptcy, and Fannie and premises of the U.S. bankruptcy may have the tremendous impact, if many large investment banks have closed down, to the U.S. financial markets will bring total combat.
All seem to be in that situation, the loan-to-crisis far from over, and the result is moving in the direction of more deterioration.
"The loan-to-the impact of the crisis will be very far-reaching, at least two years to three years time to digest." This reporter interviewed the Ministry of Commerce Institute of the Americas and Oceania Division, Dr. Wang said, but he considered that the "deteriorating" to describe the Loan-to-crisis status quo is not appropriate. Deterioration is vertical, and now the U.S. economy is the issue of the loan-to-horizontal transfer the result of the crisis. Shenru fingers like water, even if removed, the bellows will extend very far. The source of the 2 million mortgage borrowers not changed, the loan-to-crisis does not exist the possibility of deterioration.
Wang believes that the United States premises Fannie crisis in the shortage of funds, is in relieving the initial loan-to-the impact of the crisis. The loan-to-the beginning of the crisis the most difficult time, the Government took the initiative to relax the capital requirements of the two companies, is the hope that the premises of the United States and Fannie Mae mortgage lending more support to participate in the securities market, a faster solution to the crisis, this will inevitably increase the premises The United States and Fannie Mae's financial risk, the Government will not let these two "meritorious of the Hill" of the crisis facing bankruptcy. Therefore, the premises by the United States and Fannie bankruptcy brought about financial instability is unlikely.
"The issue of capital market entities to the market often layers of the release." Wang said, the mortgage loan crisis led to shortage of funds in financial institutions, the Government will intensify efforts to ease the capital injection, a depreciation of the dollar, prices will go up , The ultimate impact will be transferred to the consumer market. "The Government will continue to resolve the crisis in the loan-to-affected areas of the various issues, this process may be prolonged and 23 of time."
Source: China Economic Times
U.S. second wave of the loan-to-the outbreak of the crisis have been
As concerns the two largest U.S. mortgage finance institutions - Fannie Mae and the premises of the United States and the brink of bankruptcy, coupled with the second largest ever financial institutions IndyMac Bank FSB closure of stimulation, leading to lack of investor confidence, U.S. time July 14 showed the U.S. stock market fell pattern, to promote financial stocks to their lowest level in eight years. For a time, the U.S. economy appears to be completely enveloped in the credits under the shadow of the crisis.
Resurgence of the aftermath
"The loan-to-market financial crisis on the impact has not ended, especially the U.S. credit market fluctuations, through Fannie Mae and the United States and reflected in the premises." Foreign Economic and Trade University Ding Zhijie, vice president of financial institutes to this reporter said.
Fannie and premises belonging to the United States by private investors but by holding the U.S. government to support the special financial institutions, the main business is housing mortgage loans. Fannie and premises of the United States is the U.S. housing mortgage loans the major source of funding.
Lehman Brothers issued a report on the 7th of this month, Fannie Mae and premises of the United States and the two companies may be facing a serious shortage of funds, will be forced to raise 75 billion U.S. dollars of funds to continue to engage in mortgage-related business. The report also is expected, the two companies will suffer more losses. The news exacerbated investors concerns.
July 11, the two largest U.S. real estate credit companies Fannie Mae and premises of the U.S. stock prices plummeted after the two companies was down 1 at 50%, although the late decline narrowed, but also created a-week high Decreased by 73% and 62% of the alarming rate.
Ding Zhijie that if Fannie and premises of the U.S. bankruptcy, the U.S. real estate market is a serious blow, but it will also jeopardize the overall U.S. economic growth.
Fannie and premises of the United States by the handling of the housing mortgage loan a total of about 5 trillion U.S. dollars, accounted for almost U.S. mortgage half of the total. Wall Street is worried that if these two companies lost the ability to repay, the United States, loan-to-crisis will deteriorate further.
"The U.S. government will not sit idly by Fannie and premises of the U.S. bankruptcy, the Government will take steps to remedy. The Fed may have two open discount windows, the Government may also be some form of direct take over the two companies. As for how Rescue, the United States there are also highly controversial. "Ding Zhijie said.
The U.S. Senate on the 11th approved by a majority vote in favour of a total 300 billion U.S. dollars of the rescue plan to help hundreds of thousands unable to pay for the purchase of property to retain, through the strengthening of the mortgage company's real estate market by easing regulatory Affected.
However, the U.S. government announced the rescue Fannie and premises of the United States and the news What people seem to believe that the U.S. financial markets are still fragile and there is instability in-depth development of the trend, the loan-to-crisis to calm waves from the second wave of heinous.
In the State of California, IndyMac Bank FSB's assets on the 11th was the federal regulators shut down, resulting in the industry on the loan-to-crisis further aggravated the worries, some analysts worried that the next will also have big financial institutions follow suit.
July 11, U.S. President George W. Bush said that Americans are in the current "economic hard times." The loan-to-the world economic crisis but also to bring greater volatility.
Ding Zhijie that the current loan-to-crisis, mainly in the U.S. financial fields, and the entities of the United States did not cause substantial economic damage, the U.S. real economy will not wave to the sharp drop in waves. Moreover, the loan-to-crisis not only from the U.S. economy to bear, through the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, the loan-to-crisis has also shifted to other countries, the share of the global economy more crises. If the United States, loan-to-crisis breaks out, then the world economy will have greater volatility.
Prospects dim
"The United States, the crisis is not over yet credits, and in the short term will not end." Ding Zhijie said that the loan-to-crisis is not optimistic about the future trend depends on the United States to take measures to deal with.
Ding Zhijie, Fannie and premises of the United States mainly engaged in "substandard housing mortgage loans," other than the mortgage business, the U.S. housing market bubble burst triggered by "secondary mortgage crisis," it would be possible to a wider range of "housing mortgage Loan crisis "evolution, which will further increase U.S. and global financial turmoil of risk.
Statistics show that in June the U.S. housing foreclosure (due to long-term mortgage buyers can not repay loans on time, and the loss of housing as collateral for the redemption), which had increased by 53 percent in volume, reaching 252,000, the banks need to To recover the housing surge nearly three times.
Ding Zhijie believe that this order Fannie and premises of the United States and the provision of capital levels continue to rise increasingly tense. U.S. credit market to the global stock market turmoil has brought about enormous losses, if the two mortgage agencies has resulted in the U.S. housing market further deterioration of the crisis, triggered the U.S. economy into full recession, it is bound to create a new global economic impact.
Last summer, the United States, loan-to-full-blown crisis, the United States Government has adopted a series of interventions to prevent loan-to-dimensional crisis in the U.S. economy into recession. U.S. Federal Reserve Board has lowered seven times the federal funds rate that commercial banks charge each other on overnight call rate to make it from 5.25% to 2%. At the same time, the Fed has taken a series of measures to the financial system to inject capital, to ease the credit crunch. April of this year, after several months of the financial market turmoil had signs of relaxation.
However, the U.S. Government's measures have been力不从心, investor confidence plummeted, a direct result of Fannie Mae and the premises of the United States and the brink of bankruptcy, the second-largest U.S. financial institutions IndyMac Bank FSB collapse. Some analysts believe that the second wave of the loan-to-crisis broke out, will soon lead to global financial instability.
"In the United States to take measures at the same time, inflation is global warming, a study showed that more than 50 countries worldwide to achieve double-digit inflation index, which is the loan-to-crisis brought about by damage to the global role of the United States is to transfer to other crisis The results of the country. "Ding Zhijie said that the loan-to-resolve the crisis in relations to the world's major economies in the interests of the game, it is difficult to expect the loan-to-crisis to the next step is to develop what extent, but the current real estate market is deteriorating.
Wall Street analysts recently that the U.S. housing market downturn and structured finance caused by excessive "credit recession" will last at least two years, the financial sector will experience a large-scale integration. However, if the reorganization is too hasty, would trigger a global economic war.
"Real Estate Institute of Asia and the 13th annual meeting of the International Seminar", the University of California at Berkeley Professor, UC Berkeley director of the Center for Real Estate John has said that the loan-to-crisis will continue to deepen, the situation might in 2010 after the Will be improved.
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Federal National Mortgage Association ( "Fannie Mae") and the Federal Housing Loan Mortgage Corporation (referred to as "the premises of the United States") is the nation's two largest non-bank mortgage companies, is controlled by private investors but by the U.S. Government Support for the special financial institutions. Fannie Mae was established in 1938, was Roosevelt's New Deal for the loan market to provide liquidity tool. In order to avoid monopolization of the market, the United States to set up premises in 1970. The two companies main business is from the mortgage companies, banks and other lending institutions to purchase mortgage loans and mortgage securities part of the package after the sale to other investors.
To 2008, Fannie and premises and the United States has secured mortgage loans had reached 5.2 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for almost Banbiheshan to go to the U.S. loan market. All in the mortgage business of companies, from Citibank to small local banks, must rely on Fannie Mae and premises of the United States access to funds, almost all of the Wall Street financial institutions and their business dealings. World central banks have put their bonds as part of foreign exchange reserves. As Fannie and premises of the United States and the United States for the whole financial industry to provide liquidity, these two companies was even likened to America's "second Fed."
2007 outbreak of the loan-to-crisis, the U.S. secondary mortgage market suffered damage, Fannie and premises of the United States also can not escape the impact. The first quarter of 2008, Fannie Mae announced only loss of assets amounted to 2.19 billion U.S. dollars. From December last year, so far, the premises of the United States and Fannie Mae has lost about 11 billion U.S. dollars. With the loan-to-the impact of the crisis gradually conduction, Fannie and premises of the United States seriously suffering from a greater test.
Resurgence of the aftermath
"The loan-to-market financial crisis on the impact has not ended, especially the U.S. credit market fluctuations, through Fannie Mae and the United States and reflected in the premises." Foreign Economic and Trade University Ding Zhijie, vice president of financial institutes to this reporter said.
Fannie and premises belonging to the United States by private investors but by holding the U.S. government to support the special financial institutions, the main business is housing mortgage loans. Fannie and premises of the United States is the U.S. housing mortgage loans the major source of funding.
Lehman Brothers issued a report on the 7th of this month, Fannie Mae and premises of the United States and the two companies may be facing a serious shortage of funds, will be forced to raise 75 billion U.S. dollars of funds to continue to engage in mortgage-related business. The report also is expected, the two companies will suffer more losses. The news exacerbated investors concerns.
July 11, the two largest U.S. real estate credit companies Fannie Mae and premises of the U.S. stock prices plummeted after the two companies was down 1 at 50%, although the late decline narrowed, but also created a-week high Decreased by 73% and 62% of the alarming rate.
Ding Zhijie that if Fannie and premises of the U.S. bankruptcy, the U.S. real estate market is a serious blow, but it will also jeopardize the overall U.S. economic growth.
Fannie and premises of the United States by the handling of the housing mortgage loan a total of about 5 trillion U.S. dollars, accounted for almost U.S. mortgage half of the total. Wall Street is worried that if these two companies lost the ability to repay, the United States, loan-to-crisis will deteriorate further.
"The U.S. government will not sit idly by Fannie and premises of the U.S. bankruptcy, the Government will take steps to remedy. The Fed may have two open discount windows, the Government may also be some form of direct take over the two companies. As for how Rescue, the United States there are also highly controversial. "Ding Zhijie said.
The U.S. Senate on the 11th approved by a majority vote in favour of a total 300 billion U.S. dollars of the rescue plan to help hundreds of thousands unable to pay for the purchase of property to retain, through the strengthening of the mortgage company's real estate market by easing regulatory Affected.
However, the U.S. government announced the rescue Fannie and premises of the United States and the news What people seem to believe that the U.S. financial markets are still fragile and there is instability in-depth development of the trend, the loan-to-crisis to calm waves from the second wave of heinous.
In the State of California, IndyMac Bank FSB's assets on the 11th was the federal regulators shut down, resulting in the industry on the loan-to-crisis further aggravated the worries, some analysts worried that the next will also have big financial institutions follow suit.
July 11, U.S. President George W. Bush said that Americans are in the current "economic hard times." The loan-to-the world economic crisis but also to bring greater volatility.
Ding Zhijie that the current loan-to-crisis, mainly in the U.S. financial fields, and the entities of the United States did not cause substantial economic damage, the U.S. real economy will not wave to the sharp drop in waves. Moreover, the loan-to-crisis not only from the U.S. economy to bear, through the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, the loan-to-crisis has also shifted to other countries, the share of the global economy more crises. If the United States, loan-to-crisis breaks out, then the world economy will have greater volatility.
Prospects dim
"The United States, the crisis is not over yet credits, and in the short term will not end." Ding Zhijie said that the loan-to-crisis is not optimistic about the future trend depends on the United States to take measures to deal with.
Ding Zhijie, Fannie and premises of the United States mainly engaged in "substandard housing mortgage loans," other than the mortgage business, the U.S. housing market bubble burst triggered by "secondary mortgage crisis," it would be possible to a wider range of "housing mortgage Loan crisis "evolution, which will further increase U.S. and global financial turmoil of risk.
Statistics show that in June the U.S. housing foreclosure (due to long-term mortgage buyers can not repay loans on time, and the loss of housing as collateral for the redemption), which had increased by 53 percent in volume, reaching 252,000, the banks need to To recover the housing surge nearly three times.
Ding Zhijie believe that this order Fannie and premises of the United States and the provision of capital levels continue to rise increasingly tense. U.S. credit market to the global stock market turmoil has brought about enormous losses, if the two mortgage agencies has resulted in the U.S. housing market further deterioration of the crisis, triggered the U.S. economy into full recession, it is bound to create a new global economic impact.
Last summer, the United States, loan-to-full-blown crisis, the United States Government has adopted a series of interventions to prevent loan-to-dimensional crisis in the U.S. economy into recession. U.S. Federal Reserve Board has lowered seven times the federal funds rate that commercial banks charge each other on overnight call rate to make it from 5.25% to 2%. At the same time, the Fed has taken a series of measures to the financial system to inject capital, to ease the credit crunch. April of this year, after several months of the financial market turmoil had signs of relaxation.
However, the U.S. Government's measures have been力不从心, investor confidence plummeted, a direct result of Fannie Mae and the premises of the United States and the brink of bankruptcy, the second-largest U.S. financial institutions IndyMac Bank FSB collapse. Some analysts believe that the second wave of the loan-to-crisis broke out, will soon lead to global financial instability.
"In the United States to take measures at the same time, inflation is global warming, a study showed that more than 50 countries worldwide to achieve double-digit inflation index, which is the loan-to-crisis brought about by damage to the global role of the United States is to transfer to other crisis The results of the country. "Ding Zhijie said that the loan-to-resolve the crisis in relations to the world's major economies in the interests of the game, it is difficult to expect the loan-to-crisis to the next step is to develop what extent, but the current real estate market is deteriorating.
Wall Street analysts recently that the U.S. housing market downturn and structured finance caused by excessive "credit recession" will last at least two years, the financial sector will experience a large-scale integration. However, if the reorganization is too hasty, would trigger a global economic war.
"Real Estate Institute of Asia and the 13th annual meeting of the International Seminar", the University of California at Berkeley Professor, UC Berkeley director of the Center for Real Estate John has said that the loan-to-crisis will continue to deepen, the situation might in 2010 after the Will be improved.
News Links
Federal National Mortgage Association ( "Fannie Mae") and the Federal Housing Loan Mortgage Corporation (referred to as "the premises of the United States") is the nation's two largest non-bank mortgage companies, is controlled by private investors but by the U.S. Government Support for the special financial institutions. Fannie Mae was established in 1938, was Roosevelt's New Deal for the loan market to provide liquidity tool. In order to avoid monopolization of the market, the United States to set up premises in 1970. The two companies main business is from the mortgage companies, banks and other lending institutions to purchase mortgage loans and mortgage securities part of the package after the sale to other investors.
To 2008, Fannie and premises and the United States has secured mortgage loans had reached 5.2 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for almost Banbiheshan to go to the U.S. loan market. All in the mortgage business of companies, from Citibank to small local banks, must rely on Fannie Mae and premises of the United States access to funds, almost all of the Wall Street financial institutions and their business dealings. World central banks have put their bonds as part of foreign exchange reserves. As Fannie and premises of the United States and the United States for the whole financial industry to provide liquidity, these two companies was even likened to America's "second Fed."
2007 outbreak of the loan-to-crisis, the U.S. secondary mortgage market suffered damage, Fannie and premises of the United States also can not escape the impact. The first quarter of 2008, Fannie Mae announced only loss of assets amounted to 2.19 billion U.S. dollars. From December last year, so far, the premises of the United States and Fannie Mae has lost about 11 billion U.S. dollars. With the loan-to-the impact of the crisis gradually conduction, Fannie and premises of the United States seriously suffering from a greater test.
China's Li Ka-10 Hupanwangwei others do Jiayi
"Superman" Li Ka-shing seems to be shipped this year, the shares of poor. This week (16) overweight 5 million shares of Cheung Kong (00001, HK), Li Ka-shing has bought more than 10 times its own stock. However, it is regretted that the Cheung Kong's two major institutional shareholders, Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan Chase they are invariably choose the "Superman" under the cover of the reduction of dispersal. Along with the Cheung Kong shares fell, Li Ka-shing holdings this year, 10 times the carrying amount Fukui has been more than 54 million Hong Kong dollar.
10 overweight book Fukui 54000000
HKEx rights and interests of disclosure of information, Cheung Kong Chairman Li Ka-shing to buy 5 million shares this week three Cheung Kong Holdings, the shareholding ratio increased to 40.22%, the share price of 103.10 Hong Kong dollar holdings. According to "Daily News" statistics, since April 11, Li Ka-shing has spent 10 of the 573.8 million Hong Kong dollar bought 495.3 million shares of Cheung Kong Holdings. The average purchase price per share to 115.84 Hong Kong dollar, compared Cheung Kong Hong Kong dollar on yesterday's closing price of 104.9 higher than 10.43 percent. In other words, Li Ka-shing holdings of shares this year have been carrying Fukui 54186000 Hong Kong dollar.
From the Li Ka-shing to the interests of the HKEx to the disclosure of information can be seen, with Cheung Kong shares fell below 110 Hong Kong dollar juncture, "Superman" the pace has slowed down overweight trend.
In May 30 the same day, Li Ka-shing Hong Kong dollar to 119.90 a share, eating into 228.30 million shares, Cheung Kong, involving a total of 274 million Hong Kong dollar funds, this is also the largest holdings this year. Cheung Kong Holdings in the subsequent June 27 Hong Kong dollar fell below 110, Li Ka-shing holdings of each stock from the end of June fell to 50 million shares on July 9 and July 10 of 39.90 million shares and 27 million shares, In July 15 and July 16 respectively, were also reduced to 2 million and 5 million shares.
Institutional shareholders fled the opportunity
"Superman" the intention is obviously overweight, if not stimulate the shares rose, but at least it also hopes to maintain the confidence of investors. However, Cheung Kong's two major institutional shareholders do not seem to appreciate.
Access to Information, JP Morgan Chase on July 8 a reduction of 254.38 million shares of Cheung Kong Holdings, in accordance with its disclosure of the reduction of the price of 103.47 Hong Kong dollar, JP Morgan Chase cash in a 263 million Hong Kong dollar, from 5.1 percent stake reduced to 4.98 percent. JP Morgan Chase re-enter the market unless the holdings more than 5%, or even if the clearing and we can not know.
Compared with JP Morgan Chase, Deutsche Bank on the "take" more clean. In this year on March 19, Deutsche Bank held 5.99 percent of Cheung Kong Holdings, in the May 16 fell to 5.93 percent, while Li Ka-shing started Admission holdings in Cheung Kong, Deutsche Bank suddenly on June 2 will be holding A substantial proportion reduced to 1.99 percent.
Coincidentally, news of the President to stimulate overweight, Cheung Kong in June before actually going out wave rally. To June 2 closing price, Cheung Kong since March 18 lows rose 18.6 percent.
Superman riding the wrong rhythm »
Hong Kong stocks should be concerned about the people will not forget the success of last year, Li Superman top defectors. In October last year, in November, the Hang Seng Index at the highest level in history, Jiliuyongtui Li Ka-shing, has funded a large scale sell-off in shipping stocks and airline stocks. September 25, 2007 to November 30, Li Ka-shing points, dished out 10 China Southern Airlines (01055, HK) H shares, from 16.51 percent stake in all the way down to 0.85 percent. From November 2007, Li Ka-shing began frequent reduction of the China Ocean (01919, HK) and China Shipping Cargo (02866, HK) H shares.
According to statistics, since the end of September 2007, Li Ka-shing through the reduction of China Southern Airlines and China Ocean and the Sea Cargo, a total of more than 9 billion cash in the Hong Kong dollar. Among them, the China Ocean is Li Ka-year cumulative reduction of the maximum amount of shares, through November 1 start of the reduction of six times, from 5.167 billion Hong Kong dollar cash. Cargo from the sea in the November 2 at the beginning of four consecutive reduction of the Li Ka-shing directly generating approximately 2.404 billion Hong Kong dollar cash. After the ship in the Li Ka-shing, Hong Kong stocks was also peaked, and subsequently the market trend is that the "Superman" unique perspective.
In addition to selling on or Lee Superman there is a rose on the ability to buy. In June 2007 to July, Li Ka-shing to about 103.45 per share price of the Hong Kong dollar bought 650 million shares of Cheung Kong, and in time of three months after the Cheung Kong rose by 46 percent.
However, this time accompanied by increased holdings of shares it is the action of the stock all the way down, but also the way "cover" out of the institutional investors, Li Ka-shing Is this really riding the wrong rhythm »
The optimists believe that there must be a result of Superman shots. To yesterday's close, the Hong Kong property stocks have a 36 percent discount to net asset value, well below the historical average of 16 percent. Merrill Lynch real estate analyst KeithYeung that the supply of new flats in Hong Kong this year, less than 10,000 units, coupled with the third quarter, more than was gradually introduced a new focus, the Hong Kong property stocks expected to rally back in the fourth quarter.
However, First Shanghai Securities Ye Shangzhi to the "Daily News" said that the Hong Kong property sales growth in the rest of the year may slow down in the second half of Hong Kong property stocks fell in the first half of at least 10 percent. According to past experience, the stock market peaked in the six months, the property market will be significantly adjusted, the stock peaked in November last year, then the property market adjustment should be just beginning.
10 overweight book Fukui 54000000
HKEx rights and interests of disclosure of information, Cheung Kong Chairman Li Ka-shing to buy 5 million shares this week three Cheung Kong Holdings, the shareholding ratio increased to 40.22%, the share price of 103.10 Hong Kong dollar holdings. According to "Daily News" statistics, since April 11, Li Ka-shing has spent 10 of the 573.8 million Hong Kong dollar bought 495.3 million shares of Cheung Kong Holdings. The average purchase price per share to 115.84 Hong Kong dollar, compared Cheung Kong Hong Kong dollar on yesterday's closing price of 104.9 higher than 10.43 percent. In other words, Li Ka-shing holdings of shares this year have been carrying Fukui 54186000 Hong Kong dollar.
From the Li Ka-shing to the interests of the HKEx to the disclosure of information can be seen, with Cheung Kong shares fell below 110 Hong Kong dollar juncture, "Superman" the pace has slowed down overweight trend.
In May 30 the same day, Li Ka-shing Hong Kong dollar to 119.90 a share, eating into 228.30 million shares, Cheung Kong, involving a total of 274 million Hong Kong dollar funds, this is also the largest holdings this year. Cheung Kong Holdings in the subsequent June 27 Hong Kong dollar fell below 110, Li Ka-shing holdings of each stock from the end of June fell to 50 million shares on July 9 and July 10 of 39.90 million shares and 27 million shares, In July 15 and July 16 respectively, were also reduced to 2 million and 5 million shares.
Institutional shareholders fled the opportunity
"Superman" the intention is obviously overweight, if not stimulate the shares rose, but at least it also hopes to maintain the confidence of investors. However, Cheung Kong's two major institutional shareholders do not seem to appreciate.
Access to Information, JP Morgan Chase on July 8 a reduction of 254.38 million shares of Cheung Kong Holdings, in accordance with its disclosure of the reduction of the price of 103.47 Hong Kong dollar, JP Morgan Chase cash in a 263 million Hong Kong dollar, from 5.1 percent stake reduced to 4.98 percent. JP Morgan Chase re-enter the market unless the holdings more than 5%, or even if the clearing and we can not know.
Compared with JP Morgan Chase, Deutsche Bank on the "take" more clean. In this year on March 19, Deutsche Bank held 5.99 percent of Cheung Kong Holdings, in the May 16 fell to 5.93 percent, while Li Ka-shing started Admission holdings in Cheung Kong, Deutsche Bank suddenly on June 2 will be holding A substantial proportion reduced to 1.99 percent.
Coincidentally, news of the President to stimulate overweight, Cheung Kong in June before actually going out wave rally. To June 2 closing price, Cheung Kong since March 18 lows rose 18.6 percent.
Superman riding the wrong rhythm »
Hong Kong stocks should be concerned about the people will not forget the success of last year, Li Superman top defectors. In October last year, in November, the Hang Seng Index at the highest level in history, Jiliuyongtui Li Ka-shing, has funded a large scale sell-off in shipping stocks and airline stocks. September 25, 2007 to November 30, Li Ka-shing points, dished out 10 China Southern Airlines (01055, HK) H shares, from 16.51 percent stake in all the way down to 0.85 percent. From November 2007, Li Ka-shing began frequent reduction of the China Ocean (01919, HK) and China Shipping Cargo (02866, HK) H shares.
According to statistics, since the end of September 2007, Li Ka-shing through the reduction of China Southern Airlines and China Ocean and the Sea Cargo, a total of more than 9 billion cash in the Hong Kong dollar. Among them, the China Ocean is Li Ka-year cumulative reduction of the maximum amount of shares, through November 1 start of the reduction of six times, from 5.167 billion Hong Kong dollar cash. Cargo from the sea in the November 2 at the beginning of four consecutive reduction of the Li Ka-shing directly generating approximately 2.404 billion Hong Kong dollar cash. After the ship in the Li Ka-shing, Hong Kong stocks was also peaked, and subsequently the market trend is that the "Superman" unique perspective.
In addition to selling on or Lee Superman there is a rose on the ability to buy. In June 2007 to July, Li Ka-shing to about 103.45 per share price of the Hong Kong dollar bought 650 million shares of Cheung Kong, and in time of three months after the Cheung Kong rose by 46 percent.
However, this time accompanied by increased holdings of shares it is the action of the stock all the way down, but also the way "cover" out of the institutional investors, Li Ka-shing Is this really riding the wrong rhythm »
The optimists believe that there must be a result of Superman shots. To yesterday's close, the Hong Kong property stocks have a 36 percent discount to net asset value, well below the historical average of 16 percent. Merrill Lynch real estate analyst KeithYeung that the supply of new flats in Hong Kong this year, less than 10,000 units, coupled with the third quarter, more than was gradually introduced a new focus, the Hong Kong property stocks expected to rally back in the fourth quarter.
However, First Shanghai Securities Ye Shangzhi to the "Daily News" said that the Hong Kong property sales growth in the rest of the year may slow down in the second half of Hong Kong property stocks fell in the first half of at least 10 percent. According to past experience, the stock market peaked in the six months, the property market will be significantly adjusted, the stock peaked in November last year, then the property market adjustment should be just beginning.
Tokyo stocks down technology stocks and trade stocks,
Japan's stock market Nikkei Index fell 0.7 percent Friday, fell for the sixth straight week. U.S. companies such as Google announced the disappointing performance, Kyocera and other high-tech stocks fell.
Mitsubishi things such as trade stocks fell as oil prices fell for three days to over 15 U.S. dollars.
JP Morgan Chase reported better-than-expected earnings, incentives rose in early, but after taking gains for the United States announced after the close of Google, Microsoft and Merrill Lynch earnings than analysts have expected.
Later today there will be more earnings登场the United States, including Citigroup's performance in this long holiday weekend before the Lagao the market cautious atmosphere.
"Meiguzhongcuo will be a big risk, especially the Nasdaq, while the high-tech stocks higher degree of reliance on the Japanese stock market is particularly susceptible to the impact of the Nasdaq trend." Shinko Securities senior technical analyst Yutaka Miura said.
"The market has reflected the U.S. financial industry will announce results of the bleak subject matter, but no one expected that the performance of the IT industry does not look good. Tension between the strong market today."
Nikkei Index was down 84.25 points at 12803.70, down 1.8 percent the week.
The broader TOPIX index was down 0.9 percent to 1,252.43.
"Medium and long term, although U.S. authorities have always stressed that Fannie Mae will support the mortgage and the United States, but ineffective, people are worried." Mitsubishi UJF Securities analyst said Seiichi Miura.
Mitsubishi things such as trade stocks fell as oil prices fell for three days to over 15 U.S. dollars.
JP Morgan Chase reported better-than-expected earnings, incentives rose in early, but after taking gains for the United States announced after the close of Google, Microsoft and Merrill Lynch earnings than analysts have expected.
Later today there will be more earnings登场the United States, including Citigroup's performance in this long holiday weekend before the Lagao the market cautious atmosphere.
"Meiguzhongcuo will be a big risk, especially the Nasdaq, while the high-tech stocks higher degree of reliance on the Japanese stock market is particularly susceptible to the impact of the Nasdaq trend." Shinko Securities senior technical analyst Yutaka Miura said.
"The market has reflected the U.S. financial industry will announce results of the bleak subject matter, but no one expected that the performance of the IT industry does not look good. Tension between the strong market today."
Nikkei Index was down 84.25 points at 12803.70, down 1.8 percent the week.
The broader TOPIX index was down 0.9 percent to 1,252.43.
"Medium and long term, although U.S. authorities have always stressed that Fannie Mae will support the mortgage and the United States, but ineffective, people are worried." Mitsubishi UJF Securities analyst said Seiichi Miura.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission response to the current stock market five hot issues
Yesterday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission in charge of relevant departments said that the SFC to grasp the rhythm of new shares issued will take into account all views. At the same time, the stock fund positions has declined, to a large extent is due to the market value of fund shares led the decline, the day-to-day monitoring found no presence "Zapan" and other illegal acts. The person in charge said that the futures and financing Rongquan, such as the GEM and there is no timetable for innovation, but the preparation work is still going on. For Li Li electronic problems, the SFC has also asked relevant agencies and relevant departments to carry out verification. Size initiative on a number of non-extension of the lock period, the above-mentioned persons responded that this was "a lock to climb 2" on the basis of the shareholders to make arrangements for the lock period, the market is the conduct of its own choice.
To grasp the rhythm of new shares issued will take into account all views
The market of public opinion - the weakness in the market situation, the issue of new shares should be reduced, and strictly controls the refinancing of listed companies.
SFC responsible officials of relevant departments, said: "SFC to grasp the rhythm of new shares issued will take into account all views."
Root, from January to June this year, A shares of the IPO financing of 94 billion yuan, a year earlier to 136.3 billion yuan this year, financing for less than 70 percent of the same period last year. Public offering of 100 million shares over the market shares, issued from January to June last year, 11, funding 126.747 billion yuan, issued the same period this year only four, fund-raising 64.319 billion yuan, the issue of home financing for the same period last year and were down by 64% and 49 %.
When the financing aspect of the binding role in the secondary market will become more pronounced. January to June this year, the SFC approved the 88 companies refinancing, of which only 69 companies completed the refinancing, raising funds become available, while 19 companies had been approved get approval, but also approved by the approval of six months The period of waiting for the issuance of the window. For additional targeted to be implemented, because the secondary market fell more, we should also consider whether the reserve price adjustment issue. Above that, "This shows that the secondary market on the refinancing of listed companies is very strong binding."
"After years of reform and development, listed companies and financing the secondary market more closely, the movements of the secondary market financing bound by very real strengthened." Apart from the aforementioned refinancing market to a sharp bound, with the overall market this year Point-and price-earnings ratio of the decline, IPO enterprise sector companies with stock prices down, making the frame of reference of new shares issued decreased. Pricing has been issued from the results of the company, the SFC before the window guidance - such as small and medium-sized plate 30 times the issue price-earnings ratio - this year in real terms has been bound by the market mechanism to replace the standard form of pricing, the buyer and the seller has the mentality of the new shares Issue more fully in part reflected. At the same time, the first day of listing of new shares or indeed compared with the same period last year dropped more, issuers, underwriters and Request object in the IPO pricing also became more cautious.
The official stressed that the current Commission is also exploring ways to further deepen the reform issue, and further play the role of market mechanisms and give full play to the market in resource allocation in the role, and strive to promote the smooth development of the market.
Comments: June 22, the China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Shang Fulin said, to "adhere to market-oriented, reasonable balance between market supply and demand, orderly adjustment financing rhythm." Ultimately, the market boom cycle on the issue of binding effect is the last word. Do not forget that the 2005 to 2007 the average price-earnings ratio of new shares issued from 20.4 times to 28.2 times, representing an increase of 38 percent over the same period the secondary market average price-earnings ratio from 24.2 times all the way up to a maximum of 69.6 times, increases 127%, a lot of money hoarding in a new market, the public opinion that returnees were too low proportion of shares issued. Also not forget that in 2006 the market has also experienced Air break the embarrassing situation.
Stock value shrank found no impact on fund positions, such as illegal phenomenon Zapan
The market of public opinion - as the market weakness, the Fund's shares continue to drop positions, funds and other institutions should strengthen the supervision of, and advocate the value of investments.
SFC responsible officials of relevant departments, said: "This year, the stock fund positions has declined, to a large extent is due to the market value of fund shares led the decline."
The parties highly concerned about the market shares of the fund positions of the decline, the SFC responsible officials of relevant departments said that this year since the partial shares of the Fund's equity positions have indeed dropped, but many people ignored the stock market decline led to a decline in the positions Factors.
The analysis, even if a fund is not sold, when the index fell lead to changes in market value of shareholdings, as the Fund's portfolio in bonds and cash do not change, the Fund's equity positions will decline for the performance.
Regulatory departments of the Fund of the day-to-day monitoring shows that the recent fund companies were found between the Fund and other agencies or between each other Zapan, and other illegal acts, the fund investment ratio and stock positions also are in line with the contractual agreement.
These people said, regulators will continue to pay great attention to the future fund investment transactions, the existence of such illegal acts will be punished according to law. In addition, will also continue to urge the fund management companies establish a sound business sense, better fulfill its fiduciary duty to fund investors to provide better banking services.
"Fund as a capital market institutional investors, their investment behavior affected by many factors, including the Fund's own risk and return characteristics of style, the trend of the market, the fund manager's investment philosophy as well as their economic development and macro-control of the judgement And so on. As for open-end fund, the fund's purchase of the Fund to redeem the situation will have a direct impact on investment behavior. "The people believe that the above sense, the fluctuations in the market, fund management companies as a trustee of the property The administrator of the fund positions and adjust to the sale of shares of the decision-making, should be the norm.
Comments: The fund day-to-day transactions in recent years, the SFC and the Stock Exchange of trust in banks have been set up real-time monitoring mechanisms, focus on whether there is abnormal fund transactions, the proportion of positions, whether the required percentage of shareholding. Fund of further improvement, not only depends on the regulatory departments of supervision and guidance, also depends on market structure and function of further improved, more fund companies really depends on a "entrusted by the people, the generation financial management" concept.
Rongquan view that there is no timetable for the launch GEM
The market of public opinion - is the launch stock index futures, financing and the GEM Rongquan a good time.
SFC responsible officials of relevant departments, said: "(the innovation) has done a lot of pre-preparation work, but as soon as possible launch of the restricted number of factors. There was no specific timetable, but has been carrying out preparatory work."
The official stressed that the SFC has always attached importance to financial innovation and the promotion of institutional innovation, product innovation, the market system innovation, system innovation, the SFC has been the focus of the work. Promote the view that, financing and the GEM Rongquan, such as innovation, to examine their own system of readiness, technology readiness, risk assessment, improve the level of risk-control mechanism - "a very good thing, in preparation for improper arrangement of The launch will be a lot of problems. "
Similarly, "a good thing if the timing is not immediately launched, there are problems." The people that, in addition to the relevant decision-making mechanisms and decision-making procedures, the larger changes in the market environment this year, the international and domestic situation of China's economic impact on the formation of More uncertain factors. "These new situation, the need for careful assessment, when the introduction of the innovation, there is no specific timetable, but has been carrying out preparatory work."
Comments: June 20, Shang Fulin, in an exclusive interview with this newspaper pointed out, "To strengthen market infrastructure and institutional building a consistent manner on the strategic level, to resolve the institutional development of the market, the mechanism of the problem and improve the operation of the market The efficiency and overall competitiveness. "It should be said that the SFC to promote the system, the attitude of product innovation, is unwavering.
Li Li is the electronic verification issues
The market of public opinion - Li Li electronic exposed prior to listing the existing problems, and regulatory departments should be strict verification.
SFC responsible officials of relevant departments, said: "The media queries, the SFC has asked the relevant bodies and relevant departments to verify, in fact, the media questioned the issue of the SFC review of the IPO process, has been to focus on. Against the market Response, the Commission has once again its verification, verification is still in progress. "
It is learned that early in March this year, the legislature will introduce legislation on electronic ago, has its pre-disclosure of the company's assets, operations, personnel relations fully disclosed. SFC review process, also asked relevant agencies and parties issued a written opinion, and on June 18 published in detail in the prospectus for the disclosure. "Legislation by the legislature triggered by the electronic issuance of new shares the concern of the audit, in fact, the SFC has been the focus of attention. Legislature of the legislation in electronic, pre-disclosure to the SFC to further improve the system, from the second half of this year , We will advance to the pre-disclosure of the SFC feedback response phase, to strengthen all aspects of market constraints, strengthen the relevant audit. "
The official stressed that the SFC has been actively promoting the reform of the system of new shares issued: First of all, trying to play a more intermediary role. Improve the system as a sponsor, the sponsor institutions and increase the responsibility of the sponsor representative to the due diligence and internal control play a role. The SFC issued in the Department level, the disclosure of pre-launch system, increase transparency and restraint. At the same time, Fashen Wei from the beginning of the end of 2003 to reform, transparency and resolve pending issues of concern to some. In the rear part of the issue, pricing of the market-oriented reforms. But "the ultimate stock can be bought, or the investors to make their own judgement."
Comments: SFC Chairman Shang Fulin pointed out that the issuance monitoring system of direct financing system is the most important component of one of the sponsor system, Fashen Wei system, Request system constitutes a regulatory issue at this stage the basis of the system. SFC in recent years gradually push forward reform of the three systems, the ability of the sponsors, pricing power, the processing capacity and various kinds of intermediary institutions and comprehensively enhance the level of practice on the basis of issuing He Zhunzhi from the transition to the registration system方才with the conditions.
It must be pointed out that in the sponsor system in the course of the operation, the SFC has three sponsors of the agencies, 17 representative to the sponsors in a certain period of time will not be accepted or not accepted the recommendation issued by their listing applications, such as conversation reminded Regulatory measures.
Lock-size extended period of market behavior
The market of public opinion - some the size of the company offered to delay the reduction of non-measures, supervision and management departments should be encouraged.
SFC official said the relevant departments: the size of non-extension of lock-in "a lock to climb 2" on the basis of the shareholders to make arrangements for the lock period, the market is the conduct of its own choice.
"Strictly speaking, the size of the non-locked short period of good or good, depending on a listed company and its shareholders the specific case may be, there is no fixed standards." The people that in the course of the SFC shares changed based on the prevailing market Situation "a lock to climb the" requirement, some companies on the basis of this to make additional commitments, some shareholders of the company spent locked after the initiative to extend the lock period, "are made based on their own judgement, are the market Of the act. "
Comments: recent initiative to extend the size of the non-lock period of the motive, more of the parties. Regardless of their motivation, it is an independent shareholders, regulators did not give value judgement, but the bottom line for the corresponding clear that the size of the non-lock period only limit - "a lock to climb 2", there is no upper limit.
To grasp the rhythm of new shares issued will take into account all views
The market of public opinion - the weakness in the market situation, the issue of new shares should be reduced, and strictly controls the refinancing of listed companies.
SFC responsible officials of relevant departments, said: "SFC to grasp the rhythm of new shares issued will take into account all views."
Root, from January to June this year, A shares of the IPO financing of 94 billion yuan, a year earlier to 136.3 billion yuan this year, financing for less than 70 percent of the same period last year. Public offering of 100 million shares over the market shares, issued from January to June last year, 11, funding 126.747 billion yuan, issued the same period this year only four, fund-raising 64.319 billion yuan, the issue of home financing for the same period last year and were down by 64% and 49 %.
When the financing aspect of the binding role in the secondary market will become more pronounced. January to June this year, the SFC approved the 88 companies refinancing, of which only 69 companies completed the refinancing, raising funds become available, while 19 companies had been approved get approval, but also approved by the approval of six months The period of waiting for the issuance of the window. For additional targeted to be implemented, because the secondary market fell more, we should also consider whether the reserve price adjustment issue. Above that, "This shows that the secondary market on the refinancing of listed companies is very strong binding."
"After years of reform and development, listed companies and financing the secondary market more closely, the movements of the secondary market financing bound by very real strengthened." Apart from the aforementioned refinancing market to a sharp bound, with the overall market this year Point-and price-earnings ratio of the decline, IPO enterprise sector companies with stock prices down, making the frame of reference of new shares issued decreased. Pricing has been issued from the results of the company, the SFC before the window guidance - such as small and medium-sized plate 30 times the issue price-earnings ratio - this year in real terms has been bound by the market mechanism to replace the standard form of pricing, the buyer and the seller has the mentality of the new shares Issue more fully in part reflected. At the same time, the first day of listing of new shares or indeed compared with the same period last year dropped more, issuers, underwriters and Request object in the IPO pricing also became more cautious.
The official stressed that the current Commission is also exploring ways to further deepen the reform issue, and further play the role of market mechanisms and give full play to the market in resource allocation in the role, and strive to promote the smooth development of the market.
Comments: June 22, the China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Shang Fulin said, to "adhere to market-oriented, reasonable balance between market supply and demand, orderly adjustment financing rhythm." Ultimately, the market boom cycle on the issue of binding effect is the last word. Do not forget that the 2005 to 2007 the average price-earnings ratio of new shares issued from 20.4 times to 28.2 times, representing an increase of 38 percent over the same period the secondary market average price-earnings ratio from 24.2 times all the way up to a maximum of 69.6 times, increases 127%, a lot of money hoarding in a new market, the public opinion that returnees were too low proportion of shares issued. Also not forget that in 2006 the market has also experienced Air break the embarrassing situation.
Stock value shrank found no impact on fund positions, such as illegal phenomenon Zapan
The market of public opinion - as the market weakness, the Fund's shares continue to drop positions, funds and other institutions should strengthen the supervision of, and advocate the value of investments.
SFC responsible officials of relevant departments, said: "This year, the stock fund positions has declined, to a large extent is due to the market value of fund shares led the decline."
The parties highly concerned about the market shares of the fund positions of the decline, the SFC responsible officials of relevant departments said that this year since the partial shares of the Fund's equity positions have indeed dropped, but many people ignored the stock market decline led to a decline in the positions Factors.
The analysis, even if a fund is not sold, when the index fell lead to changes in market value of shareholdings, as the Fund's portfolio in bonds and cash do not change, the Fund's equity positions will decline for the performance.
Regulatory departments of the Fund of the day-to-day monitoring shows that the recent fund companies were found between the Fund and other agencies or between each other Zapan, and other illegal acts, the fund investment ratio and stock positions also are in line with the contractual agreement.
These people said, regulators will continue to pay great attention to the future fund investment transactions, the existence of such illegal acts will be punished according to law. In addition, will also continue to urge the fund management companies establish a sound business sense, better fulfill its fiduciary duty to fund investors to provide better banking services.
"Fund as a capital market institutional investors, their investment behavior affected by many factors, including the Fund's own risk and return characteristics of style, the trend of the market, the fund manager's investment philosophy as well as their economic development and macro-control of the judgement And so on. As for open-end fund, the fund's purchase of the Fund to redeem the situation will have a direct impact on investment behavior. "The people believe that the above sense, the fluctuations in the market, fund management companies as a trustee of the property The administrator of the fund positions and adjust to the sale of shares of the decision-making, should be the norm.
Comments: The fund day-to-day transactions in recent years, the SFC and the Stock Exchange of trust in banks have been set up real-time monitoring mechanisms, focus on whether there is abnormal fund transactions, the proportion of positions, whether the required percentage of shareholding. Fund of further improvement, not only depends on the regulatory departments of supervision and guidance, also depends on market structure and function of further improved, more fund companies really depends on a "entrusted by the people, the generation financial management" concept.
Rongquan view that there is no timetable for the launch GEM
The market of public opinion - is the launch stock index futures, financing and the GEM Rongquan a good time.
SFC responsible officials of relevant departments, said: "(the innovation) has done a lot of pre-preparation work, but as soon as possible launch of the restricted number of factors. There was no specific timetable, but has been carrying out preparatory work."
The official stressed that the SFC has always attached importance to financial innovation and the promotion of institutional innovation, product innovation, the market system innovation, system innovation, the SFC has been the focus of the work. Promote the view that, financing and the GEM Rongquan, such as innovation, to examine their own system of readiness, technology readiness, risk assessment, improve the level of risk-control mechanism - "a very good thing, in preparation for improper arrangement of The launch will be a lot of problems. "
Similarly, "a good thing if the timing is not immediately launched, there are problems." The people that, in addition to the relevant decision-making mechanisms and decision-making procedures, the larger changes in the market environment this year, the international and domestic situation of China's economic impact on the formation of More uncertain factors. "These new situation, the need for careful assessment, when the introduction of the innovation, there is no specific timetable, but has been carrying out preparatory work."
Comments: June 20, Shang Fulin, in an exclusive interview with this newspaper pointed out, "To strengthen market infrastructure and institutional building a consistent manner on the strategic level, to resolve the institutional development of the market, the mechanism of the problem and improve the operation of the market The efficiency and overall competitiveness. "It should be said that the SFC to promote the system, the attitude of product innovation, is unwavering.
Li Li is the electronic verification issues
The market of public opinion - Li Li electronic exposed prior to listing the existing problems, and regulatory departments should be strict verification.
SFC responsible officials of relevant departments, said: "The media queries, the SFC has asked the relevant bodies and relevant departments to verify, in fact, the media questioned the issue of the SFC review of the IPO process, has been to focus on. Against the market Response, the Commission has once again its verification, verification is still in progress. "
It is learned that early in March this year, the legislature will introduce legislation on electronic ago, has its pre-disclosure of the company's assets, operations, personnel relations fully disclosed. SFC review process, also asked relevant agencies and parties issued a written opinion, and on June 18 published in detail in the prospectus for the disclosure. "Legislation by the legislature triggered by the electronic issuance of new shares the concern of the audit, in fact, the SFC has been the focus of attention. Legislature of the legislation in electronic, pre-disclosure to the SFC to further improve the system, from the second half of this year , We will advance to the pre-disclosure of the SFC feedback response phase, to strengthen all aspects of market constraints, strengthen the relevant audit. "
The official stressed that the SFC has been actively promoting the reform of the system of new shares issued: First of all, trying to play a more intermediary role. Improve the system as a sponsor, the sponsor institutions and increase the responsibility of the sponsor representative to the due diligence and internal control play a role. The SFC issued in the Department level, the disclosure of pre-launch system, increase transparency and restraint. At the same time, Fashen Wei from the beginning of the end of 2003 to reform, transparency and resolve pending issues of concern to some. In the rear part of the issue, pricing of the market-oriented reforms. But "the ultimate stock can be bought, or the investors to make their own judgement."
Comments: SFC Chairman Shang Fulin pointed out that the issuance monitoring system of direct financing system is the most important component of one of the sponsor system, Fashen Wei system, Request system constitutes a regulatory issue at this stage the basis of the system. SFC in recent years gradually push forward reform of the three systems, the ability of the sponsors, pricing power, the processing capacity and various kinds of intermediary institutions and comprehensively enhance the level of practice on the basis of issuing He Zhunzhi from the transition to the registration system方才with the conditions.
It must be pointed out that in the sponsor system in the course of the operation, the SFC has three sponsors of the agencies, 17 representative to the sponsors in a certain period of time will not be accepted or not accepted the recommendation issued by their listing applications, such as conversation reminded Regulatory measures.
Lock-size extended period of market behavior
The market of public opinion - some the size of the company offered to delay the reduction of non-measures, supervision and management departments should be encouraged.
SFC official said the relevant departments: the size of non-extension of lock-in "a lock to climb 2" on the basis of the shareholders to make arrangements for the lock period, the market is the conduct of its own choice.
"Strictly speaking, the size of the non-locked short period of good or good, depending on a listed company and its shareholders the specific case may be, there is no fixed standards." The people that in the course of the SFC shares changed based on the prevailing market Situation "a lock to climb the" requirement, some companies on the basis of this to make additional commitments, some shareholders of the company spent locked after the initiative to extend the lock period, "are made based on their own judgement, are the market Of the act. "
Comments: recent initiative to extend the size of the non-lock period of the motive, more of the parties. Regardless of their motivation, it is an independent shareholders, regulators did not give value judgement, but the bottom line for the corresponding clear that the size of the non-lock period only limit - "a lock to climb 2", there is no upper limit.
Revelation of the oil in the divestment of coal transport network is the fuse for conflict
Huaxia Times
Divestment of oil in the coal behind: not for its own pipeline used deviated from the original intention for coalbed methane explosion is an independent mining licence
In the increasingly popular field of coal bed methane, China Petroleum (601,857) and Natural Gas Corporation (the oil) with China Coal Group of Companies (hereinafter referred to in the coal) from once a close partner, to be transformed into a strong competitor.
12 years ago, relying on the former oil and gas resources in the field of technology and the development of the latter in the field of mine Shuren, the two national enterprises in accordance with the investment ratio of 50:50, set up in the common coal bed methane limited liability company (hereinafter referred to in the Coal), in the oil and thereafter will be held assets into listed companies.
"Now two shareholders on the reorganization began, in the hope that the oil out of the coal." July 15, general manager of China United Coal Sun Mao Yuan told reporters: "Shareholders should be asked, after the reorganization, I get an interview."
Multi-understand our reporter was informed that the request to withdraw from the oil Yiranjueran in the coal, coal bed methane fields in addition to hope单打独斗, in its coal and coalbed methane in the transport network is also in dispute, the transport network conflict Can be counted as the two sides separated the fuse.
China United Coal will be achieved in the wholly-owned coal
"Once the oil do so out of the coal, coal will be in the sole control of the coal, the results will be announced in a month or two." Sun Mao Yuan to accept the Hong Kong media recently said in an interview.
International cooperation in the coal FU Xiao Hong, deputy director of the Hong Kong media also disclosed that the Hong Kong-listed PetroChina will be held in the coal sale of shares in the coal, coal in a coal in the remaining 50 per cent of the shares.
In the coal insiders confirmed to reporters: "China attaches great importance to coal bed methane in coal mining, even in the absence of oil, coal bed methane in coal fields in the development will still continue. Not only that, in the coal will also increase input power. "
In the coal is China's second largest coal group, and in different oil, coal bed methane in the field of energy into all joint venture companies in the coal on. In the coal insiders said that the exploitation of coalbed methane resources in coal, on the one hand from mine production safety guarantee starting, but also development and utilization of new energy needs.
But in the coal into coal bed methane field was not all smooth sailing, as in previous years, the local coal mine safety work seriously enough, and gas production and mining rights to the conflict in the coal mining areas in the coalbed methane has been difficult.
"From the beginning of 2006, particularly 2007, coal mine accidents occurred one after another, the national coal mine safety accidents in unprecedented attention to it." Coal network analyst Zhaoyu Wei told this reporter: "CBM exploration relatively recent fire. "
Under the current proven the results of coalbed methane resources in China total 31 trillion cubic meters, of which 16 trillion cubic meters have good development prospects, mainly concentrated in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang and other places, including Shanxi, a province of coalbed methane reserves On the country's reserves of the United States.
According to the plan, by 2020 China's natural gas demand will reach 200 billion cubic meters, nearly 50 percent of the demand will depend on imports, and coal bed methane will become an important supplement to natural gas.
Self-built pipeline intensification of the conflict »
In front of a huge market, the party is rich in coal mining experience, one of the leading oil and gas mining experience, it was almost two is golden partner, 12 contained Jieyuan Why choose breaking up »
"At that time, oil in the hope that the joint venture company owned by the 'West-East Gas Pipeline' and 'Shaanxi-Beijing second-line', transport coal bed methane." Close to the one in the coal told reporters, "but found in the coal, if the walk These two existing gas pipeline, cost-. "
Last year, Sun Mao Yuan in an exclusive interview with this reporter when he said that although the "West-East Gas Pipeline", "Shaanxi-Beijing second-line" via Shanxi Province, in theory, the two coal bed methane can be piped, but because the profit margins compared CBM Low to the "West-East Gas Pipeline" piped cost-per litre CBM take 0.3 to 0.5 yuan costs.
To this end, in the planning of coal self-built pipeline network. According to Sun Mao Yuan, to 2010, China United Coal will build four coal bed methane pipeline, are: client's - Jincheng - Pok Oi (2007),'s end - Changzhi - Lin states - Anyang - Handan (2008), South Korea - Xi'an (2009), Baode - Shaanxi-Beijing (2009), a total length of 675 km and the total design capacity of 2.2 billion cubic meters gas.
"Although can borrow some of coalbed methane natural gas pipeline, but by then, most of these new coal bed methane, mainly through the supply pipe network users." Sun Mao Yuan said.
In the coal and oil is clearly contrary to original intention of cooperation.
"In addition to rich oil and gas excavation mining experience, in the oil pipeline is the biggest competitive advantages." Zhao Yuwei that the divestment of oil go it alone, due to the hands of a few channels - West-East Gas Pipeline, is about 4,200 kilometers, investment Size of over 1,400 billion yuan, is the longest distance in China, the largest diameter gas pipeline, the Tarim Basin in the west round of the South, the North Tower is the starting point for oil, pass through Shaanxi, east to Shanghai. A total investment of 12.9 billion yuan of the Shaanxi-Beijing second-line, the west and Shaanxi Yulin, as Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing to end.
Is an independent oil in the licence application
In addition, in the coal and coalbed methane operations in general in all our energy into the various coal, oil in addition to participation in the coal, is also actively expanding its coal bed methane operations.
In March 28th at the 2007 annual performance in the oil-line investors at the exchange, oil planning in the Ministry of Planning, Deputy Chief Economist Xu Jianmei said that the coalbed methane company is "11th Five-Year Plan" identified the key development of new energy business . By the end of 2007, the company found in the Qinshui Basin of the larger reserves of coal bed methane, a certain production capacity, and launched a 3 billion deal with the side / coal bed methane in a central treatment plant construction, also in oil In preparation for the Junggar Basin, Erdos (600,295) Basin coal bed methane exploration and have achieved initial results and understanding. "11th Five-Year Plan" period, to continue to increase in oil investment in coal bed methane.
July 16, in an internal oil to the press confirmed that the oil in the area of coal bed methane has attached great importance over the past few years in Qinshui Basin, Shanxi Province has invested large amounts of funds, "the current progress is good, now have a few 100 of the wells. "
However, the divestment of the coal, these people said only: "We have just heard in the coal preparation for the shareholders of a reorganization, as a matter of the oil out, could not be confirmed by high-level."
Deserves attention is that the September 24, 2007, the State Council announced on the exploitation of land for oil resources to amend the Ordinance, Article 30 was amended to "external cooperation by the exploitation of coalbed methane resources of coal bed methane limited liability company, designated by the State Council Other companies franchise. "
According to the coal in an internal source, in cooperation with foreign countries, the oil is applied to the Government for independent development of coal bed methane licence.
It seems that in Zhaoyu Wei: "The State Council is appointed by other companies in the oil, otherwise he would not withdraw from."
Divestment of oil in the coal behind: not for its own pipeline used deviated from the original intention for coalbed methane explosion is an independent mining licence
In the increasingly popular field of coal bed methane, China Petroleum (601,857) and Natural Gas Corporation (the oil) with China Coal Group of Companies (hereinafter referred to in the coal) from once a close partner, to be transformed into a strong competitor.
12 years ago, relying on the former oil and gas resources in the field of technology and the development of the latter in the field of mine Shuren, the two national enterprises in accordance with the investment ratio of 50:50, set up in the common coal bed methane limited liability company (hereinafter referred to in the Coal), in the oil and thereafter will be held assets into listed companies.
"Now two shareholders on the reorganization began, in the hope that the oil out of the coal." July 15, general manager of China United Coal Sun Mao Yuan told reporters: "Shareholders should be asked, after the reorganization, I get an interview."
Multi-understand our reporter was informed that the request to withdraw from the oil Yiranjueran in the coal, coal bed methane fields in addition to hope单打独斗, in its coal and coalbed methane in the transport network is also in dispute, the transport network conflict Can be counted as the two sides separated the fuse.
China United Coal will be achieved in the wholly-owned coal
"Once the oil do so out of the coal, coal will be in the sole control of the coal, the results will be announced in a month or two." Sun Mao Yuan to accept the Hong Kong media recently said in an interview.
International cooperation in the coal FU Xiao Hong, deputy director of the Hong Kong media also disclosed that the Hong Kong-listed PetroChina will be held in the coal sale of shares in the coal, coal in a coal in the remaining 50 per cent of the shares.
In the coal insiders confirmed to reporters: "China attaches great importance to coal bed methane in coal mining, even in the absence of oil, coal bed methane in coal fields in the development will still continue. Not only that, in the coal will also increase input power. "
In the coal is China's second largest coal group, and in different oil, coal bed methane in the field of energy into all joint venture companies in the coal on. In the coal insiders said that the exploitation of coalbed methane resources in coal, on the one hand from mine production safety guarantee starting, but also development and utilization of new energy needs.
But in the coal into coal bed methane field was not all smooth sailing, as in previous years, the local coal mine safety work seriously enough, and gas production and mining rights to the conflict in the coal mining areas in the coalbed methane has been difficult.
"From the beginning of 2006, particularly 2007, coal mine accidents occurred one after another, the national coal mine safety accidents in unprecedented attention to it." Coal network analyst Zhaoyu Wei told this reporter: "CBM exploration relatively recent fire. "
Under the current proven the results of coalbed methane resources in China total 31 trillion cubic meters, of which 16 trillion cubic meters have good development prospects, mainly concentrated in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang and other places, including Shanxi, a province of coalbed methane reserves On the country's reserves of the United States.
According to the plan, by 2020 China's natural gas demand will reach 200 billion cubic meters, nearly 50 percent of the demand will depend on imports, and coal bed methane will become an important supplement to natural gas.
Self-built pipeline intensification of the conflict »
In front of a huge market, the party is rich in coal mining experience, one of the leading oil and gas mining experience, it was almost two is golden partner, 12 contained Jieyuan Why choose breaking up »
"At that time, oil in the hope that the joint venture company owned by the 'West-East Gas Pipeline' and 'Shaanxi-Beijing second-line', transport coal bed methane." Close to the one in the coal told reporters, "but found in the coal, if the walk These two existing gas pipeline, cost-. "
Last year, Sun Mao Yuan in an exclusive interview with this reporter when he said that although the "West-East Gas Pipeline", "Shaanxi-Beijing second-line" via Shanxi Province, in theory, the two coal bed methane can be piped, but because the profit margins compared CBM Low to the "West-East Gas Pipeline" piped cost-per litre CBM take 0.3 to 0.5 yuan costs.
To this end, in the planning of coal self-built pipeline network. According to Sun Mao Yuan, to 2010, China United Coal will build four coal bed methane pipeline, are: client's - Jincheng - Pok Oi (2007),'s end - Changzhi - Lin states - Anyang - Handan (2008), South Korea - Xi'an (2009), Baode - Shaanxi-Beijing (2009), a total length of 675 km and the total design capacity of 2.2 billion cubic meters gas.
"Although can borrow some of coalbed methane natural gas pipeline, but by then, most of these new coal bed methane, mainly through the supply pipe network users." Sun Mao Yuan said.
In the coal and oil is clearly contrary to original intention of cooperation.
"In addition to rich oil and gas excavation mining experience, in the oil pipeline is the biggest competitive advantages." Zhao Yuwei that the divestment of oil go it alone, due to the hands of a few channels - West-East Gas Pipeline, is about 4,200 kilometers, investment Size of over 1,400 billion yuan, is the longest distance in China, the largest diameter gas pipeline, the Tarim Basin in the west round of the South, the North Tower is the starting point for oil, pass through Shaanxi, east to Shanghai. A total investment of 12.9 billion yuan of the Shaanxi-Beijing second-line, the west and Shaanxi Yulin, as Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing to end.
Is an independent oil in the licence application
In addition, in the coal and coalbed methane operations in general in all our energy into the various coal, oil in addition to participation in the coal, is also actively expanding its coal bed methane operations.
In March 28th at the 2007 annual performance in the oil-line investors at the exchange, oil planning in the Ministry of Planning, Deputy Chief Economist Xu Jianmei said that the coalbed methane company is "11th Five-Year Plan" identified the key development of new energy business . By the end of 2007, the company found in the Qinshui Basin of the larger reserves of coal bed methane, a certain production capacity, and launched a 3 billion deal with the side / coal bed methane in a central treatment plant construction, also in oil In preparation for the Junggar Basin, Erdos (600,295) Basin coal bed methane exploration and have achieved initial results and understanding. "11th Five-Year Plan" period, to continue to increase in oil investment in coal bed methane.
July 16, in an internal oil to the press confirmed that the oil in the area of coal bed methane has attached great importance over the past few years in Qinshui Basin, Shanxi Province has invested large amounts of funds, "the current progress is good, now have a few 100 of the wells. "
However, the divestment of the coal, these people said only: "We have just heard in the coal preparation for the shareholders of a reorganization, as a matter of the oil out, could not be confirmed by high-level."
Deserves attention is that the September 24, 2007, the State Council announced on the exploitation of land for oil resources to amend the Ordinance, Article 30 was amended to "external cooperation by the exploitation of coalbed methane resources of coal bed methane limited liability company, designated by the State Council Other companies franchise. "
According to the coal in an internal source, in cooperation with foreign countries, the oil is applied to the Government for independent development of coal bed methane licence.
It seems that in Zhaoyu Wei: "The State Council is appointed by other companies in the oil, otherwise he would not withdraw from."
Bursts of four gold medals and a half months, said the stock market serious deviation from fundamentals
Since July 2, issued on the stock market communications,发文to comment on the stock market again today, 16 days, bursts of four gold medals. Today released this comment that: from China's current overall economic conditions, the performance of the stock market this is not normal, the valuation levels have seriously deviated from the macroeconomic fundamentals.
This year, more than half Shangzhengzongzhi down, the Shanghai stock market dropped to an average of 20 times the price-earnings ratio, lower than the historical average. Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index of shares by the end of June samples weighted average price-earnings ratio of only 15.8 times that of the United States than the Standard & Poor's 500 index was 17.4 times the past 50 years, the average price-earnings ratio is even lower.
From China's current overall economic conditions, the performance of the stock market this is not normal, the valuation levels have seriously deviated from the macroeconomic fundamentals.
It should be noted that although the Chinese economy is facing many difficulties and challenges, but is still in the expected direction of macro-control operation. National Bureau of Statistics data show that the first half of the national economy has maintained double-digit growth, reaching 10.4 percent, are of concern to the consumer price index in June to fall back to 7.1 percent.
Goldman Sachs report also stressed that in the foreseeable future, China and in developing countries than in developed countries will continue to be the most rapidly growing one of the countries, China is still a few global investors may continue to seek long-term growth opportunities for the region One.
In this encouraging data before, A-share market is out of the first half completely deviated from the losing streak, and many listed companies shares were seriously underestimated, and the capital market price discovery seems to be the basic functions of failure, these phenomena is really puzzling.
Interpretation of the market can not simply engage in such a performance, we must put non-tradable share reform after the full circulation of the context of consideration.
In the beginning of China's capital market development, as split share structure problem of the existence of two-thirds of the shares of listed companies can not flow, the market pricing be out of the question, do not reflect the actual value of the stock market is a result of The long-term downturn.
In recent years, non-tradable share reform and other measures to steadily promote the reform of the background, China's capital market has undergone profound changes, enterprises from the previous price and the market value of indifference to the present efforts to improve operating performance, and enhance market shares. Capital market price discovery function gradually increase. As an enterprise value of re-found the platform, China's capital market is playing an increasingly important role of macroeconomic and gradually showing a "barometer" of the role.
However, the full circulation environment on the one hand so that the price of the stock market found an increasingly prominent feature, on the other hand has also brought tremendous changes in the structure of the market. Old faces collapse of the valuation standards, the new valuation criteria to be established. In the new and old system of conflict, the original stock valuation model of failure, causing disorder in stock prices. From the A-share market performance, this year, the valuation in the market to find new coordinates the process, a number of shares of listed companies have emerged over-reaction to a sharp decline in the low-priced unbelievable. In such a valuation of the old system was completely destroyed and at the same time hasten the birth of the new valuation system in the process of rebuilding, A stock market investors Game two sides gradually retail and institutional investors from the confrontation, change, mainly the lifting of the ban - Shareholders and outstanding shares of common stock shareholders of the game. Substantial deviation from the value of the phenomenon of prices to pour in, this, like the first half as the stock market continued to fall in almost inevitable.
In fact, price discovery is the most basic function of the capital market, the achievement of the investment and financing, the allocation of resources, and so many other functions of the premise. Because the value of any economic factors need to gain market recognition, and in the market determine their reasonable prices. On this basis, we can expect in the short term after the disturbance, with the new balance of the established price, should reflect the true value of a reasonable valuation system will be gradually taking shape. In such a valuation system, the fundamentals of listed companies whose securities they will be real asset prices Niuer, the concept of themes from the Wu Chao withdraw from the market, the value of investment securities investment return to a reality, this is all Chinese investors By dreams of.
The international capital markets practice has proven that the size of the market is, the better liquidity, institutional investors more mature, and the capital market price discovery function of the more full play, the more assets can be more reasonable prices.
As China's economy to further integrate into the global economic cycle, asset pricing power and mechanisms will be directly related to the pricing of assets in China the right to speak, a direct impact on Chinese enterprises in international competitiveness. The future, as China's capital market system based on the gradual building of a sound, multi-level capital market system building, to further improve the structure of investors, China's stock market price discovery function will play a more fully the role of the stock market will also run with The more healthy and smooth.
Any volatility in the market actually can be described as a price discovery process. This decision of the capital market to function in a short period of time may sometimes malfunction, but the long-term vision to look to capital markets, you will find: no matter how difficult, price discovery will occur its due role in the price Will eventually return to the value. This is the eternal charm of the capital market.
This year, more than half Shangzhengzongzhi down, the Shanghai stock market dropped to an average of 20 times the price-earnings ratio, lower than the historical average. Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index of shares by the end of June samples weighted average price-earnings ratio of only 15.8 times that of the United States than the Standard & Poor's 500 index was 17.4 times the past 50 years, the average price-earnings ratio is even lower.
From China's current overall economic conditions, the performance of the stock market this is not normal, the valuation levels have seriously deviated from the macroeconomic fundamentals.
It should be noted that although the Chinese economy is facing many difficulties and challenges, but is still in the expected direction of macro-control operation. National Bureau of Statistics data show that the first half of the national economy has maintained double-digit growth, reaching 10.4 percent, are of concern to the consumer price index in June to fall back to 7.1 percent.
Goldman Sachs report also stressed that in the foreseeable future, China and in developing countries than in developed countries will continue to be the most rapidly growing one of the countries, China is still a few global investors may continue to seek long-term growth opportunities for the region One.
In this encouraging data before, A-share market is out of the first half completely deviated from the losing streak, and many listed companies shares were seriously underestimated, and the capital market price discovery seems to be the basic functions of failure, these phenomena is really puzzling.
Interpretation of the market can not simply engage in such a performance, we must put non-tradable share reform after the full circulation of the context of consideration.
In the beginning of China's capital market development, as split share structure problem of the existence of two-thirds of the shares of listed companies can not flow, the market pricing be out of the question, do not reflect the actual value of the stock market is a result of The long-term downturn.
In recent years, non-tradable share reform and other measures to steadily promote the reform of the background, China's capital market has undergone profound changes, enterprises from the previous price and the market value of indifference to the present efforts to improve operating performance, and enhance market shares. Capital market price discovery function gradually increase. As an enterprise value of re-found the platform, China's capital market is playing an increasingly important role of macroeconomic and gradually showing a "barometer" of the role.
However, the full circulation environment on the one hand so that the price of the stock market found an increasingly prominent feature, on the other hand has also brought tremendous changes in the structure of the market. Old faces collapse of the valuation standards, the new valuation criteria to be established. In the new and old system of conflict, the original stock valuation model of failure, causing disorder in stock prices. From the A-share market performance, this year, the valuation in the market to find new coordinates the process, a number of shares of listed companies have emerged over-reaction to a sharp decline in the low-priced unbelievable. In such a valuation of the old system was completely destroyed and at the same time hasten the birth of the new valuation system in the process of rebuilding, A stock market investors Game two sides gradually retail and institutional investors from the confrontation, change, mainly the lifting of the ban - Shareholders and outstanding shares of common stock shareholders of the game. Substantial deviation from the value of the phenomenon of prices to pour in, this, like the first half as the stock market continued to fall in almost inevitable.
In fact, price discovery is the most basic function of the capital market, the achievement of the investment and financing, the allocation of resources, and so many other functions of the premise. Because the value of any economic factors need to gain market recognition, and in the market determine their reasonable prices. On this basis, we can expect in the short term after the disturbance, with the new balance of the established price, should reflect the true value of a reasonable valuation system will be gradually taking shape. In such a valuation system, the fundamentals of listed companies whose securities they will be real asset prices Niuer, the concept of themes from the Wu Chao withdraw from the market, the value of investment securities investment return to a reality, this is all Chinese investors By dreams of.
The international capital markets practice has proven that the size of the market is, the better liquidity, institutional investors more mature, and the capital market price discovery function of the more full play, the more assets can be more reasonable prices.
As China's economy to further integrate into the global economic cycle, asset pricing power and mechanisms will be directly related to the pricing of assets in China the right to speak, a direct impact on Chinese enterprises in international competitiveness. The future, as China's capital market system based on the gradual building of a sound, multi-level capital market system building, to further improve the structure of investors, China's stock market price discovery function will play a more fully the role of the stock market will also run with The more healthy and smooth.
Any volatility in the market actually can be described as a price discovery process. This decision of the capital market to function in a short period of time may sometimes malfunction, but the long-term vision to look to capital markets, you will find: no matter how difficult, price discovery will occur its due role in the price Will eventually return to the value. This is the eternal charm of the capital market.
From previous Olympic host country's stock market performance of Chinese A-share operating trends
As time Feishi, Zhuanyan Jian Beijing Olympic Games have been close at hand, whether China can successfully hold the Olympic Games has become the focus of attention of the world, and the success of the Olympic Games organized, we can not simply use the venue perfect, well-equipped, courteous service, all races Whether or not to complete the successful completion of the definition.
As embodied in the Olympic Games is not only the standard of sports competition, more of the host country's comprehensive national strength. The stock market is the national economy "barometer", the stock market's performance in this period, can fully reflect the Olympics to organize the opportunity for development. Political stability, economic prosperity, the stock market steadily upward, this is the Olympic Games successfully held a good environment. As the stock market one, I think, Bainianyiyu the success of the Olympic Games in Beijing, the only market with waves surging out of the market, can be called on is the real success! Combination of several previous successful hosting of the Olympic Games of the country's economy and stock market Performance, we can generally be outlining our country's future economic blueprint, and the direction of the stock market.
1988 Seoul (now Seoul) Olympics, Seoul, Korea Composite Stock Price Index in 1986, 1987 and 1988 these three years, a record 68.9 percent, respectively, 98.29 percent and 70.51 percent a year or, in 1988, and December 15 Japan hit a record high of 930 points. After the Olympics, the stock market or in a declining trend. 1993 successful bid to host the 2000 Sydney Olympics, when the stock market in the country that set a 40 percent increase, and since 1993 the Australian stock market started the trend was continuing up to the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games held in eight years, the total rose 103 percent, only during the A slight pullback in 1994. After the 2000 Olympics because of the economic impetus, from 2000 to 2006 in six years, Australia Ordinaries index was up 76.07 percent. Australian Olympic Economy of the stock market has driven long-term effect, the effect both in the preparations for the Olympic Games period, held during and subsequent years continued to play a role.
From the States in the Olympics before and after the development of GDP, a year before the Olympics and most of that year's GDP growth rate higher, such as South Korea, Spain, Australia's GDP growth rate was 11.10 percent, 10.64 percent, 9.66 percent and 7.70 percent; 4.36 percent, 3.41 percent, but most of the Olympic Games after the end of the downward trend, such as the above three countries held the Olympic Games after the first year data were 6.74 percent, 3.46 percent and 2.15 percent. However, the U.S. exception, the United States three years with the GDP trend contrary to other countries, GDP growth rates were 4.60 percent, 5.67 percent and 6.24 percent. Clearly, the Olympic Games for the country's economic role in promoting Bukexiaoshi.
Under the current public information, the past six Olympic Games host country, stock prices one year ago in the Olympic all up, the rate of 14.39 percent to 96.74 percent between the Olympic Games was held only one of the index fell and the rest are rising, or 2.8% in To 69.54 percent between organized after the first year all up, the range of 0.28 percent to 54.2 percent between organized the first two years or more rose less. Data from the above, recalled before the Olympic Games in China's stock market trend is also a stock market similar to the above-mentioned countries and areas. Chinese Olympic years ago, on October 16, 2007, also hit a record high of 6124.04 points, while GDP growth rate with South Korea, Spain, Australia and other countries were compared gone beyond.
Through the above comparison, the author can be sure, the A shares have been or can not be dropped, the Olympic Games Quotes about to begin, especially after the market after Shenfudiaozheng up tremendous space. At present, whether from the perspective of valuation or investment, the market has fully with the conditions and a rising power.
As embodied in the Olympic Games is not only the standard of sports competition, more of the host country's comprehensive national strength. The stock market is the national economy "barometer", the stock market's performance in this period, can fully reflect the Olympics to organize the opportunity for development. Political stability, economic prosperity, the stock market steadily upward, this is the Olympic Games successfully held a good environment. As the stock market one, I think, Bainianyiyu the success of the Olympic Games in Beijing, the only market with waves surging out of the market, can be called on is the real success! Combination of several previous successful hosting of the Olympic Games of the country's economy and stock market Performance, we can generally be outlining our country's future economic blueprint, and the direction of the stock market.
1988 Seoul (now Seoul) Olympics, Seoul, Korea Composite Stock Price Index in 1986, 1987 and 1988 these three years, a record 68.9 percent, respectively, 98.29 percent and 70.51 percent a year or, in 1988, and December 15 Japan hit a record high of 930 points. After the Olympics, the stock market or in a declining trend. 1993 successful bid to host the 2000 Sydney Olympics, when the stock market in the country that set a 40 percent increase, and since 1993 the Australian stock market started the trend was continuing up to the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games held in eight years, the total rose 103 percent, only during the A slight pullback in 1994. After the 2000 Olympics because of the economic impetus, from 2000 to 2006 in six years, Australia Ordinaries index was up 76.07 percent. Australian Olympic Economy of the stock market has driven long-term effect, the effect both in the preparations for the Olympic Games period, held during and subsequent years continued to play a role.
From the States in the Olympics before and after the development of GDP, a year before the Olympics and most of that year's GDP growth rate higher, such as South Korea, Spain, Australia's GDP growth rate was 11.10 percent, 10.64 percent, 9.66 percent and 7.70 percent; 4.36 percent, 3.41 percent, but most of the Olympic Games after the end of the downward trend, such as the above three countries held the Olympic Games after the first year data were 6.74 percent, 3.46 percent and 2.15 percent. However, the U.S. exception, the United States three years with the GDP trend contrary to other countries, GDP growth rates were 4.60 percent, 5.67 percent and 6.24 percent. Clearly, the Olympic Games for the country's economic role in promoting Bukexiaoshi.
Under the current public information, the past six Olympic Games host country, stock prices one year ago in the Olympic all up, the rate of 14.39 percent to 96.74 percent between the Olympic Games was held only one of the index fell and the rest are rising, or 2.8% in To 69.54 percent between organized after the first year all up, the range of 0.28 percent to 54.2 percent between organized the first two years or more rose less. Data from the above, recalled before the Olympic Games in China's stock market trend is also a stock market similar to the above-mentioned countries and areas. Chinese Olympic years ago, on October 16, 2007, also hit a record high of 6124.04 points, while GDP growth rate with South Korea, Spain, Australia and other countries were compared gone beyond.
Through the above comparison, the author can be sure, the A shares have been or can not be dropped, the Olympic Games Quotes about to begin, especially after the market after Shenfudiaozheng up tremendous space. At present, whether from the perspective of valuation or investment, the market has fully with the conditions and a rising power.
China's stock market long-term basis is not good to change
Investors worried about the macroeconomic data off this year on the 17th出炉. The first half of the 10.4 percent economic growth rate, 7.1 percent of the June consumer price level (CPI), the two main data show that China's stock market has not been a good foundation for a long time to change.
"China's economy is still on the track of stable and healthy operation and long-term, this is the operation of the stock market good." Everbright Securities Li Kang, director of the Institute of such data to make such interpretation.
Steady and rapid economic growth
For some time now, with the stock market and the macro-economic ties are becoming ever closer, most economic data as investors concerned about the information.
National Bureau of Statistics data show that the first half of this year economic growth rate down 1.8 percentage points, both of which take the initiative to control our country, adopted a series of measures to prevent economic growth from overheating too fast to the relevant, at the same time, and the world economic downturn, foreign demand Of the sluggish, but the adverse external factors did not seriously affect China's economic growth.
Kang Li that although this year, global inflationary pressures intensify, the world economic slowdown, but China's economy has not been much affected. This shows the effectiveness of China's macro-control Obviously, on the other hand is also due to strong growth in domestic demand, China's economy remains relatively strong growth momentum.
Guotai Junan Securities, Jiang Chao, the first half of the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of better than expected, coupled with the name of investment to maintain high growth rate, which indicates that a sharp drop in GDP this year is unlikely that economic growth will continue .
The stock market is expected to future economic responses to the steady and rapid economic growth will be the trend of the stock market decide the most basic factors. China Merchants Securities, Xuehua believes that the current economic growth rate is higher in the last year on the basis of the same period last year economic growth rate was 12.2%. From this we can see that the current economic growth rate is still higher.
For the third quarter, the stock market optimism
Remove to maintain economic growth, consumer price level there is expected in the fall. National Bureau of Statistics chief economist Yao Jingyuan said that in May and June CPI up or whether the ring had declined. Before the year is expected to show a trend of high to low. This shows that the macroeconomic regulation and control excessive rise in the price suppression achieved remarkable results. CPI in the second half will continue to fall.
Jiang Chao, June CPI down in line with market expectations, its positive role may have been ahead of digestion, and in the context of sustained economic growth, inflation pressures remain significant.
Deserves attention is that the June factory price of industrial products (PPI) rose 8.8 percent, or higher than the same period last year 4.8 percentage points, PPI and CPI movements are still differences between the continuation of the situation. Analysts point out that in this trend, profits will be further transferred to the upstream sector, which is in the upstream sector of the listed companies is good, but the downstream businesses will be subject to a certain degree of impact.
In the short term, the trend of decisions in the stock market a variety of factors, may arise with the temporary departure from the macroeconomic. But in the long term, the stock market and real economic trend will remain consistent. Entities economic growth, reflected in the stock market, investors will be to increase the wealth of the results. In other words, the long-term perspective, if the fast economic growth, the stock market Jiuwang up.
After the early sharp fall in the macroeconomic fundamentals remain unchanged against the background of the investors for the future of the stock market is also expected to change. Global Financial Services Group (ING) recently issued a survey report shows that Chinese investors the second quarter, the overall sentiment index fell, but remain optimistic about the third quarter, the stock market. According to the survey, 66 percent of the investors in the third quarter, are optimistic about the economy, 62 percent of investors expect the third quarter rate of return on investment will be increased.
The survey also showed that the impact of price increases, 79 percent of the respondents intend to re-configure the current investment portfolio and (or) to increase investment to cope with inflation. In that portfolio will be re-configured and (or) to increase investment to cope with inflation of the respondents, 42 percent of the people are considering investment in gold, 40 percent of people are considering investing in stocks.
Analysts point out that, although the first half of the Chinese economy has maintained steady and rapid development, but it should be noted that the world economic slowdown on the negative impact of China's economy is gradually appear. The judgement of the short-term trend of the stock market itself, in addition to fundamentals, but also needs to integrate the many complex factors.
"China's economy is still on the track of stable and healthy operation and long-term, this is the operation of the stock market good." Everbright Securities Li Kang, director of the Institute of such data to make such interpretation.
Steady and rapid economic growth
For some time now, with the stock market and the macro-economic ties are becoming ever closer, most economic data as investors concerned about the information.
National Bureau of Statistics data show that the first half of this year economic growth rate down 1.8 percentage points, both of which take the initiative to control our country, adopted a series of measures to prevent economic growth from overheating too fast to the relevant, at the same time, and the world economic downturn, foreign demand Of the sluggish, but the adverse external factors did not seriously affect China's economic growth.
Kang Li that although this year, global inflationary pressures intensify, the world economic slowdown, but China's economy has not been much affected. This shows the effectiveness of China's macro-control Obviously, on the other hand is also due to strong growth in domestic demand, China's economy remains relatively strong growth momentum.
Guotai Junan Securities, Jiang Chao, the first half of the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of better than expected, coupled with the name of investment to maintain high growth rate, which indicates that a sharp drop in GDP this year is unlikely that economic growth will continue .
The stock market is expected to future economic responses to the steady and rapid economic growth will be the trend of the stock market decide the most basic factors. China Merchants Securities, Xuehua believes that the current economic growth rate is higher in the last year on the basis of the same period last year economic growth rate was 12.2%. From this we can see that the current economic growth rate is still higher.
For the third quarter, the stock market optimism
Remove to maintain economic growth, consumer price level there is expected in the fall. National Bureau of Statistics chief economist Yao Jingyuan said that in May and June CPI up or whether the ring had declined. Before the year is expected to show a trend of high to low. This shows that the macroeconomic regulation and control excessive rise in the price suppression achieved remarkable results. CPI in the second half will continue to fall.
Jiang Chao, June CPI down in line with market expectations, its positive role may have been ahead of digestion, and in the context of sustained economic growth, inflation pressures remain significant.
Deserves attention is that the June factory price of industrial products (PPI) rose 8.8 percent, or higher than the same period last year 4.8 percentage points, PPI and CPI movements are still differences between the continuation of the situation. Analysts point out that in this trend, profits will be further transferred to the upstream sector, which is in the upstream sector of the listed companies is good, but the downstream businesses will be subject to a certain degree of impact.
In the short term, the trend of decisions in the stock market a variety of factors, may arise with the temporary departure from the macroeconomic. But in the long term, the stock market and real economic trend will remain consistent. Entities economic growth, reflected in the stock market, investors will be to increase the wealth of the results. In other words, the long-term perspective, if the fast economic growth, the stock market Jiuwang up.
After the early sharp fall in the macroeconomic fundamentals remain unchanged against the background of the investors for the future of the stock market is also expected to change. Global Financial Services Group (ING) recently issued a survey report shows that Chinese investors the second quarter, the overall sentiment index fell, but remain optimistic about the third quarter, the stock market. According to the survey, 66 percent of the investors in the third quarter, are optimistic about the economy, 62 percent of investors expect the third quarter rate of return on investment will be increased.
The survey also showed that the impact of price increases, 79 percent of the respondents intend to re-configure the current investment portfolio and (or) to increase investment to cope with inflation. In that portfolio will be re-configured and (or) to increase investment to cope with inflation of the respondents, 42 percent of the people are considering investment in gold, 40 percent of people are considering investing in stocks.
Analysts point out that, although the first half of the Chinese economy has maintained steady and rapid development, but it should be noted that the world economic slowdown on the negative impact of China's economy is gradually appear. The judgement of the short-term trend of the stock market itself, in addition to fundamentals, but also needs to integrate the many complex factors.
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