Hong Kong stocks for the third consecutive trading day down. Hong Kong stocks Monday there was no trend of too many surprises, to close, the Hang Seng Index fell 53.5 points, or 0.24 percent, to close at 22687.21 points, after index was up 121.32 points; State-owned Enterprises Index was down 21.82 points, or 0.18 percent, to close at 12399.85 points. As this week when the futures settlement, together with the United States will announce a number of economic data, market activity is very thin, only a day turnover of 41.473 billion Hong Kong dollars a year on April 3 (40.012 billion Hong Kong dollars) since the 15 On the lowest.
HSBC Holdings led by financial stocks
The market for HSBC Holdings (00005, HK) medium-term performance of the pessimistic expectations really become an excuse to attack bears.
JP Morgan Chase recently reported that HSBC Holdings forecast first half pre-tax profit will be 27.5 percent in setback to 10.3 billion U.S. dollars, is mainly involved in credit costs rose and operating income growth slowed down. Earlier, CLSA research report has forecast, HSBC Holdings first-half net profit will be reduced by 16.75 percent to 9.07 billion U.S. dollars, of which 11 billion U.S. dollars calculated the provision for write-down and 40 billion dollars in capital gains. Will be released next Monday mid-day performance of HSBC Holdings fell 0.39 percent, to close at 127.80 Hong Kong dollar, leading decliners in the Hong Kong Monetary plate. Bank of East Asia (00023, HK) or 1.06 percent, to 37.45 Hong Kong dollar; Standard Chartered Bank (02888, HK) or 0.34 percent, to 238 Hong Kong dollar.
Hong Kong property stocks also no good look. Merrill Lynch said yesterday that Hong Kong real estate companies in the next two fiscal years, announced the results may be below expectations because investors overestimated the profitability of these companies. However, the bank is expected, Sino Land (00083, HK), Hang Lung Properties (00101, HK) and Henderson real estate (00012, HK) is the three most vulnerable to the impact of performance information on stocks, but it may also create a Good buying opportunity. Three stocks, only Henderson real estate fell, and the remaining two companies rose to close at 16.20 Hong Kong dollar, respectively, 25.70 and 48.55 Hong Kong dollar Hong Kong dollar.
Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016, HK) once again become a focus of news. Be removed from office the former Chairman Guo Bing Xiang in an interview that Sun Hung Kai Properties should take measures to reduce the influence of the controlling family.
Chinese coal shares rose contrarian
Chinese stocks, the decline last week by Yanzhou Coal shares (01171, HK) Notice of Yejiyuzeng contrarian rebound. Yanzhou Coal Mining rose 2.5 percent to 13.80 Hong Kong dollar, after the biggest gain 6.69 percent. The company said that the sharp rise in coal prices boost, the company expects first half net profit rose to more than two times. Another two shares of China Shenhua Coal (01088, HK) and coal in the energy (01898, HK) were up 0.7 percent and 0.3 percent, to 29.3 Hong Kong dollar and the Hong Kong dollar 14.
Chinese coal stocks rose despite the contrarian is largely a technical rebound after steep decline, but already at the Center Daily News of Hong Kong equities market sensitivity of the company's performance has been increasing, from the market in recent weeks Performance, regardless of the market in a strong rebound, finishing or weak, short-term performance of companies reporting good news always has a relatively good performance, but once the performance decline, the sharp decline in stock prices will be.
Peng strategist at Sun Hung Kai Securities, said the Hong Kong stock the current lack of direction, until the U.S. economic data released this week and after the futures settlement date, have a clear direction, it is estimated that the index will be repeated the next few days fluctuations that can still stand 22500 Above.
Source: Daily Economic News
2008-07-28
Bank of China took the strategic Chaodi HFM 30 percent stake in hedge funds
Bank of China in the global capital market remains volatile time, a few days ago already "cover of Chencang", through its acquisition of the British subsidiary of the Swiss hedge fund HeritageFundManagementSA Company (HFM) about 30% of the shares. Yesterday, reporters from the Bank of China spokesman Wang Zhaowen, and HFM current CEO, the company confirmed the news. Wang Zhaowen said the release of the matter in a few days later, it can not disclose details. Subsequently reporter contact the British branch of the Bank of China, but as of filing time has yet to acquire specific details about the news.
HFM management of six Super 300 million fund assets
It is understood, HFM is a focus on the Asian market investment fund companies, in 2006 by BanqueHeritage and senior managers JacquesMechelany co-founder. It is Geneva, a Swiss private bank - Heritage Bank, a subsidiary. HFM Mechaleny current holders of 70 percent stake in Bank of China (Great Britain) holds 30 percent. Under the agreement, the Bank of China will share holdings to 70 percent, he will retain 30 percent shares.
On the nature of the transaction, the Swiss Federal Banking Commission spokesman TobiasLux said that the deal will be regarded as a British company, rather than by Chinese companies. He said that the Bank of China currently does not hold a Swiss asset management companies more than 10 percent of the shares.
According to the Chinese Centre for hedge funds (ChinaHedge) website reported that, HFM manages six funds, assets of more than 300 million euros (about 400 million 71 million U.S. dollars). HFM's some funds in the first half of 2008 suffered a major loss, HFM's 788 Fund is a typical Chinese. The beginning of May this year the fund lost 48.8 percent, while in 2007 the fund rate of return of 114.8 percent. Japanese business fluctuations in small companies, 788 funds in Japan fell 15.6 percent this year, the 2007 rate of return of 16.5%.
The development of the strategic nature of Chaodi
Haitong Securities financial analyst Fankun Cheung that the acquisition of Bank of China is "Chaodi" move: "Comparison of recent financial market turmoil, the company's performance decline, the Bank of China may feel that the acquisition of a good time to, but I personally think that this is not a good time , When the loan-to-bottom that do not know anyone. "
In response, Southwest University of Finance and Economics Research Center of China's financial Pan I-that the so-called "Chaodi" can contain two meanings, one is a speculative purpose Chaodi, that is, buy low sell high and another is the development of strategic significance with the Chaodi, The Bank of China as a major commercial banks, the acquisition of more inclined to this, mainly hopes to introduce market-based risk management professionals, institutions, take control of the main market risk hedging instruments and derivatives.
Fankun Cheung also said the Bank of China will be the subject of acquisition value management experience and network and client resources and further improve their own wealth management in the management level.
At present the Bank of China 70.79 percent stake in the holding, its foreign shareholders include Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS). RBS, through its subsidiaries RBSChinaInvestments a 8.25 percent stake. Singapore Temasek sovereign wealth funds held 4.13 percent of shares, holders of 1.33% UBS shares.
China's Banking new attempt
Jiedao "hedge fund" investment, China's banking sector is still a precedent.
Hedge funds originated in the 1950s the United States, in general, the private investment institutions to make use of futures, options and other financial derivative products and the associated different stocks to buy air space sales, risk hedging skills to benefit from such an operation.
"Investment Bank through the hedge fund to investment, which is very common in foreign countries, such as Credit Suisse First Boston, their hedge funds are doing well," Pan seats, said, "as domestic banks, through the acquisition of the way This expansion of business in a certain sense is progress. "
Pan-I further analyzed that ordinary commercial banks in the market risk management level, a large number of financial instruments need to hedge risk and need to draw on the experience of hedge funds, or use a similar approach to risk management, and also need to introduce talented people, methods of mechanism. Bank of China through the acquisition of the shares will be entitled to the appropriate personnel and institutions.
News
Hedge funds in the end how much risk
Hedge funds in China was the view of the experts "great risk", "Shuitubufu", the development time is not right.
Speaking of hedge funds market risk, Pan-I explained that the strict sense, the hedge fund itself is set up to control the risk. It through basic tools, derivatives, futures, options, and other ways, different financial instruments structure of the interrelationship between each other hedge risk. "Hedge funds simply to hedge way to do investment, the risk will not be too great," Pan seats, said, "If the operator, and flexible management, risk hedging is basically, the net position, or risk their own little net exposure."
Pan-I pointed out that the reason why hedge funds in the West exposed high-risk, mainly in the hedge risks from its original meaning of this, a shift to speculative transactions. "Paris was done because of bank failure is a speculative transactions," said Pan Long seats.
For HFM in the Asian market this year by some of the loss, Pan I-Long pointed out that if the strict sense of hedge funds, in the face of such changes in the market, generally have corresponding basic strategy, a tool prices, must have Corresponding to the tool to allow prices to rise, in order to achieve a balance.
Source: Daily Economic News
HFM management of six Super 300 million fund assets
It is understood, HFM is a focus on the Asian market investment fund companies, in 2006 by BanqueHeritage and senior managers JacquesMechelany co-founder. It is Geneva, a Swiss private bank - Heritage Bank, a subsidiary. HFM Mechaleny current holders of 70 percent stake in Bank of China (Great Britain) holds 30 percent. Under the agreement, the Bank of China will share holdings to 70 percent, he will retain 30 percent shares.
On the nature of the transaction, the Swiss Federal Banking Commission spokesman TobiasLux said that the deal will be regarded as a British company, rather than by Chinese companies. He said that the Bank of China currently does not hold a Swiss asset management companies more than 10 percent of the shares.
According to the Chinese Centre for hedge funds (ChinaHedge) website reported that, HFM manages six funds, assets of more than 300 million euros (about 400 million 71 million U.S. dollars). HFM's some funds in the first half of 2008 suffered a major loss, HFM's 788 Fund is a typical Chinese. The beginning of May this year the fund lost 48.8 percent, while in 2007 the fund rate of return of 114.8 percent. Japanese business fluctuations in small companies, 788 funds in Japan fell 15.6 percent this year, the 2007 rate of return of 16.5%.
The development of the strategic nature of Chaodi
Haitong Securities financial analyst Fankun Cheung that the acquisition of Bank of China is "Chaodi" move: "Comparison of recent financial market turmoil, the company's performance decline, the Bank of China may feel that the acquisition of a good time to, but I personally think that this is not a good time , When the loan-to-bottom that do not know anyone. "
In response, Southwest University of Finance and Economics Research Center of China's financial Pan I-that the so-called "Chaodi" can contain two meanings, one is a speculative purpose Chaodi, that is, buy low sell high and another is the development of strategic significance with the Chaodi, The Bank of China as a major commercial banks, the acquisition of more inclined to this, mainly hopes to introduce market-based risk management professionals, institutions, take control of the main market risk hedging instruments and derivatives.
Fankun Cheung also said the Bank of China will be the subject of acquisition value management experience and network and client resources and further improve their own wealth management in the management level.
At present the Bank of China 70.79 percent stake in the holding, its foreign shareholders include Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS). RBS, through its subsidiaries RBSChinaInvestments a 8.25 percent stake. Singapore Temasek sovereign wealth funds held 4.13 percent of shares, holders of 1.33% UBS shares.
China's Banking new attempt
Jiedao "hedge fund" investment, China's banking sector is still a precedent.
Hedge funds originated in the 1950s the United States, in general, the private investment institutions to make use of futures, options and other financial derivative products and the associated different stocks to buy air space sales, risk hedging skills to benefit from such an operation.
"Investment Bank through the hedge fund to investment, which is very common in foreign countries, such as Credit Suisse First Boston, their hedge funds are doing well," Pan seats, said, "as domestic banks, through the acquisition of the way This expansion of business in a certain sense is progress. "
Pan-I further analyzed that ordinary commercial banks in the market risk management level, a large number of financial instruments need to hedge risk and need to draw on the experience of hedge funds, or use a similar approach to risk management, and also need to introduce talented people, methods of mechanism. Bank of China through the acquisition of the shares will be entitled to the appropriate personnel and institutions.
News
Hedge funds in the end how much risk
Hedge funds in China was the view of the experts "great risk", "Shuitubufu", the development time is not right.
Speaking of hedge funds market risk, Pan-I explained that the strict sense, the hedge fund itself is set up to control the risk. It through basic tools, derivatives, futures, options, and other ways, different financial instruments structure of the interrelationship between each other hedge risk. "Hedge funds simply to hedge way to do investment, the risk will not be too great," Pan seats, said, "If the operator, and flexible management, risk hedging is basically, the net position, or risk their own little net exposure."
Pan-I pointed out that the reason why hedge funds in the West exposed high-risk, mainly in the hedge risks from its original meaning of this, a shift to speculative transactions. "Paris was done because of bank failure is a speculative transactions," said Pan Long seats.
For HFM in the Asian market this year by some of the loss, Pan I-Long pointed out that if the strict sense of hedge funds, in the face of such changes in the market, generally have corresponding basic strategy, a tool prices, must have Corresponding to the tool to allow prices to rise, in order to achieve a balance.
Source: Daily Economic News
The White House said the U.S. government next fiscal year will be a record budget deficit
White House Office of Management and Budget report released on the 28th forecast, due to the economic downturn and the large number of tax rebates, the next fiscal year the U.S. government budget deficit will reach a record 482 billion U.S. dollars.
The White House has previously predicted that the year ended September 30 of this fiscal year the deficit will be 410 billion U.S. dollars, from October 1 this year, the beginning of the next fiscal year deficit of 407 billion U.S. dollars. But the White House released the same day the latest forecasts show that the next President of the United States entered the White House, will have to accept a record budget deficit.
Analysts believe that, taking into account the U.S. economy is still the danger of recession, the Government may have to continue to take tax rebate to stimulate the economy, the next fiscal year's budget deficit likely to rise.
For the record budget deficit, White House spokesman Pei Linuo the same day that this was the Government to promote economic development must pay a "price." In her view, because of the government's economic stimulus plan implemented, the U.S. economy is expected in the next few months out of its predicament, and by 2012 can still achieve the Government's fiscal surplus.
U.S. government budget deficit in fiscal year 2004 hit a record high of 413 billion U.S. dollars, while in 1998-2001 had a surplus for four consecutive years.
The White House has previously predicted that the year ended September 30 of this fiscal year the deficit will be 410 billion U.S. dollars, from October 1 this year, the beginning of the next fiscal year deficit of 407 billion U.S. dollars. But the White House released the same day the latest forecasts show that the next President of the United States entered the White House, will have to accept a record budget deficit.
Analysts believe that, taking into account the U.S. economy is still the danger of recession, the Government may have to continue to take tax rebate to stimulate the economy, the next fiscal year's budget deficit likely to rise.
For the record budget deficit, White House spokesman Pei Linuo the same day that this was the Government to promote economic development must pay a "price." In her view, because of the government's economic stimulus plan implemented, the U.S. economy is expected in the next few months out of its predicament, and by 2012 can still achieve the Government's fiscal surplus.
U.S. government budget deficit in fiscal year 2004 hit a record high of 413 billion U.S. dollars, while in 1998-2001 had a surplus for four consecutive years.
Bingdebuqing world headache
Of the United States
The world balance of power dynamics of the United States clearly negative trend, its strength and the ability to control the world都呈a downward trend and the plight of a hegemony.
First of all, as the overall national strength based on the successive years of economic decline, a recession edge. After the Cold War, especially the Clinton administration for eight years, the U.S. economy in the West to outshine others, for 10 consecutive years the average growth of 3 percent or more. U.S. GDP in 2000 accounted for 31% of the world, the position reached its peak stage. In recent years, with the support of high-tech new economy, in areas such as real estate and financial bubble burst, the loan-to-the spread of the crisis, the U.S. economy remains in the doldrums, in 2007 the economy grew only 2.28 percent this year, is expected to be reduced to around 1 percent. Its share of the world's GDP has dropped sharply in 2006 accounted for only 27 per cent of the world, this year will decrease to only about 25 percent of the world, the lowest since the end of the Cold War. In international trade and finance, and other important areas of the status and share also decreased trend. These make the U.S. contribution to world economic growth each year to reduce, or even landed in China in 2007 after the first time, second place. Its promotion of world economic growth as the main engine of the role of近尾声.
Second, U.S. foreign policy a serious setback, the international position and influence to historical low. It persists in the implementation of unilateral hegemony strategy by the international community and widespread opposition boycott. Fabricate an excuse for occupation of Iraq not only to international credibility and moral lost, making it difficult to extricate themselves bogged down in the quagmire so far in the international fight against terrorism, non-proliferation, establishment of the African Command and the promotion of democracy in the world in terms of its policy objectives frequently come to nothing; Allies on the baton fatigue, failure; opposition to the U.S. control of the wave swept through Latin America, the United States in the traditional "backyard", almost all from its allies have left the same one of the world's major powers in Russia's relations after the Cold War "The worst" period, the two sides in the eastward expansion of NATO, anti-defense plan, Kosovo, Iran and other major issues of acute confrontation, difficult to reconcile the contradictions. The brutal fact that the United States is now experienced 20 years of unprecedented "hegemony difficulties."
U.S. weakness, the overall decline in strength and influence is not accidental, nor a flash in the pan, but a structural an inevitable trend. World uneven development, U.S. forces dropped in at the same time, other forces in the growth: EU's total economic output in 2006 had already surpassed the United States, the world's largest economic center. BRIC to the four countries, represented by the emerging market economies developing rapidly, continued to narrow the gap with the United States. For example, China's GDP in 1980 and only the United States of 7.2 percent, to the United States in 2007 reached 25 percent this year, the United States could be close to 30 percent. At the same time, emerging economies over the past five years of contribution to world economic growth rate of close to 50 percent, far more than the United States and promote world economic growth as the main engine. Indeed, now it is too early to assert that decline of U.S. hegemony, the United States as the overall strength of the strongest superpower status will remain a longer period, but the United States compared with other power centres, "the United States to" eliminate his long trend is the "cover up Castle Peak Can not, after all, east to. "
U.S. hegemony is its own policy dilemma "Yingshang" caused. Contrary to the trend of the times it introduced the hegemony of diplomatic strategy, the international community to put itself in opposition, it too ambitious, long hand, the burden too heavy. Meanwhile, the U.S. domestic economic policies, there are also weaknesses. Its long-term high trade deficit, high fiscal deficits, high current account deficit of the "three-high" policy, it is now back straw rain, the more the weight back.
The U.S. economy is the establishment of dollars in bad financial hegemony on the world, to a great extent, depend on borrowing and issuing large number of U.S. dollars to run. It was issued in U.S. dollars as the center of the financial services sector output as early as the 1990s even more than the value of the manufacturing sector, a major component of the GDP of one of its foreign debt has reached a total of 9 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for GDP The 63 per cent. These shows that the U.S. economic base is weak, not long withstand the impact of the crisis.
Stir up the world pistachio
The world changes in the structure of power has expanded to world peace and development. At the same time, the international situation is volatile contingency factor in the unprecedented increase, ecological crisis, food crisis, the energy crisis, the financial crisis intertwined, especially in the developing countries pose a serious challenge. Hegemonic position of the United States dropped the world's more prominent role in the negative, to become the world triggered a lot of the main causes of the crisis.
Ecological crisis. Global warming caused by human exacerbate environmental degradation has reached crisis "critical point", the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has issued "the world is at a brink of disaster," a strong warning. The United States bears the greatest responsibility. It has long been a global greenhouse gas emissions than any other country, its population accounts for only 4 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions account for 25 percent of the world, per capita emissions, 20 tons, is a developing country in per capita emissions several times . Now it is the international community to ease the main obstacle to the greenhouse effect. It provides exclusive refused to emission reduction targets for developed countries the "Kyoto Protocol" and Guzhijixian a mistake in the end. This year has held 20 of the Fourth Ministerial Meeting of the Group of environmental issues, G8 Group summit on environmental issues on the agenda, because the United States from Zuogeng ended without results.
The food crisis. Many countries currently sweeping across the world food crisis is largely caused by the United States single-handedly. The United States have important indirect responsibility ─ ─ global warming caused by the drop in grain production increase; United States is also the world's food crisis are directly responsible for the outbreak. Developed countries consume a large amount of grain used for the production of bio-fuels, is for the international food shortages and the main reason for soaring grain prices, while the United States is the initiator and the first major. 2007, which will total grain output of 1 / 3 used to produce bio-fuel ethanol, the corn is only out of 81 million tons. It also flew compressed grain production, wheat production from 80 million tons by 2007 for the 70 million tons, artificial supply shortfall caused by wheat, lifting its market value. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar allowed the substantial depreciation, resulting in financial market turbulence, makes the US-based international capital a major push into the grain market vigorously engaged in speculative activities, pushed grain prices, exacerbated the crisis.
The energy crisis. The United States is the main international oil prices skyrocketing promoter. It implementation of monetary easing over the expansionary fiscal policy, has repeatedly lowered interest rates, the large number of dollars issued to allow the exchange rate has banished, makes dollar-denominated oil prices rose for the blowout, from a year ago soared to 65 dollars a barrel now More than 140 U.S. dollars per barrel. Since the depreciation of the dollar this year alone that is driven international oil prices rose 50 percent. Meanwhile, the U.S. Middle East policy, particularly the armed occupation of Iraq continue to pressure Iran and to strengthen the practice of the world's major oil-producing areas of the Middle East and the situation in the Gulf sustained tension, which has seriously affected its oil production. If Iran's oil output from the 1979's daily average of 6 million barrels down to the current 4.3 million barrels, Iraq from the 1999 daily average of 2.6 million barrels down to the present 1.9 million barrels. This is leading to the international oil supply and demand imbalances and soaring oil prices a major factor.
The financial crisis. The United States is the current world financial crisis of the source. The crisis the United States from the 2007 outbreak of the loan-to-the beginning of the crisis, with the loan-to-aggravated the crisis continues to deteriorate. The United States, loan-to-crisis affecting the entire Western financial system, the U.S. and Western financial institutions by nearly trillion-dollar losses, many banks serious losses or even bankruptcy. The United States also laissez-faire dollar depreciation, exacerbated by the turmoil in world financial markets. In response, Russian President Medvedev has recently pointed out sharply that "the United States in the world economy in the formal role of inconsistency with its actual capacity," the U.S. "aggressive financial policy" has created the present financial crisis, it may become the world in 1929 The Great Depression of the most serious crisis, "most of the world's population of the poor even more than before."
Fish in troubled waters
World-hee-hee, were to benefit; Rangrang the world, were to benefit. The United States despite its own difficulties, ignore the world's opposition to adhere to and to intensify the implementation of unilateral policies of hegemony, to the international community is to shift the difficulties and crises at the same time, the U.S. fish in troubled waters, maintain and consolidate its hegemony in the world.
On climate change issues, the U.S. government has repeatedly refused to shoulder its due responsibility for emissions reduction, to continue to pollute the environment at the cost to protect the continued economic expansion, is to strengthen and expand its strength and long-term-as the world's only super-status.
On the issue of food in the world as well. The United States is the superpower in the world of food, and the annual grain output of the world's exports were about 1 / 4 and 1 / 3, it is still 1 / 3 of the arable land in fallow, at any time based on the need to expand grain production and exports. It can be said that the world grain market ups and downs of an actual depends primarily on the United States. Many countries in the world because of food shortages and panic-stricken, the United States adding insult to injury, the use of other countries, especially in many developing countries rely on the depth of their grain to expand their political influence to impose political control.
It is clear that food has become the United States to maintain its world hegemony of the strategic means. The United States through the supply gap created to raise grain prices and market speculation, made a fiscal crisis. Although it will a lot of fuel used in the production of cereals, reduced the grain exports, but high prices Bujianfanzeng its export earnings. Such as the 2007 reduction in the export of cases, the increase in grain exports nearly 20 percent, its largest food company from the crisis in access to high profits.
In the financial sphere, the United States by the substantial depreciation of the dollar benefits. In recent years, the U.S. dollar against other currencies, an average of more than 20 per cent devaluation, huge foreign holdings of dollar bonds substantially diminished, alone, it can be reduced in each of several hundreds of billions of dollars of the debt burden. Depreciation of the dollar is also beneficial to U.S. exports, its export growth over the past year 13% growth rate for the most over the years. Skyrocketing oil prices also profit from the United States. International oil transactions are denominated in dollars, actually control their pricing power in the hands of the U.S. capital. Game of the international oil market, "Makers" is not any other country but the United States. U.S. capital in particular, the U.S. financial speculative capital, the U.S. major oil companies with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is skyrocketing oil prices, the biggest profit.
U.S. hegemonic policies to strengthen Yuyi from hegemony predicament is no different from Yinzhenzhike, the end can only harm the beginning of the end to others. The plight of hegemony that the United States bogged down in its reverse the trend of the times the wrong policy does not work, go very far, it can only help in time, but not in the long-term benefit. (Banyuetan China Institute of International Studies Yin Chengde)
The world balance of power dynamics of the United States clearly negative trend, its strength and the ability to control the world都呈a downward trend and the plight of a hegemony.
First of all, as the overall national strength based on the successive years of economic decline, a recession edge. After the Cold War, especially the Clinton administration for eight years, the U.S. economy in the West to outshine others, for 10 consecutive years the average growth of 3 percent or more. U.S. GDP in 2000 accounted for 31% of the world, the position reached its peak stage. In recent years, with the support of high-tech new economy, in areas such as real estate and financial bubble burst, the loan-to-the spread of the crisis, the U.S. economy remains in the doldrums, in 2007 the economy grew only 2.28 percent this year, is expected to be reduced to around 1 percent. Its share of the world's GDP has dropped sharply in 2006 accounted for only 27 per cent of the world, this year will decrease to only about 25 percent of the world, the lowest since the end of the Cold War. In international trade and finance, and other important areas of the status and share also decreased trend. These make the U.S. contribution to world economic growth each year to reduce, or even landed in China in 2007 after the first time, second place. Its promotion of world economic growth as the main engine of the role of近尾声.
Second, U.S. foreign policy a serious setback, the international position and influence to historical low. It persists in the implementation of unilateral hegemony strategy by the international community and widespread opposition boycott. Fabricate an excuse for occupation of Iraq not only to international credibility and moral lost, making it difficult to extricate themselves bogged down in the quagmire so far in the international fight against terrorism, non-proliferation, establishment of the African Command and the promotion of democracy in the world in terms of its policy objectives frequently come to nothing; Allies on the baton fatigue, failure; opposition to the U.S. control of the wave swept through Latin America, the United States in the traditional "backyard", almost all from its allies have left the same one of the world's major powers in Russia's relations after the Cold War "The worst" period, the two sides in the eastward expansion of NATO, anti-defense plan, Kosovo, Iran and other major issues of acute confrontation, difficult to reconcile the contradictions. The brutal fact that the United States is now experienced 20 years of unprecedented "hegemony difficulties."
U.S. weakness, the overall decline in strength and influence is not accidental, nor a flash in the pan, but a structural an inevitable trend. World uneven development, U.S. forces dropped in at the same time, other forces in the growth: EU's total economic output in 2006 had already surpassed the United States, the world's largest economic center. BRIC to the four countries, represented by the emerging market economies developing rapidly, continued to narrow the gap with the United States. For example, China's GDP in 1980 and only the United States of 7.2 percent, to the United States in 2007 reached 25 percent this year, the United States could be close to 30 percent. At the same time, emerging economies over the past five years of contribution to world economic growth rate of close to 50 percent, far more than the United States and promote world economic growth as the main engine. Indeed, now it is too early to assert that decline of U.S. hegemony, the United States as the overall strength of the strongest superpower status will remain a longer period, but the United States compared with other power centres, "the United States to" eliminate his long trend is the "cover up Castle Peak Can not, after all, east to. "
U.S. hegemony is its own policy dilemma "Yingshang" caused. Contrary to the trend of the times it introduced the hegemony of diplomatic strategy, the international community to put itself in opposition, it too ambitious, long hand, the burden too heavy. Meanwhile, the U.S. domestic economic policies, there are also weaknesses. Its long-term high trade deficit, high fiscal deficits, high current account deficit of the "three-high" policy, it is now back straw rain, the more the weight back.
The U.S. economy is the establishment of dollars in bad financial hegemony on the world, to a great extent, depend on borrowing and issuing large number of U.S. dollars to run. It was issued in U.S. dollars as the center of the financial services sector output as early as the 1990s even more than the value of the manufacturing sector, a major component of the GDP of one of its foreign debt has reached a total of 9 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for GDP The 63 per cent. These shows that the U.S. economic base is weak, not long withstand the impact of the crisis.
Stir up the world pistachio
The world changes in the structure of power has expanded to world peace and development. At the same time, the international situation is volatile contingency factor in the unprecedented increase, ecological crisis, food crisis, the energy crisis, the financial crisis intertwined, especially in the developing countries pose a serious challenge. Hegemonic position of the United States dropped the world's more prominent role in the negative, to become the world triggered a lot of the main causes of the crisis.
Ecological crisis. Global warming caused by human exacerbate environmental degradation has reached crisis "critical point", the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has issued "the world is at a brink of disaster," a strong warning. The United States bears the greatest responsibility. It has long been a global greenhouse gas emissions than any other country, its population accounts for only 4 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions account for 25 percent of the world, per capita emissions, 20 tons, is a developing country in per capita emissions several times . Now it is the international community to ease the main obstacle to the greenhouse effect. It provides exclusive refused to emission reduction targets for developed countries the "Kyoto Protocol" and Guzhijixian a mistake in the end. This year has held 20 of the Fourth Ministerial Meeting of the Group of environmental issues, G8 Group summit on environmental issues on the agenda, because the United States from Zuogeng ended without results.
The food crisis. Many countries currently sweeping across the world food crisis is largely caused by the United States single-handedly. The United States have important indirect responsibility ─ ─ global warming caused by the drop in grain production increase; United States is also the world's food crisis are directly responsible for the outbreak. Developed countries consume a large amount of grain used for the production of bio-fuels, is for the international food shortages and the main reason for soaring grain prices, while the United States is the initiator and the first major. 2007, which will total grain output of 1 / 3 used to produce bio-fuel ethanol, the corn is only out of 81 million tons. It also flew compressed grain production, wheat production from 80 million tons by 2007 for the 70 million tons, artificial supply shortfall caused by wheat, lifting its market value. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar allowed the substantial depreciation, resulting in financial market turbulence, makes the US-based international capital a major push into the grain market vigorously engaged in speculative activities, pushed grain prices, exacerbated the crisis.
The energy crisis. The United States is the main international oil prices skyrocketing promoter. It implementation of monetary easing over the expansionary fiscal policy, has repeatedly lowered interest rates, the large number of dollars issued to allow the exchange rate has banished, makes dollar-denominated oil prices rose for the blowout, from a year ago soared to 65 dollars a barrel now More than 140 U.S. dollars per barrel. Since the depreciation of the dollar this year alone that is driven international oil prices rose 50 percent. Meanwhile, the U.S. Middle East policy, particularly the armed occupation of Iraq continue to pressure Iran and to strengthen the practice of the world's major oil-producing areas of the Middle East and the situation in the Gulf sustained tension, which has seriously affected its oil production. If Iran's oil output from the 1979's daily average of 6 million barrels down to the current 4.3 million barrels, Iraq from the 1999 daily average of 2.6 million barrels down to the present 1.9 million barrels. This is leading to the international oil supply and demand imbalances and soaring oil prices a major factor.
The financial crisis. The United States is the current world financial crisis of the source. The crisis the United States from the 2007 outbreak of the loan-to-the beginning of the crisis, with the loan-to-aggravated the crisis continues to deteriorate. The United States, loan-to-crisis affecting the entire Western financial system, the U.S. and Western financial institutions by nearly trillion-dollar losses, many banks serious losses or even bankruptcy. The United States also laissez-faire dollar depreciation, exacerbated by the turmoil in world financial markets. In response, Russian President Medvedev has recently pointed out sharply that "the United States in the world economy in the formal role of inconsistency with its actual capacity," the U.S. "aggressive financial policy" has created the present financial crisis, it may become the world in 1929 The Great Depression of the most serious crisis, "most of the world's population of the poor even more than before."
Fish in troubled waters
World-hee-hee, were to benefit; Rangrang the world, were to benefit. The United States despite its own difficulties, ignore the world's opposition to adhere to and to intensify the implementation of unilateral policies of hegemony, to the international community is to shift the difficulties and crises at the same time, the U.S. fish in troubled waters, maintain and consolidate its hegemony in the world.
On climate change issues, the U.S. government has repeatedly refused to shoulder its due responsibility for emissions reduction, to continue to pollute the environment at the cost to protect the continued economic expansion, is to strengthen and expand its strength and long-term-as the world's only super-status.
On the issue of food in the world as well. The United States is the superpower in the world of food, and the annual grain output of the world's exports were about 1 / 4 and 1 / 3, it is still 1 / 3 of the arable land in fallow, at any time based on the need to expand grain production and exports. It can be said that the world grain market ups and downs of an actual depends primarily on the United States. Many countries in the world because of food shortages and panic-stricken, the United States adding insult to injury, the use of other countries, especially in many developing countries rely on the depth of their grain to expand their political influence to impose political control.
It is clear that food has become the United States to maintain its world hegemony of the strategic means. The United States through the supply gap created to raise grain prices and market speculation, made a fiscal crisis. Although it will a lot of fuel used in the production of cereals, reduced the grain exports, but high prices Bujianfanzeng its export earnings. Such as the 2007 reduction in the export of cases, the increase in grain exports nearly 20 percent, its largest food company from the crisis in access to high profits.
In the financial sphere, the United States by the substantial depreciation of the dollar benefits. In recent years, the U.S. dollar against other currencies, an average of more than 20 per cent devaluation, huge foreign holdings of dollar bonds substantially diminished, alone, it can be reduced in each of several hundreds of billions of dollars of the debt burden. Depreciation of the dollar is also beneficial to U.S. exports, its export growth over the past year 13% growth rate for the most over the years. Skyrocketing oil prices also profit from the United States. International oil transactions are denominated in dollars, actually control their pricing power in the hands of the U.S. capital. Game of the international oil market, "Makers" is not any other country but the United States. U.S. capital in particular, the U.S. financial speculative capital, the U.S. major oil companies with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is skyrocketing oil prices, the biggest profit.
U.S. hegemonic policies to strengthen Yuyi from hegemony predicament is no different from Yinzhenzhike, the end can only harm the beginning of the end to others. The plight of hegemony that the United States bogged down in its reverse the trend of the times the wrong policy does not work, go very far, it can only help in time, but not in the long-term benefit. (Banyuetan China Institute of International Studies Yin Chengde)
Gold prices inside and outside together strong fundamentals continue to support
Last week to undertake a strong rise in international gold momentum, the Shanghai yesterday all rose. Shanghai Futures Exchange main December gold contract closed at 212.22 yuan / gram. From the outside set, gold in the short-term or 950 U.S. dollars / oz about consolidation. The industry believes that the technical correction was a short-term needs, but the market atmosphere warmer, the third quarter of the Abundant trend will not change, gold is expected to challenge pre-high.
The domestic gold futures sharply higher yesterday, Tiaokong rate of 2 percent, one stroke broke the 209 to 212 yuan of the four integral juncture. Shanghai followed a day to maintain the high shocks, the major contracts stabilize in the top 212 yuan, to give great confidence in long, long afternoon buying increased noticeably. Shanghai to close at the end of 0812 was 212.22 yuan, rose last week to settle at 5 4.07 yuan / g, or 1.96 percent, hand positions by 1366.
Fundamentals to promote gold
Shanghai Gold up all its power from the US-gold in last Friday for 950 and 960 U.S. dollars breakthrough juncture. In this round of the gold rally, the market that there are two reasons: First, Iran test-fired missiles on the international gold market hedging demand triggered the second is Earlier reports said the U.S. government is considering to take over Fannie Mae and premises of the United States, the United States, Loan-to-recurrence of the haze crisis, gold as a "ultimate assets" will certainly sought after by investors. Fannie Mae on the premises and the United States experienced the crisis at the same time, the U.S. mortgage giant IndyMac Bank credit crunch because of state, such as multiple suppressing prices fell, on the 11th by the U.S. Office of Thrift Supervision to take over, this is also the second largest in U.S. history was closed Financial institutions. No doubt the news will have a stronger supporting gold.
"This week is the price indices for weeks, Europe and the United States and China's CPI would have been announced, which will also boost gold," gold-futures researcher at the way the rich and powerful that as oil prices soared earlier, the statistics on all fronts , This wave of price increase will be high, the gold like this is a big positive. "China's CPI up or lower, but Europe and the United States absolute value or more, so this data would be more effective stimulus."
Experts said that this round of the disc is expected to rise again to 1,000 U.S. dollars Mogao historical juncture, due to exchange rate reasons, or the disk will be smaller than the disk, but is expected into the 225 yuan / g above. Shanghai launched at the beginning of King Kong, in this juncture, a brief stay.
"In addition, Hong Kong will be launched in October this year, gold futures, the market will be formed with the previous period before the launch of a similar atmosphere." Rich and powerful way that the market has been uplifting atmosphere, the entire third quarter should be more oriented to look at .
Currently, gold investment demand is still strong. According to statistics, the world's largest publicly traded gold funds street Tracks of gold holdings have exceeded 700 tons mark, as at last Friday of the fund for 705.9 tons of gold. Last week, an increase of a total of 47 tons of gold holdings, as the biggest ever week of overweight.
Short-term or lower demand
The industry said that the recent price gains have been large, the risk of short-term pullback is being accumulated, set in gold in the 950 U.S. dollars / oz consolidation of the possibility of greater, so investors need to beware of this.
"The dollar index rebounded yesterday, the market for the U.S. government's initiatives to save the market has some positive reaction." Rich and powerful way that the previous gains due to fierce, so the United States-gold may be in the evening test of 950 U.S. dollars / ounce mark. "Judging from the current market performance, the gold holding 950 U.S. dollars, and the possibility of more consolidation."
There are market participants that because of the continuous Tiaokonggaokai yesterday's Shanghai, 210 yuan in straight Skip the important point, leaving a very large gap Tiaokong, may continue its upward pressure on a certain breakthrough, A short period of time ruled out the possibility of technical correction. "But the domestic gold Tiaokong gap reference value is not too much." Rich and powerful way that not too worried about the gap.
Experts said that the long-term view of the double bottom of the form can confirm that investors continue to remain the major trend upward. If there Huidang investors, investors should buy the dips strategy. At present the short term can be a single space.
The domestic gold futures sharply higher yesterday, Tiaokong rate of 2 percent, one stroke broke the 209 to 212 yuan of the four integral juncture. Shanghai followed a day to maintain the high shocks, the major contracts stabilize in the top 212 yuan, to give great confidence in long, long afternoon buying increased noticeably. Shanghai to close at the end of 0812 was 212.22 yuan, rose last week to settle at 5 4.07 yuan / g, or 1.96 percent, hand positions by 1366.
Fundamentals to promote gold
Shanghai Gold up all its power from the US-gold in last Friday for 950 and 960 U.S. dollars breakthrough juncture. In this round of the gold rally, the market that there are two reasons: First, Iran test-fired missiles on the international gold market hedging demand triggered the second is Earlier reports said the U.S. government is considering to take over Fannie Mae and premises of the United States, the United States, Loan-to-recurrence of the haze crisis, gold as a "ultimate assets" will certainly sought after by investors. Fannie Mae on the premises and the United States experienced the crisis at the same time, the U.S. mortgage giant IndyMac Bank credit crunch because of state, such as multiple suppressing prices fell, on the 11th by the U.S. Office of Thrift Supervision to take over, this is also the second largest in U.S. history was closed Financial institutions. No doubt the news will have a stronger supporting gold.
"This week is the price indices for weeks, Europe and the United States and China's CPI would have been announced, which will also boost gold," gold-futures researcher at the way the rich and powerful that as oil prices soared earlier, the statistics on all fronts , This wave of price increase will be high, the gold like this is a big positive. "China's CPI up or lower, but Europe and the United States absolute value or more, so this data would be more effective stimulus."
Experts said that this round of the disc is expected to rise again to 1,000 U.S. dollars Mogao historical juncture, due to exchange rate reasons, or the disk will be smaller than the disk, but is expected into the 225 yuan / g above. Shanghai launched at the beginning of King Kong, in this juncture, a brief stay.
"In addition, Hong Kong will be launched in October this year, gold futures, the market will be formed with the previous period before the launch of a similar atmosphere." Rich and powerful way that the market has been uplifting atmosphere, the entire third quarter should be more oriented to look at .
Currently, gold investment demand is still strong. According to statistics, the world's largest publicly traded gold funds street Tracks of gold holdings have exceeded 700 tons mark, as at last Friday of the fund for 705.9 tons of gold. Last week, an increase of a total of 47 tons of gold holdings, as the biggest ever week of overweight.
Short-term or lower demand
The industry said that the recent price gains have been large, the risk of short-term pullback is being accumulated, set in gold in the 950 U.S. dollars / oz consolidation of the possibility of greater, so investors need to beware of this.
"The dollar index rebounded yesterday, the market for the U.S. government's initiatives to save the market has some positive reaction." Rich and powerful way that the previous gains due to fierce, so the United States-gold may be in the evening test of 950 U.S. dollars / ounce mark. "Judging from the current market performance, the gold holding 950 U.S. dollars, and the possibility of more consolidation."
There are market participants that because of the continuous Tiaokonggaokai yesterday's Shanghai, 210 yuan in straight Skip the important point, leaving a very large gap Tiaokong, may continue its upward pressure on a certain breakthrough, A short period of time ruled out the possibility of technical correction. "But the domestic gold Tiaokong gap reference value is not too much." Rich and powerful way that not too worried about the gap.
Experts said that the long-term view of the double bottom of the form can confirm that investors continue to remain the major trend upward. If there Huidang investors, investors should buy the dips strategy. At present the short term can be a single space.
Industry: long-term bullish on the domestic price of gold below the international valuation of the company
Source: Yangcheng Evening News
At present gold prices remain high, the price of gold from the impact of factors, the growing problem of global inflationary pressures, high oil prices, U.S. economic prospects of the uncertainty, central banks in foreign exchange reserves in gold reserves in the proportion of Historical status (especially China), the gold mining costs rising, and so on the gold price factors have provided a strong support, and the only negative factor the price of gold potential rebound in U.S. dollars only possibility. Long-term bullish on gold, while the current domestic gold industry valuation lower than international counterparts.
At present the domestic gold industry listed companies have increased the reserves of gold resources for the next few years, Zijin Mining, Gold, Shandong Gold-gold reserves are likely to increase substantially. And affect the company's performance the most important factor is the company's production for the volume and cost control. In production for the increment in Shandong Gold and Gold in a more pronounced growth. In the Gold and Shandong Gold-performance this year will be significantly improved, has obvious advantages of the valuation, the proposed purchase. Zijin in previous years and because of their good performance, the company's operating flexibility, industry-leading technology and cost advantage, thickening the future the possibility of gold reserves, as a long-term investments held varieties. Chenzhou mining industry's performance also raised for the project pending the acquisition of Kuangquan progress and results.
Gold: the best varieties to resist inflation
By the world situation in the uncertain future, to curb terrorist activities, increase the risk of local conflicts; obvious signs of U.S. economic recession, the dollar continued to weaken; crude oil prices rising gold and other external factors that lead to preserve and increase the functions of the more apparent, as well as gold jewelry consumer demand increases , A limited supply of gold and other internal factors have led to the needs of tension, taking into account the adjustment of foreign exchange reserves of central banks to increase the possibility of gold reserves, gold prices in the medium to long term will show a rising trend. The international gold has broken through the 1980 set of 850 U.S. dollars / oz historical high, reaching 950 U.S. dollars / oz. However, inflation and other factors will be converted to gold, 1980 of 850 U.S. dollars / oz gold equivalent to the current 1,500 U.S. dollars / ounce, gold is still greater growth potential. Although the short-term dollar rally, the European Central Bank and the IMF to sell gold on gold movements to a certain extent, but the long term, gold can still maintain a high level. A conservative estimate 2008 average price of gold can be maintained at 200 yuan / g above.
The current price of gold, down from a high level. However, the factors affecting gold prices, the increasingly serious global inflationary pressures, high oil prices, U.S. economic prospects of the uncertainty, central banks in foreign exchange reserves in gold reserves in the proportion of the historical status (particularly China), the gold mining costs rising, and so on the gold price factors have provided a strong support, and the only negative factor the price of gold potential rebound in U.S. dollars only possibility.
At present the Federal Reserve on April 30 to the Federal Reserve funds rate will be reduced 25 BP, which is the Federal Reserve in September 2007 since the 7th cut the federal funds rate from 5.25 percent down to 2.0 percent. As CPI has been for five consecutive months above 4 percent, the United States has in fact entered the state of negative interest rates. Given the risks to inflation worries and low level of interest rates situation, the market expected the current round of Fed rate cut may be the last rate cut cycle. This also triggered a dollar a short-term rebound.
Currently the federal funds rate only 2.0%, from the absolute level of the already relatively low, and certainly room for a rate cut is limited. Delay in the monetary policy in effect, pre-cut substantially in the next period of time may have an effect, the Fed also need time to observe the effects of policy. In addition, energy and agricultural prices also rose sharply increased risk of inflation caused by the United States. Several from this point of view, the United States has relatively limited room for a rate cut, the Fed lowered interest rates will also became more cautious. However, from another perspective, the U.S. economy still in decline access, the real estate market continues to deteriorate, the U.S. economy to recover in the fourth quarter before.
From the United States the economic situation worse, because even if the dollar by the end of the cycle of interest rate rebounded, but their efforts will not be too great, and the United States is expected that the future will be at the bottom of the oscillation, the specific movements to further Western Europe, Japan and other countries The relative economic status than with the United States. It is expected that short-term rebound in the United States will not cause sharp price drop.
Domestic valuation below the international peer
The face of "Die Die endless," the A-share market, the central down to the valuation industry downturn, we have been thinking about a problem, in the bear market, the existence of a valuation of the border security »Of course, this issue could be from a macro-economic trends, National economic sectors, metal supply and demand status, the future price movements and so on in-depth analysis of the past, but most can only give qualitative judgement and the judgement of quantitative is difficult to estimate at the bottom of the still of no avail. The simplest method is feasible with the international market developed in line with international practice.
1, the international stock market experienced more than 100 years, experienced several rounds of Niuxiong conversion replacement for mature industries (such as steel, nonferrous metals, etc.) valuation relative stability of maturity, the bull market, bear market under the valuation is relatively reasonable, 2, the current inflationary pressure Is global, foreign and domestic inflationary pressures, relatively more severe, 3, non-ferrous metals, the basic price of globalization, countries in the valuation of the stock market are considered the world's macroeconomic development, metal supply and demand prospects, price fluctuations The impact of factors such as performance, 4 to economic growth in 1996, China is expected this year although the growth rate of GDP from last year's 11.9 percent drop to 10 percent, but still far higher than the developed countries 3 percent to 4 percent economic growth; , Non-ferrous metals industries in developed countries is being viewed as a sunset industry, the development of limited growth, while in China's nonferrous metals industry in the national economy still occupy an important position can not be replaced, but maintained a rapid growth momentum of 6, relative Kuang Caixuan mature gold in foreign countries, fewer and fewer of its resources, mine have dug about 2,000 meters underground to the level of domestic and mine are more than 1,000 meters underground in the depth, the depth of prospecting is still great potential to tap.
Therefore, the valuation of the domestic gold industry can secure borders and the international convergence of valuation, at least not lower than the international market. Judging from the current international and domestic gold industry valuation comparison, the domestic non-ferrous metal or even slightly higher than the valuation of the international valuation standards. Therefore, the current valuation level of non-ferrous metal industry has basically been at a reasonable interval. (Guangfa Securities Huang Yong)
At present gold prices remain high, the price of gold from the impact of factors, the growing problem of global inflationary pressures, high oil prices, U.S. economic prospects of the uncertainty, central banks in foreign exchange reserves in gold reserves in the proportion of Historical status (especially China), the gold mining costs rising, and so on the gold price factors have provided a strong support, and the only negative factor the price of gold potential rebound in U.S. dollars only possibility. Long-term bullish on gold, while the current domestic gold industry valuation lower than international counterparts.
At present the domestic gold industry listed companies have increased the reserves of gold resources for the next few years, Zijin Mining, Gold, Shandong Gold-gold reserves are likely to increase substantially. And affect the company's performance the most important factor is the company's production for the volume and cost control. In production for the increment in Shandong Gold and Gold in a more pronounced growth. In the Gold and Shandong Gold-performance this year will be significantly improved, has obvious advantages of the valuation, the proposed purchase. Zijin in previous years and because of their good performance, the company's operating flexibility, industry-leading technology and cost advantage, thickening the future the possibility of gold reserves, as a long-term investments held varieties. Chenzhou mining industry's performance also raised for the project pending the acquisition of Kuangquan progress and results.
Gold: the best varieties to resist inflation
By the world situation in the uncertain future, to curb terrorist activities, increase the risk of local conflicts; obvious signs of U.S. economic recession, the dollar continued to weaken; crude oil prices rising gold and other external factors that lead to preserve and increase the functions of the more apparent, as well as gold jewelry consumer demand increases , A limited supply of gold and other internal factors have led to the needs of tension, taking into account the adjustment of foreign exchange reserves of central banks to increase the possibility of gold reserves, gold prices in the medium to long term will show a rising trend. The international gold has broken through the 1980 set of 850 U.S. dollars / oz historical high, reaching 950 U.S. dollars / oz. However, inflation and other factors will be converted to gold, 1980 of 850 U.S. dollars / oz gold equivalent to the current 1,500 U.S. dollars / ounce, gold is still greater growth potential. Although the short-term dollar rally, the European Central Bank and the IMF to sell gold on gold movements to a certain extent, but the long term, gold can still maintain a high level. A conservative estimate 2008 average price of gold can be maintained at 200 yuan / g above.
The current price of gold, down from a high level. However, the factors affecting gold prices, the increasingly serious global inflationary pressures, high oil prices, U.S. economic prospects of the uncertainty, central banks in foreign exchange reserves in gold reserves in the proportion of the historical status (particularly China), the gold mining costs rising, and so on the gold price factors have provided a strong support, and the only negative factor the price of gold potential rebound in U.S. dollars only possibility.
At present the Federal Reserve on April 30 to the Federal Reserve funds rate will be reduced 25 BP, which is the Federal Reserve in September 2007 since the 7th cut the federal funds rate from 5.25 percent down to 2.0 percent. As CPI has been for five consecutive months above 4 percent, the United States has in fact entered the state of negative interest rates. Given the risks to inflation worries and low level of interest rates situation, the market expected the current round of Fed rate cut may be the last rate cut cycle. This also triggered a dollar a short-term rebound.
Currently the federal funds rate only 2.0%, from the absolute level of the already relatively low, and certainly room for a rate cut is limited. Delay in the monetary policy in effect, pre-cut substantially in the next period of time may have an effect, the Fed also need time to observe the effects of policy. In addition, energy and agricultural prices also rose sharply increased risk of inflation caused by the United States. Several from this point of view, the United States has relatively limited room for a rate cut, the Fed lowered interest rates will also became more cautious. However, from another perspective, the U.S. economy still in decline access, the real estate market continues to deteriorate, the U.S. economy to recover in the fourth quarter before.
From the United States the economic situation worse, because even if the dollar by the end of the cycle of interest rate rebounded, but their efforts will not be too great, and the United States is expected that the future will be at the bottom of the oscillation, the specific movements to further Western Europe, Japan and other countries The relative economic status than with the United States. It is expected that short-term rebound in the United States will not cause sharp price drop.
Domestic valuation below the international peer
The face of "Die Die endless," the A-share market, the central down to the valuation industry downturn, we have been thinking about a problem, in the bear market, the existence of a valuation of the border security »Of course, this issue could be from a macro-economic trends, National economic sectors, metal supply and demand status, the future price movements and so on in-depth analysis of the past, but most can only give qualitative judgement and the judgement of quantitative is difficult to estimate at the bottom of the still of no avail. The simplest method is feasible with the international market developed in line with international practice.
1, the international stock market experienced more than 100 years, experienced several rounds of Niuxiong conversion replacement for mature industries (such as steel, nonferrous metals, etc.) valuation relative stability of maturity, the bull market, bear market under the valuation is relatively reasonable, 2, the current inflationary pressure Is global, foreign and domestic inflationary pressures, relatively more severe, 3, non-ferrous metals, the basic price of globalization, countries in the valuation of the stock market are considered the world's macroeconomic development, metal supply and demand prospects, price fluctuations The impact of factors such as performance, 4 to economic growth in 1996, China is expected this year although the growth rate of GDP from last year's 11.9 percent drop to 10 percent, but still far higher than the developed countries 3 percent to 4 percent economic growth; , Non-ferrous metals industries in developed countries is being viewed as a sunset industry, the development of limited growth, while in China's nonferrous metals industry in the national economy still occupy an important position can not be replaced, but maintained a rapid growth momentum of 6, relative Kuang Caixuan mature gold in foreign countries, fewer and fewer of its resources, mine have dug about 2,000 meters underground to the level of domestic and mine are more than 1,000 meters underground in the depth, the depth of prospecting is still great potential to tap.
Therefore, the valuation of the domestic gold industry can secure borders and the international convergence of valuation, at least not lower than the international market. Judging from the current international and domestic gold industry valuation comparison, the domestic non-ferrous metal or even slightly higher than the valuation of the international valuation standards. Therefore, the current valuation level of non-ferrous metal industry has basically been at a reasonable interval. (Guangfa Securities Huang Yong)
Wall Street gold close to 1,000 U.S. dollars an ounce, a four-month high
Wall Street Monday gold closed up 13.10 U.S. dollars an ounce at 973.70 U.S. dollars, creating the highest close in four months. Gold price in the past month has increased nearly 100 U.S. dollars, or 11 percentage points. Analysts believe that even if the gold in the near future more than 1,000 U.S. dollars an ounce, from the 1980 inflation at the 2200 U.S. dollars an ounce, there is still great distance.
The New York Mercantile Exchange by the other precious metals prices also increased in September silver rose 43 cents to close at 19.25 U.S. dollars; September copper rose 1.2 cents to close at 3.752 U.S. dollars.
The New York Mercantile Exchange by the other precious metals prices also increased in September silver rose 43 cents to close at 19.25 U.S. dollars; September copper rose 1.2 cents to close at 3.752 U.S. dollars.
South Africa strike gold substantial influx of gold production is expected to further exploration 1,000 U.S. dollars
Source: China Securities News Author: Reuters have Yingqi
South Africa, the recent influx could strike gold production decreased significantly coincides with increased global demand for gold hedge against inflation, the international gold exploration is expected to further 1,000 U.S. dollars / oz.
Strike by production continued to drop
In response to the South African Trade Unions (COSATU) on protest food and energy prices soaring, with 320,000 members of the South Africa National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) will be on August 6 for a national strike.
Recently rising energy costs substantially increase the miners direct transport costs, rising interest rates led to the workers could not afford rent, and the high price of food is the millions of miners hovering at the edge of hunger, NUM hope that the strike by miners from the departments concerned to live the status quo Attention, and to take effective response measures. In addition, South Africa have taken place across the country more than the deaths of the miners were attacked, security is always NUM has not improved since the end of the 07 re-launched a national strike, one of the leading causes.
NUM also said it has organized against the world's fourth largest gold producer in South Africa Jintian companies (Gold Field) to strike, asked them to strengthen safety measures. First half of this year, Jin Tian has 23 workers dead, July 15 miners in the early morning have a kloof mine victims. The company has also planned in August cut-off day, the miners to reduce casualties. As Jintian South Africa's second-largest gold producer, the country's gold production will yield a certain extent. Jintian current gold production of about 70-75 kilograms (2471-2648 ounces).
On the other hand, Jintian Group as a joint venture in China the first gold mine Macao and China's largest shareholder, with China close to the mining industry. Although the strike was only South Africa, but production will reduce the whole group profits, in turn affect China's gold market and gold-related stocks. At the same time, the Japanese government in July to solve the problem of high oil prices of new measures against South Africa as well as high oil prices and high grain prices at the strike will convey enough information from Governments to jointly control oil prices also cause for concern.
South Africa Mining Board data show that by March 2008, the country's annual output of 254.7 tons of gold, second only to China. Because of security problems caused by strikes and the power restriction policy has been in the first half of the South African gold production fell 7.4 percent. July 9 to August 6 period, many mining areas will face shutdown caused by the strike because of the situation, resulting in the South African gold output decreased. Gold SPDR Trust Fund on July 11 holdings increased 7.2 percent to 705.9 tonnes, breaking the March 17 high of 663.8 tonnes of the record indicates that demand in the market experienced a four-month period of weakness has started to recover. This will result in gold supply and demand fundamentals on further tightening, the formation of positive factors supporting the gold price.
U.S. dollars and is still supporting oil prices
Medium term, the less likely the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year. Bernanke before and support the Government of the strong dollar's speech did not bring real effect, given the current strong economic fundamentals than the countries are raising interest rates to inflation, the dollar and the currencies of these countries will not narrow interest rate differentials. At the same time, the debt crisis erupted in 2001 after Fannie and premises of the U.S. crisis signifies the end of the global economic impact of the financial turmoil there is still a long way to go. Before the economic recovery in the United States, the dollar will remain weak, which will make the U.S. dollar is negatively related to access to support oil prices. Despite the recent price pullback row, including Japan, but apart from a few countries, OPEC and other countries are not taken to curb high oil prices, continued market speculation, is expected oil prices over a period of time will remain high, By means of high global oil prices pushed inflation in the short term will not come down.
Nearly 30 years of monthly fluctuations of the statistics show that in September and October are usually the best performance of gold. Mainly by the world's largest gold importer and consumer of religion in India and the wedding season before the onset of gold on the purchase of support activities. Vietnam's financial crisis, outside India as the most likely countries in similar circumstances, the people of India and may be purchased for the value of gold and other emerging countries consumers may also make the same move, so that gold consumption ahead of the peak season Arrival.
International gold in four consecutive trading day down after July 9 began to appear substantially Elevated and in the subsequent five trading days was up about 6.7 percent, while crude oil prices on the same trend for cross-sing. South Africa, the longer the duration of the strike, involving a wide range, maintaining and increasing global demand coincided with the rise of the occasion, or will drive gold once again shaken by thousands of U.S. dollars mark. At the same time, gold consumption in the coming season and the weak dollar, high inflation and the tense situation in the Middle East by factors such as strong support, is expected in 2008, the year a new record high, and in the longer period of time to maintain a bull market pattern.
South Africa, the recent influx could strike gold production decreased significantly coincides with increased global demand for gold hedge against inflation, the international gold exploration is expected to further 1,000 U.S. dollars / oz.
Strike by production continued to drop
In response to the South African Trade Unions (COSATU) on protest food and energy prices soaring, with 320,000 members of the South Africa National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) will be on August 6 for a national strike.
Recently rising energy costs substantially increase the miners direct transport costs, rising interest rates led to the workers could not afford rent, and the high price of food is the millions of miners hovering at the edge of hunger, NUM hope that the strike by miners from the departments concerned to live the status quo Attention, and to take effective response measures. In addition, South Africa have taken place across the country more than the deaths of the miners were attacked, security is always NUM has not improved since the end of the 07 re-launched a national strike, one of the leading causes.
NUM also said it has organized against the world's fourth largest gold producer in South Africa Jintian companies (Gold Field) to strike, asked them to strengthen safety measures. First half of this year, Jin Tian has 23 workers dead, July 15 miners in the early morning have a kloof mine victims. The company has also planned in August cut-off day, the miners to reduce casualties. As Jintian South Africa's second-largest gold producer, the country's gold production will yield a certain extent. Jintian current gold production of about 70-75 kilograms (2471-2648 ounces).
On the other hand, Jintian Group as a joint venture in China the first gold mine Macao and China's largest shareholder, with China close to the mining industry. Although the strike was only South Africa, but production will reduce the whole group profits, in turn affect China's gold market and gold-related stocks. At the same time, the Japanese government in July to solve the problem of high oil prices of new measures against South Africa as well as high oil prices and high grain prices at the strike will convey enough information from Governments to jointly control oil prices also cause for concern.
South Africa Mining Board data show that by March 2008, the country's annual output of 254.7 tons of gold, second only to China. Because of security problems caused by strikes and the power restriction policy has been in the first half of the South African gold production fell 7.4 percent. July 9 to August 6 period, many mining areas will face shutdown caused by the strike because of the situation, resulting in the South African gold output decreased. Gold SPDR Trust Fund on July 11 holdings increased 7.2 percent to 705.9 tonnes, breaking the March 17 high of 663.8 tonnes of the record indicates that demand in the market experienced a four-month period of weakness has started to recover. This will result in gold supply and demand fundamentals on further tightening, the formation of positive factors supporting the gold price.
U.S. dollars and is still supporting oil prices
Medium term, the less likely the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year. Bernanke before and support the Government of the strong dollar's speech did not bring real effect, given the current strong economic fundamentals than the countries are raising interest rates to inflation, the dollar and the currencies of these countries will not narrow interest rate differentials. At the same time, the debt crisis erupted in 2001 after Fannie and premises of the U.S. crisis signifies the end of the global economic impact of the financial turmoil there is still a long way to go. Before the economic recovery in the United States, the dollar will remain weak, which will make the U.S. dollar is negatively related to access to support oil prices. Despite the recent price pullback row, including Japan, but apart from a few countries, OPEC and other countries are not taken to curb high oil prices, continued market speculation, is expected oil prices over a period of time will remain high, By means of high global oil prices pushed inflation in the short term will not come down.
Nearly 30 years of monthly fluctuations of the statistics show that in September and October are usually the best performance of gold. Mainly by the world's largest gold importer and consumer of religion in India and the wedding season before the onset of gold on the purchase of support activities. Vietnam's financial crisis, outside India as the most likely countries in similar circumstances, the people of India and may be purchased for the value of gold and other emerging countries consumers may also make the same move, so that gold consumption ahead of the peak season Arrival.
International gold in four consecutive trading day down after July 9 began to appear substantially Elevated and in the subsequent five trading days was up about 6.7 percent, while crude oil prices on the same trend for cross-sing. South Africa, the longer the duration of the strike, involving a wide range, maintaining and increasing global demand coincided with the rise of the occasion, or will drive gold once again shaken by thousands of U.S. dollars mark. At the same time, gold consumption in the coming season and the weak dollar, high inflation and the tense situation in the Middle East by factors such as strong support, is expected in 2008, the year a new record high, and in the longer period of time to maintain a bull market pattern.
International gold short-term fundamentals are strong, frustrated the tendency to negative
Crude oil fell substantially by breaking 130 U.S. dollars the impact of information, the end of last week, the international price continues to drop, was lowered 949 U.S. dollars / oz location, after 954 U.S. dollars / oz a barrel.
Fundamentals have a tendency to negative
Market fundamentals have to short-term negative trend. The substantial decline in crude oil prices drag gold lower as the "chief culprit."
Crude significant drag diving gold last week for three consecutive trading day lower, from the disk of crude oil, oil prices are further signs of weakening, so there may be lowered gold lower position.
In another context, last Friday night announced the first U.S. bank Citibank's financial reporting better than expected, weakening the weak U.S. economy investors see the psychological, some hedge funds outflow from the city.
Short-term technical indicators also Piankong, on K-Line at Cross Yinxian, Zhou K line with long shadow at the Cross Yinxian, the breakthrough in the week when blocked at 5-day MA Shayuergui, MACD, KD lines are to air, Inflection point drop, short-term trend has been strong, frustrated.
At present, the international gold short-term support at 950 U.S. dollars / oz line, if effective below, it will trigger deep down 20 U.S. dollars, the next support level at 920 U.S. dollars.
Forecast for this week:
Tend to stabilize short-term narrow range of oscillation
After a sharp decline, the international gold to buy the super-pressure has been released, technical, 950 U.S. dollars / oz support at the relatively safe, short-term trend of more inclined to stabilize narrow range of oscillation. If no negative information blockbuster hit, the gold substantially below 930 U.S. dollars / oz location of the possibility of relatively small.
To be announced this week the economic fundamentals of data-intensive than last week, the city may have an impact on the only announced for Tuesday night's manufacturing index and Friday night's U.S. consumer confidence index is expected to reverse the fate of the city may And not much. Therefore, apart from investors concerned about economic data, also need to pay attention to the oil market and geo-political role, such as the sharp decline in gold, will also be subject to oil prices continue to plunge the impact.
Operation: Zhaojin Group Guangdong gold-trading center Chen believes that if the gold is expected to line lowered to 935 U.S. dollars, which is a good opportunity for investors Jiancang, from the Global Fund gold ETF in the position of the center line and more emotional to see the trend is still dominant , In the gold slowly into the season when bargain hunting buying is sensible investment ideas. If the golden opportunity to return to the first 930 to 935 U.S. dollars, investors can wait for opportunities to absorb.
Gold Club
950 U.S. dollars / oz support at the relatively safe, short-term trend of more inclined to stabilize narrow range of oscillation. In the absence of heavy bearish this week under the gold substantially below 930 U.S. dollars / oz location of the possibility of relatively small.
Fundamentals have a tendency to negative
Market fundamentals have to short-term negative trend. The substantial decline in crude oil prices drag gold lower as the "chief culprit."
Crude significant drag diving gold last week for three consecutive trading day lower, from the disk of crude oil, oil prices are further signs of weakening, so there may be lowered gold lower position.
In another context, last Friday night announced the first U.S. bank Citibank's financial reporting better than expected, weakening the weak U.S. economy investors see the psychological, some hedge funds outflow from the city.
Short-term technical indicators also Piankong, on K-Line at Cross Yinxian, Zhou K line with long shadow at the Cross Yinxian, the breakthrough in the week when blocked at 5-day MA Shayuergui, MACD, KD lines are to air, Inflection point drop, short-term trend has been strong, frustrated.
At present, the international gold short-term support at 950 U.S. dollars / oz line, if effective below, it will trigger deep down 20 U.S. dollars, the next support level at 920 U.S. dollars.
Forecast for this week:
Tend to stabilize short-term narrow range of oscillation
After a sharp decline, the international gold to buy the super-pressure has been released, technical, 950 U.S. dollars / oz support at the relatively safe, short-term trend of more inclined to stabilize narrow range of oscillation. If no negative information blockbuster hit, the gold substantially below 930 U.S. dollars / oz location of the possibility of relatively small.
To be announced this week the economic fundamentals of data-intensive than last week, the city may have an impact on the only announced for Tuesday night's manufacturing index and Friday night's U.S. consumer confidence index is expected to reverse the fate of the city may And not much. Therefore, apart from investors concerned about economic data, also need to pay attention to the oil market and geo-political role, such as the sharp decline in gold, will also be subject to oil prices continue to plunge the impact.
Operation: Zhaojin Group Guangdong gold-trading center Chen believes that if the gold is expected to line lowered to 935 U.S. dollars, which is a good opportunity for investors Jiancang, from the Global Fund gold ETF in the position of the center line and more emotional to see the trend is still dominant , In the gold slowly into the season when bargain hunting buying is sensible investment ideas. If the golden opportunity to return to the first 930 to 935 U.S. dollars, investors can wait for opportunities to absorb.
Gold Club
950 U.S. dollars / oz support at the relatively safe, short-term trend of more inclined to stabilize narrow range of oscillation. In the absence of heavy bearish this week under the gold substantially below 930 U.S. dollars / oz location of the possibility of relatively small.
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