Bingdebuqing world headache

Of the United States

The world balance of power dynamics of the United States clearly negative trend, its strength and the ability to control the world都呈a downward trend and the plight of a hegemony.

First of all, as the overall national strength based on the successive years of economic decline, a recession edge. After the Cold War, especially the Clinton administration for eight years, the U.S. economy in the West to outshine others, for 10 consecutive years the average growth of 3 percent or more. U.S. GDP in 2000 accounted for 31% of the world, the position reached its peak stage. In recent years, with the support of high-tech new economy, in areas such as real estate and financial bubble burst, the loan-to-the spread of the crisis, the U.S. economy remains in the doldrums, in 2007 the economy grew only 2.28 percent this year, is expected to be reduced to around 1 percent. Its share of the world's GDP has dropped sharply in 2006 accounted for only 27 per cent of the world, this year will decrease to only about 25 percent of the world, the lowest since the end of the Cold War. In international trade and finance, and other important areas of the status and share also decreased trend. These make the U.S. contribution to world economic growth each year to reduce, or even landed in China in 2007 after the first time, second place. Its promotion of world economic growth as the main engine of the role of近尾声.

Second, U.S. foreign policy a serious setback, the international position and influence to historical low. It persists in the implementation of unilateral hegemony strategy by the international community and widespread opposition boycott. Fabricate an excuse for occupation of Iraq not only to international credibility and moral lost, making it difficult to extricate themselves bogged down in the quagmire so far in the international fight against terrorism, non-proliferation, establishment of the African Command and the promotion of democracy in the world in terms of its policy objectives frequently come to nothing; Allies on the baton fatigue, failure; opposition to the U.S. control of the wave swept through Latin America, the United States in the traditional "backyard", almost all from its allies have left the same one of the world's major powers in Russia's relations after the Cold War "The worst" period, the two sides in the eastward expansion of NATO, anti-defense plan, Kosovo, Iran and other major issues of acute confrontation, difficult to reconcile the contradictions. The brutal fact that the United States is now experienced 20 years of unprecedented "hegemony difficulties."

U.S. weakness, the overall decline in strength and influence is not accidental, nor a flash in the pan, but a structural an inevitable trend. World uneven development, U.S. forces dropped in at the same time, other forces in the growth: EU's total economic output in 2006 had already surpassed the United States, the world's largest economic center. BRIC to the four countries, represented by the emerging market economies developing rapidly, continued to narrow the gap with the United States. For example, China's GDP in 1980 and only the United States of 7.2 percent, to the United States in 2007 reached 25 percent this year, the United States could be close to 30 percent. At the same time, emerging economies over the past five years of contribution to world economic growth rate of close to 50 percent, far more than the United States and promote world economic growth as the main engine. Indeed, now it is too early to assert that decline of U.S. hegemony, the United States as the overall strength of the strongest superpower status will remain a longer period, but the United States compared with other power centres, "the United States to" eliminate his long trend is the "cover up Castle Peak Can not, after all, east to. "

U.S. hegemony is its own policy dilemma "Yingshang" caused. Contrary to the trend of the times it introduced the hegemony of diplomatic strategy, the international community to put itself in opposition, it too ambitious, long hand, the burden too heavy. Meanwhile, the U.S. domestic economic policies, there are also weaknesses. Its long-term high trade deficit, high fiscal deficits, high current account deficit of the "three-high" policy, it is now back straw rain, the more the weight back.

The U.S. economy is the establishment of dollars in bad financial hegemony on the world, to a great extent, depend on borrowing and issuing large number of U.S. dollars to run. It was issued in U.S. dollars as the center of the financial services sector output as early as the 1990s even more than the value of the manufacturing sector, a major component of the GDP of one of its foreign debt has reached a total of 9 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for GDP The 63 per cent. These shows that the U.S. economic base is weak, not long withstand the impact of the crisis.

Stir up the world pistachio

The world changes in the structure of power has expanded to world peace and development. At the same time, the international situation is volatile contingency factor in the unprecedented increase, ecological crisis, food crisis, the energy crisis, the financial crisis intertwined, especially in the developing countries pose a serious challenge. Hegemonic position of the United States dropped the world's more prominent role in the negative, to become the world triggered a lot of the main causes of the crisis.

Ecological crisis. Global warming caused by human exacerbate environmental degradation has reached crisis "critical point", the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has issued "the world is at a brink of disaster," a strong warning. The United States bears the greatest responsibility. It has long been a global greenhouse gas emissions than any other country, its population accounts for only 4 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions account for 25 percent of the world, per capita emissions, 20 tons, is a developing country in per capita emissions several times . Now it is the international community to ease the main obstacle to the greenhouse effect. It provides exclusive refused to emission reduction targets for developed countries the "Kyoto Protocol" and Guzhijixian a mistake in the end. This year has held 20 of the Fourth Ministerial Meeting of the Group of environmental issues, G8 Group summit on environmental issues on the agenda, because the United States from Zuogeng ended without results.

The food crisis. Many countries currently sweeping across the world food crisis is largely caused by the United States single-handedly. The United States have important indirect responsibility ─ ─ global warming caused by the drop in grain production increase; United States is also the world's food crisis are directly responsible for the outbreak. Developed countries consume a large amount of grain used for the production of bio-fuels, is for the international food shortages and the main reason for soaring grain prices, while the United States is the initiator and the first major. 2007, which will total grain output of 1 / 3 used to produce bio-fuel ethanol, the corn is only out of 81 million tons. It also flew compressed grain production, wheat production from 80 million tons by 2007 for the 70 million tons, artificial supply shortfall caused by wheat, lifting its market value. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar allowed the substantial depreciation, resulting in financial market turbulence, makes the US-based international capital a major push into the grain market vigorously engaged in speculative activities, pushed grain prices, exacerbated the crisis.

The energy crisis. The United States is the main international oil prices skyrocketing promoter. It implementation of monetary easing over the expansionary fiscal policy, has repeatedly lowered interest rates, the large number of dollars issued to allow the exchange rate has banished, makes dollar-denominated oil prices rose for the blowout, from a year ago soared to 65 dollars a barrel now More than 140 U.S. dollars per barrel. Since the depreciation of the dollar this year alone that is driven international oil prices rose 50 percent. Meanwhile, the U.S. Middle East policy, particularly the armed occupation of Iraq continue to pressure Iran and to strengthen the practice of the world's major oil-producing areas of the Middle East and the situation in the Gulf sustained tension, which has seriously affected its oil production. If Iran's oil output from the 1979's daily average of 6 million barrels down to the current 4.3 million barrels, Iraq from the 1999 daily average of 2.6 million barrels down to the present 1.9 million barrels. This is leading to the international oil supply and demand imbalances and soaring oil prices a major factor.

The financial crisis. The United States is the current world financial crisis of the source. The crisis the United States from the 2007 outbreak of the loan-to-the beginning of the crisis, with the loan-to-aggravated the crisis continues to deteriorate. The United States, loan-to-crisis affecting the entire Western financial system, the U.S. and Western financial institutions by nearly trillion-dollar losses, many banks serious losses or even bankruptcy. The United States also laissez-faire dollar depreciation, exacerbated by the turmoil in world financial markets. In response, Russian President Medvedev has recently pointed out sharply that "the United States in the world economy in the formal role of inconsistency with its actual capacity," the U.S. "aggressive financial policy" has created the present financial crisis, it may become the world in 1929 The Great Depression of the most serious crisis, "most of the world's population of the poor even more than before."

Fish in troubled waters

World-hee-hee, were to benefit; Rangrang the world, were to benefit. The United States despite its own difficulties, ignore the world's opposition to adhere to and to intensify the implementation of unilateral policies of hegemony, to the international community is to shift the difficulties and crises at the same time, the U.S. fish in troubled waters, maintain and consolidate its hegemony in the world.

On climate change issues, the U.S. government has repeatedly refused to shoulder its due responsibility for emissions reduction, to continue to pollute the environment at the cost to protect the continued economic expansion, is to strengthen and expand its strength and long-term-as the world's only super-status.

On the issue of food in the world as well. The United States is the superpower in the world of food, and the annual grain output of the world's exports were about 1 / 4 and 1 / 3, it is still 1 / 3 of the arable land in fallow, at any time based on the need to expand grain production and exports. It can be said that the world grain market ups and downs of an actual depends primarily on the United States. Many countries in the world because of food shortages and panic-stricken, the United States adding insult to injury, the use of other countries, especially in many developing countries rely on the depth of their grain to expand their political influence to impose political control.

It is clear that food has become the United States to maintain its world hegemony of the strategic means. The United States through the supply gap created to raise grain prices and market speculation, made a fiscal crisis. Although it will a lot of fuel used in the production of cereals, reduced the grain exports, but high prices Bujianfanzeng its export earnings. Such as the 2007 reduction in the export of cases, the increase in grain exports nearly 20 percent, its largest food company from the crisis in access to high profits.

In the financial sphere, the United States by the substantial depreciation of the dollar benefits. In recent years, the U.S. dollar against other currencies, an average of more than 20 per cent devaluation, huge foreign holdings of dollar bonds substantially diminished, alone, it can be reduced in each of several hundreds of billions of dollars of the debt burden. Depreciation of the dollar is also beneficial to U.S. exports, its export growth over the past year 13% growth rate for the most over the years. Skyrocketing oil prices also profit from the United States. International oil transactions are denominated in dollars, actually control their pricing power in the hands of the U.S. capital. Game of the international oil market, "Makers" is not any other country but the United States. U.S. capital in particular, the U.S. financial speculative capital, the U.S. major oil companies with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is skyrocketing oil prices, the biggest profit.

U.S. hegemonic policies to strengthen Yuyi from hegemony predicament is no different from Yinzhenzhike, the end can only harm the beginning of the end to others. The plight of hegemony that the United States bogged down in its reverse the trend of the times the wrong policy does not work, go very far, it can only help in time, but not in the long-term benefit. (Banyuetan China Institute of International Studies Yin Chengde)