Britain's largest real estate site Rightmove18 released on the investigation report showed that house prices in England and Wales in August housing prices down 4.8 percent for the August 2002 start of the data compiled since the largest decline.
Britain in August the average housing price for each 229,800 pounds (about 426,900 U.S. dollars), on the ring fell 2.3 percent, since last December, the highest monthly decline.
The site commercial director Xie Pu Side Myers said that as the British economic growth slowed down and loan providers continue to tighten mortgage payment, the British property market cooling rapidly. At the same time, food and energy prices also made the British families unable to increase spending.
August, the average real estate agent hands of the British unsold housing up to 78 sets record, than the one set to increase in July.
Xie Pu Side is expected this year, the British housing a 1959 turnover will be the lowest level since the British Government and the Bank of England will again have to face the grim choice of a rate cut.
British finance minister said last week that the British Government is considering to inject vitality into the real estate market measures. To this end, the market forecast the British Government is expected to cut stamp duty on house purchase. However, Xie Pu Side that short-term cut stamp duty on house purchase can not fundamentally solve the security problem of shortage of funds in the market, if the Government has not formulated a clear strategy, when revenue returned to normal after the real estate market likely to face more serious problems.
2008-08-17
The world's top 10 leading fund manager's position
Graphic: Bidelinqi (Peter Lynch)
Bidelinqi is the United States and the world's most well-paid employment portfolio managers, is 1 million Magellan mutual fund, the founder of a distinguished career stock investors, the Wall Street stock market giant enrichment.
Bidelinqi in his decades of professional stock investment career, particularly in 1977 he took over and expanded Magellan Fund (Magellan Fund), the stock business has done extremely well, not only form the largest ever become Zhelun The Common Fund, Huan production from its 20 million U.S. dollars, an increase to 8.4 billion U.S. dollars, but the company's investment quota on the original list of only 40 stocks, increased to 1,400 kinds. Lynch also be harvested very abundance. Amazing achievements, Lynch Fei exclusive right to use the financial sector. America's most famous "Time" magazine called him the first fiscal management, and "happiness" magazine is renowned stock investment in the field of a super star. And in 1988 by Morningstar (Morningstars Co.) Selected as the best fund managers, and 13 universities nationwide were awarded honorary doctorate degree, announced his retirement in 1990, the total assets of the individuals allegedly 45 million U.S. dollars, the leisure I love playing golf, sailing and Tingge Ju. Bidelinqi engaged in the investment business, also recognized his extraordinary, and the self-proclaimed stock angel.
Bidelinqi and Yuehanluosi Chai (John Rothchild) in the name of the three best-selling book: "One Up on Wallstreet", "Beating the Street" and "Learn to Earn".
Graphic: Bidelinqi (Peter Lynch)
Bidelinqi is the United States and the world's most well-paid employment portfolio managers, is 1 million Magellan mutual fund, the founder of a distinguished career stock investors, the Wall Street stock market giant enrichment.
Bidelinqi in his decades of professional stock investment career, particularly in 1977 he took over and expanded Magellan Fund (Magellan Fund), the stock business has done extremely well, not only form the largest ever become Zhelun The Common Fund, Huan production from its 20 million U.S. dollars, an increase to 8.4 billion U.S. dollars, but the company's investment quota on the original list of only 40 stocks, increased to 1,400 kinds. Lynch also be harvested very abundance. Amazing achievements, Lynch Fei exclusive right to use the financial sector. America's most famous "Time" magazine called him the first fiscal management, and "happiness" magazine is renowned stock investment in the field of a super star. And in 1988 by Morningstar (Morningstars Co.) Selected as the best fund managers, and 13 universities nationwide were awarded honorary doctorate degree, announced his retirement in 1990, the total assets of the individuals allegedly 45 million U.S. dollars, the leisure I love playing golf, sailing and Tingge Ju. Bidelinqi engaged in the investment business, also recognized his extraordinary, and the self-proclaimed stock angel.
Bidelinqi and Yuehanluosi Chai (John Rothchild) in the name of the three best-selling book: "One Up on Wallstreet", "Beating the Street" and "Learn to Earn".
Graphic: Benjamin Graham (Benjamin Graham)
The stock market has traditionally been regarded as the elite gathering place, while Wall Street is a measure of a person of wisdom and courage decisive places.
Benjamin Graham as a generation master, his financial analysis of doctrine and ideology in the investment field had a very great shock, affecting almost three generations of major investors, the Wall Street now active in dozens of billions of investment managers are Graham's claim to be believers, he enjoyed the "Wall Street Godfather" reputation.
Benjamin Graham's name but did not stay in the Guangrong Bang on Wall Street - to his name Graham Muniu Man, in his retirement after the dissolution, and those of his historical position as financiers have Can often left to their own name companies. It also confirmed that from one side, Graham is the great individuals from the great, great this is the unsustainable. Fortunately, he taught through the classroom for their own theories left a successor.
Graham during his lifetime may not have thought that his reputation will be an even lower than their two Beifen of young people, that is Warren Buffett to memory. Today, even at Columbia University, many people do not remember the full name of Graham, they only remember that this person is, "Buffett's teacher." However, Buffett and his teachers is less like. Buffett's poor level of math, his teacher is proficient in mathematics; Buffett almost non-financial derivatives, his teacher is more like financial derivatives; Buffett good at analysis of cash flow, but like his teacher analysis Funds and property.
Graphic: John ‧ Templeton (John Templeton)
Sir Templeton is the founder of the Templeton Group, has been known as the world's most intellectual and one of the most respected investors. Capitalists Forbes magazine called him "the father of the global investment" and "history's most successful fund managers one." Although Templeton Jazz have retired and no longer participate in the Fund's investment decision-making, but his investment philosophy has become a Templeton fund group's investment team, and many investors are eternal wealth.
Handed down words
"Refused to technical analysis as a method of investment, you must be a fundamental investors in this market can be a real success."
"In the extreme pessimism that point in the investment."
"If you want to performance than most people are good, you have to and most of the action is different."
Graphic: George Soros (George Soros)
George Soros as the "financial genius", from 1969 to establish "Quantum Fund" So far, he has an incredible record of performance, to an annual average of 35 per cent of the integrated growth rate unmatched Wall Street counterparts. He seems to have a super-power around the world financial markets. His words can make a commodity or currency trading market mutation, as market prices rise or his remarks fell.
A television reporter that this was the image of Description: Soros to invest in gold, because he is investing in gold, so we all think we should invest gold, then gold prices; Soros writing articles questioning the value of DM , Then mark the greenback was down; Soros to invest in real estate in London, where real estate prices in overnight to reverse the decline. Soros is the secret of the success of many people are eager to know, but because of the Soros investment in a matter of their tight-lipped, even to him cast a mysterious color.
Graphic: John Neff (John Neff)
Finance experts who would choose fund managers to manage their money? » A good answer is: John Neff, the little-known in non-financial sector from Pennsylvania, fiscal experts. In the investment community is almost unknown outside, but because of his Life without striking a low profile. His behaviour totally unlike Wall Street's prominent figures, Daoxiang the central and western regions of the United States is an ordinary official.
From the city centre near a residential, a 30-year-old wife, and even some ordinary clutter of clothing is the husband's life did not luxurious office, the paper clutter Daoxiang student hostels. He never concerned about the newspaper, not to mention the gossip. Many other social sectors may be unknown to him, but he is indeed America's most prestigious financial figures, in fact, several polls showed that he is the fund managers to manage their own money the first choice manager.
Graphic: John Bogle
An ancient Arab leaders, in order to find his dream of mine, look over the ends of the earth, almost exhausted all the assets and eventually died of despair. Years after he left by the descendants of a ranch Liu Ma, inadvertently found a piece of dark stone, carefully read actually a diamond, and thus find a few acres of the diamond mines.
"All of these diamonds, in fact, the Arab leaders themselves back yard." Spearhead Group (Vanguard Group), founder and former CEO John Bogle stubbornly believe that fund managers look for the stock market hard, "Diamond", is precisely people Known by the market index.
1974, Bo Geer concluded that there can not beat the market index fund, launched with the benchmark index for investment in principle, the same year set up a pioneering index fund. Despite the early stage of development only more than 11 million dollars, but after several decades of development, Pioneer fund management assets has reached 884 billion U.S. dollars, half of assets from institutional investors, Vanguard Group has grown into the second-largest U.S. fund management companies.
Graphic: Michael ‧ Puli Si (Michael Price)
Michael Pu Lisi is the United States value the fund manager in the legend to the value of the investment, in particular favorite complex transactions, such as acquisition, merger, bankruptcy, liquidation, can be used to buy ultra-low-cost market was seriously underestimated the Assets of the Fund in its investment career, the participation of numerous merger, such as Sears (later renamed Xerox 100), Kodak, Macy's department store (Macy's) and Chase Manhattan Bank (Chase) and Hurray Bank ( Chemical) of the merger, and so on, are all well-known investment in the history of the event.
Michael Pu Lisi is a typical value investors, as long as he do that on the following three things, the value of investments can be successful:
Stock prices lower than the value of assets (A company selling at a discount from asset value)
The higher the holding company of the better (a management that owns share, The more, the better).
Clean balance sheet, liabilities, the less the better (A clean balance sheet, little debt so there is less financial risk)
Graphic: Julian ‧ Robertson (Julian Robertson)
By Julian Robertson ‧ management of the world's second-largest hedge fund Tiger Management Fund - the scale, second only to the international financial speculator George Soros famous by the founder of the Quantum Fund.
Aspect of the global financial markets to fund Tiger Management said the stock accurate. 1980, Robertson 8 million U.S. dollars to fund the creation of the tiger, 1998, the average annual return of 32% and thus be regarded as the godfather of the hedge fund industry-level figures. Robertson's investment strategy of "value investment" oriented, which is based on the profitability of listed companies made projections reasonable price, then buy dips approach, taking advantage of high-selling.
Graphic: Mark Mobius (Mark Mobius)
Mark Mobius on emerging market shares have 30 years of experience.
1997, 1998 for Reuters was chosen as "the best global fund managers."
1998, the United States in 1999 for Money magazine as "the world's top 10 investment master" one of the "Wall Street Journal" as "emerging markets Godfather."
1999 was the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development assigned to the board of directors and corporate governance of the global team responsible for the people. British research team was "the international wealth management," the magazine named the "2001 best emerging market equity research team." Mark Mobius Management of Templeton Emerging Markets Fund has outstanding long-standing investment performance.
The "profit passport - to overseas investment Zhifuzhidao" (Passport to Profits) (1999)
2008-08-16
The loan-to-sequels: The U.S. dollar villas and lose in the end sold 10,000
U.S. bank to sell the dollar "car are" Detroit a two-story residential, and promised to lose 10,000 U.S. dollars, only in the first 19 days to find a buyer.
U.S. "Detroit News" reported on the 13th, in view of the property market downturn and housing taxes and other expenses, the buyer of this small dollar investment may be difficult to return to this.
-- Detroit a two-tier residential prices only one dollar. Detroit is responsible for marketing the house of intermediaries Kente Ke Er Pate because it so cheap and shocked. He said: "I have never seen a dollar price of housing."
Housing facing huge tax arrears
two two-lying residential in the eastern city of Detroit, Michigan, the host of the 8111 Telafusi Street and Detroit a few blocks away from the airport.
Kaer E Puxiao local residents said, the November 2006 price of 65,000 U.S. dollars, best known as the entire housing block. But last summer the owner the right to redeem the loss of collateral, property confiscated by the lending banks.
After that, "those greedy thieves surrounded it," Epu Xiao said, "First, the external walls of the missing link plate, and then the fence disappeared. Then they forced open the door, take away all other Nengna things."
Bell because of the Employment Management Group sales by banks room. Group staff entered the house, found that the house was almost swept away valuable items and air, brass, stoves, Electric components, kitchen sinks and other equipment were stolen.
This did not publicly name the bank in January this year to 1,100 U.S. dollars sell it, no one Wenjin. Faced with the huge 4000 U.S. dollars of unpaid taxes and water charges, the banks forced to price (the topic) to one U.S. dollar.
room on the 12th at the Chang Kai 40. Kitchen and the basement for several door has not, before smashing windows, weeds around long to Qixiong, garage has recently been showing signs of a fire.
Keerpate said: "It's only a hollow shell."
The loan-to-crisis aftermath
U.S. real estate companies, Anthony Viola, "said one U.S. dollars property" is secondary mortgage crisis aftermath.
He explained that a crisis of the loan-to-the owner the right to redeem the loss of collateral, some Detroit suburbs a large number of unoccupied housing, the availability of these thieves frequently patronize. Housing lost brass, and other components, the potential buyers interested in not only declined, and difficult to apply to bank loans, resulting in a further decline in the price of such housing. The results, when the repayment ability of the lower house purchase loans, the bank now found that a large number of availability "rotten" in its own hands.
"These sub-issuing bank loans did not get much sympathy," Viola said, the real estate company in the U.S. headquarters in Cleveland, Ohio, and other cities, "the judges do not allow these banks sit back and regardless of property, or order their demolition, Maifang either. "
Because of this situation, banks eager to 8111 Telafusi Street residential sell. It Yaoya to give more concessions to the buyer, the buyer commitments for expenditures such as housing transactions, and lose a total of about 10,000 U.S. dollars, only to attract buyers.
"Detroit News" said that this incident shows how the Detroit property market into a "desperate" situation.
At present such "investment" more than one. U.S. National Association of Realtors Shoufang official website on the 14th, Detroit 4 for sale in the dollar-denominated, identified 30 U.S. dollars, 99 dollars, 100 U.S. dollars, such as ultra-low-cost housing is also the minority.
Buyer sentiment and profit
Keerpate refused to provide the specific identity of the buyer, only that buyers for a local woman, intends to use cash to pay the whole of one U.S. dollar.
He said that the purchase the woman as an investment, do not intend to stay.
However, this investment is still difficult to predict when will profit. Keerpate said to the woman as an example, though she only spent one dollar buying houses, but need to spend tens of thousands of dollars to purchase equipment within the housing, decoration but also good after the theft.
According to reports, even if the demolitions, she will spend 5,000 U.S. dollars. Not only that, in 2009 she would need to pay real estate taxes 3,900 U.S. dollars.
(This article Source: Guangzhou Daily)
U.S. "Detroit News" reported on the 13th, in view of the property market downturn and housing taxes and other expenses, the buyer of this small dollar investment may be difficult to return to this.
-- Detroit a two-tier residential prices only one dollar. Detroit is responsible for marketing the house of intermediaries Kente Ke Er Pate because it so cheap and shocked. He said: "I have never seen a dollar price of housing."
Housing facing huge tax arrears
two two-lying residential in the eastern city of Detroit, Michigan, the host of the 8111 Telafusi Street and Detroit a few blocks away from the airport.
Kaer E Puxiao local residents said, the November 2006 price of 65,000 U.S. dollars, best known as the entire housing block. But last summer the owner the right to redeem the loss of collateral, property confiscated by the lending banks.
After that, "those greedy thieves surrounded it," Epu Xiao said, "First, the external walls of the missing link plate, and then the fence disappeared. Then they forced open the door, take away all other Nengna things."
Bell because of the Employment Management Group sales by banks room. Group staff entered the house, found that the house was almost swept away valuable items and air, brass, stoves, Electric components, kitchen sinks and other equipment were stolen.
This did not publicly name the bank in January this year to 1,100 U.S. dollars sell it, no one Wenjin. Faced with the huge 4000 U.S. dollars of unpaid taxes and water charges, the banks forced to price (the topic) to one U.S. dollar.
room on the 12th at the Chang Kai 40. Kitchen and the basement for several door has not, before smashing windows, weeds around long to Qixiong, garage has recently been showing signs of a fire.
Keerpate said: "It's only a hollow shell."
The loan-to-crisis aftermath
U.S. real estate companies, Anthony Viola, "said one U.S. dollars property" is secondary mortgage crisis aftermath.
He explained that a crisis of the loan-to-the owner the right to redeem the loss of collateral, some Detroit suburbs a large number of unoccupied housing, the availability of these thieves frequently patronize. Housing lost brass, and other components, the potential buyers interested in not only declined, and difficult to apply to bank loans, resulting in a further decline in the price of such housing. The results, when the repayment ability of the lower house purchase loans, the bank now found that a large number of availability "rotten" in its own hands.
"These sub-issuing bank loans did not get much sympathy," Viola said, the real estate company in the U.S. headquarters in Cleveland, Ohio, and other cities, "the judges do not allow these banks sit back and regardless of property, or order their demolition, Maifang either. "
Because of this situation, banks eager to 8111 Telafusi Street residential sell. It Yaoya to give more concessions to the buyer, the buyer commitments for expenditures such as housing transactions, and lose a total of about 10,000 U.S. dollars, only to attract buyers.
"Detroit News" said that this incident shows how the Detroit property market into a "desperate" situation.
At present such "investment" more than one. U.S. National Association of Realtors Shoufang official website on the 14th, Detroit 4 for sale in the dollar-denominated, identified 30 U.S. dollars, 99 dollars, 100 U.S. dollars, such as ultra-low-cost housing is also the minority.
Buyer sentiment and profit
Keerpate refused to provide the specific identity of the buyer, only that buyers for a local woman, intends to use cash to pay the whole of one U.S. dollar.
He said that the purchase the woman as an investment, do not intend to stay.
However, this investment is still difficult to predict when will profit. Keerpate said to the woman as an example, though she only spent one dollar buying houses, but need to spend tens of thousands of dollars to purchase equipment within the housing, decoration but also good after the theft.
According to reports, even if the demolitions, she will spend 5,000 U.S. dollars. Not only that, in 2009 she would need to pay real estate taxes 3,900 U.S. dollars.
(This article Source: Guangzhou Daily)
New York oil price fell below 112 U.S. dollars per barrel
The dollar against the euro, sterling and other major currencies the impact of rising international oil prices continue to fall on the 15th, the New York market after oil prices fell below 112 U.S. dollars per barrel.
The report showed that due to economic weakness in the euro zone economy, the same day the dollar against the euro exchange rate, after once reached Australian 1.4659 U.S. dollars, since February 20 this year, the highest level. At the same time, many investors expected, due to economic recession, the Bank of England may be forced to raise interest rates, making sterling-dollar exchange rate fell for 11 days. Against the Japanese yen exchange rate has set a seven-month a new high.
With the stronger dollar, 15, the New York Mercantile Exchange, the September delivery of light sweet crude oil futures prices closed after the conflict with the minimum to 111.34 U.S. dollars a barrel from the previous trading day sharply down 3.67 U.S. dollars, the lowest since record more than three months Transaction price to the close of trading, down 1.24 U.S. dollars, at 113.77 U.S. dollars a barrel. London's International Petroleum Exchange, October Brent crude-oil futures fell 1.13 dollars to close at 112.55 U.S. dollars a barrel.
New Zealand by September delivery price per gallon gasoline futures fell 5.18 cents to settle at 2.8602 U.S. dollars. September delivery of heating oil futures price per gallon rose 2 cents to settle at 3.1191 U.S. dollars. September futures for delivery of natural gas per 1,000 cubic feet down 4.4 cents to 8.092 U.S. dollars.
Since the July 11 record of 147.27 U.S. dollars a barrel the highest since records of transactions, New York crude oil futures prices have dropped 24 percent total.
The report showed that due to economic weakness in the euro zone economy, the same day the dollar against the euro exchange rate, after once reached Australian 1.4659 U.S. dollars, since February 20 this year, the highest level. At the same time, many investors expected, due to economic recession, the Bank of England may be forced to raise interest rates, making sterling-dollar exchange rate fell for 11 days. Against the Japanese yen exchange rate has set a seven-month a new high.
With the stronger dollar, 15, the New York Mercantile Exchange, the September delivery of light sweet crude oil futures prices closed after the conflict with the minimum to 111.34 U.S. dollars a barrel from the previous trading day sharply down 3.67 U.S. dollars, the lowest since record more than three months Transaction price to the close of trading, down 1.24 U.S. dollars, at 113.77 U.S. dollars a barrel. London's International Petroleum Exchange, October Brent crude-oil futures fell 1.13 dollars to close at 112.55 U.S. dollars a barrel.
New Zealand by September delivery price per gallon gasoline futures fell 5.18 cents to settle at 2.8602 U.S. dollars. September delivery of heating oil futures price per gallon rose 2 cents to settle at 3.1191 U.S. dollars. September futures for delivery of natural gas per 1,000 cubic feet down 4.4 cents to 8.092 U.S. dollars.
Since the July 11 record of 147.27 U.S. dollars a barrel the highest since records of transactions, New York crude oil futures prices have dropped 24 percent total.
Global inflation exposed "globalization" of the bottleneck
Globalization in the past few decades, the world economy has been a huge bonus. In our minds have such a picture of the world economy: globalization has made countries around the world overcome the economic development of the domestic market and the lack of resources, and resources on a global scale the optimal configuration. But with the deepening of globalization, the bottleneck is gradually exposed. A large number of low-cost labor supply from the dividends of globalization are entering the end phase.
Morgan Stanley in June introduced the report shows that in 190 countries surveyed, 50 are experiencing high double-digit inflation, high inflation of the complexity of this situation is likely to mean the end of the golden age of globalization. Globalization is the first global inflation conduction become possible. Excess liquidity of the global economy, depreciation of the dollar and the international floating capital speculation, it is global inflation triggered this round of the root causes.
Now globalization is increasingly Let us feel the power of this a double-edged sword, the re-start the rise of trade protectionism, as represented by the WTO's global multilateral cooperation in trouble this globalization is also a reflection of difficulties. Long-term concern for world economic expert Jiang Yong even worried that the global economic situation has evolved on this, the tide of globalization does not rule out the possibility of being reversed.
June 23, 2008, Singapore's one Shuiguo Tan, fruit prices rising. Singapore has faced as much as 7.5 percent inflation.
The past: ignoring the "globalization" the negative impact of
Over the last few decades, globalization often means significantly lower commodity prices, regardless of the automobile, electronics, luxury goods, or banking services or communications costs. Along with personnel, capital and goods within the scope of the global flows, developed countries will profit, but also stimulate a broader market.
In fact, in 2003 to 2007, and the total world GDP growth of 5 percent per year, while inflation rate has remained at below 4 percent, more than any time in the past good. Historically, the early 21st century life with its more liberal trade and cheaper labor prices, more convenient means of communication, and more abundant capital created a beautiful and prosperous picture.
Such a beautiful picture for people to ignore the negative effects of globalization. Until recently, consumers, policy makers, even financiers, seems to have been overlooked this point. With globalization brought about by the unprecedented growth in the global context of labor, food and energy needs greatly enhanced. Now, in the wave of globalization began 35 years later, almost simultaneously throughout the world facing a severe test of inflation. The continuous development of global trade and the world capital market continues to expand, causing global economic prosperity, but it is the negative impact of the rapid worldwide expansion.
Everybody seems to feel that - because of inflation in recent months has Xirao the majority of countries - When people in the face of high gas stations and oil prices look sigh of Health, in a restaurant in front of the new-for - Menu racking their brains, or at home in front of Xuepian coming as the bill quietly curse when the wolf really came. On the vast number of developing countries in the world, hyperinflation means hunger, violence and political chaos. The complex situation of high inflation in the 30 before the Western world have arisen that could lead to the complete collapse of golden age of globalization.
Policy-makers have issued a warning. Just two weeks ago, the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet, the President announced that the deteriorating inflation has affected Europe's economic growth, he warned that the inflation spiral to the second round effects have been felt.
Faced with this situation, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to Congress the report pointed out that reducing inflation to an acceptable level of the current work is the top priority. Asian Development Bank in July's report urged policy-makers should no longer like the past few decades as concerned about growth, but should focus on controlling inflation and prevent the emergence of a worst case scenario - economic stagnation.
November 2007, Lithuania in the streets against the grain price rise.
Now: 50 countries of double-digit inflation
Morgan Stanley in June introduced the report showed that "in the 190 countries surveyed have been as high as 50 are experiencing double-digit inflation", including the vast majority of emerging markets. Statistics show that half of the current global population is experiencing high double-digit inflation.
Today's inflation almost entirely concentrated in the areas of daily necessities, this is the 1970s and the inflation of a fundamental difference. The past, for instance, in the United States, food and oil price inflation accounted for only about 30 percent of the total. Core inflation products - such products do not include food and oil - showing a spiral-shaped structure. Clearly, now the core product prices are relatively stable (at least in the richer countries so).
Morgan Stanley in June introduced the report shows that in 190 countries surveyed, 50 are experiencing high double-digit inflation, high inflation of the complexity of this situation is likely to mean the end of the golden age of globalization. Globalization is the first global inflation conduction become possible. Excess liquidity of the global economy, depreciation of the dollar and the international floating capital speculation, it is global inflation triggered this round of the root causes.
Now globalization is increasingly Let us feel the power of this a double-edged sword, the re-start the rise of trade protectionism, as represented by the WTO's global multilateral cooperation in trouble this globalization is also a reflection of difficulties. Long-term concern for world economic expert Jiang Yong even worried that the global economic situation has evolved on this, the tide of globalization does not rule out the possibility of being reversed.
June 23, 2008, Singapore's one Shuiguo Tan, fruit prices rising. Singapore has faced as much as 7.5 percent inflation.
The past: ignoring the "globalization" the negative impact of
Over the last few decades, globalization often means significantly lower commodity prices, regardless of the automobile, electronics, luxury goods, or banking services or communications costs. Along with personnel, capital and goods within the scope of the global flows, developed countries will profit, but also stimulate a broader market.
In fact, in 2003 to 2007, and the total world GDP growth of 5 percent per year, while inflation rate has remained at below 4 percent, more than any time in the past good. Historically, the early 21st century life with its more liberal trade and cheaper labor prices, more convenient means of communication, and more abundant capital created a beautiful and prosperous picture.
Such a beautiful picture for people to ignore the negative effects of globalization. Until recently, consumers, policy makers, even financiers, seems to have been overlooked this point. With globalization brought about by the unprecedented growth in the global context of labor, food and energy needs greatly enhanced. Now, in the wave of globalization began 35 years later, almost simultaneously throughout the world facing a severe test of inflation. The continuous development of global trade and the world capital market continues to expand, causing global economic prosperity, but it is the negative impact of the rapid worldwide expansion.
Everybody seems to feel that - because of inflation in recent months has Xirao the majority of countries - When people in the face of high gas stations and oil prices look sigh of Health, in a restaurant in front of the new-for - Menu racking their brains, or at home in front of Xuepian coming as the bill quietly curse when the wolf really came. On the vast number of developing countries in the world, hyperinflation means hunger, violence and political chaos. The complex situation of high inflation in the 30 before the Western world have arisen that could lead to the complete collapse of golden age of globalization.
Policy-makers have issued a warning. Just two weeks ago, the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet, the President announced that the deteriorating inflation has affected Europe's economic growth, he warned that the inflation spiral to the second round effects have been felt.
Faced with this situation, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to Congress the report pointed out that reducing inflation to an acceptable level of the current work is the top priority. Asian Development Bank in July's report urged policy-makers should no longer like the past few decades as concerned about growth, but should focus on controlling inflation and prevent the emergence of a worst case scenario - economic stagnation.
November 2007, Lithuania in the streets against the grain price rise.
Now: 50 countries of double-digit inflation
Morgan Stanley in June introduced the report showed that "in the 190 countries surveyed have been as high as 50 are experiencing double-digit inflation", including the vast majority of emerging markets. Statistics show that half of the current global population is experiencing high double-digit inflation.
Today's inflation almost entirely concentrated in the areas of daily necessities, this is the 1970s and the inflation of a fundamental difference. The past, for instance, in the United States, food and oil price inflation accounted for only about 30 percent of the total. Core inflation products - such products do not include food and oil - showing a spiral-shaped structure. Clearly, now the core product prices are relatively stable (at least in the richer countries so).
The German economy the first time in four years to drop
German Federal Statistical Office announced on the 14th of the data shows that Europe's largest economy Germany's second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter fell 0.5 percent, the first decline in four years.
However, this figure better than the 0.8 percent decline economists had forecast. On a seasonally adjusted basis, second-quarter economic growth than the 1.7 percent the same period last year.
Analysts believe that the German economy slowed down mainly due to high inflation, the euro strong global economic slowdown and the negative impact of the construction industry in Germany, the decline in investment and consumption also weighed on the economy. In addition, the first quarter of strong economic growth in the second quarter also increased the ring base.
The same day German Federal Bank published a report said that although Germany's economic decline, there was no reason to be pessimistic. German Federal Minister for Economic and Technical Michael Geluo Si also said that the German government in 2008 to 1.7 percent economic growth forecast unchanged.
However, this figure better than the 0.8 percent decline economists had forecast. On a seasonally adjusted basis, second-quarter economic growth than the 1.7 percent the same period last year.
Analysts believe that the German economy slowed down mainly due to high inflation, the euro strong global economic slowdown and the negative impact of the construction industry in Germany, the decline in investment and consumption also weighed on the economy. In addition, the first quarter of strong economic growth in the second quarter also increased the ring base.
The same day German Federal Bank published a report said that although Germany's economic decline, there was no reason to be pessimistic. German Federal Minister for Economic and Technical Michael Geluo Si also said that the German government in 2008 to 1.7 percent economic growth forecast unchanged.
2008-08-10
In the second quarter of the British manufacturing output fell
Britain on the 5th National Bureau of Statistics announced that the second quarter of this year the British manufacturing output fell 0.8 percent the first quarter. British economic growth is another sign of slowing down.
National Bureau of Statistics, the British manufacturing industry has declined for four consecutive months, it has the potential to lead Britain's second-quarter economic growth rate decreased 0.06 percentage points. According to the earlier forecast second-quarter British economic growth of 0.2%.
The second quarter, the British food, beverage and tobacco industry output value than the first quarter decreased 1.6 percent, water, electricity and gas sector output fell 1.9 percent, mining output increased 0.6 percent.
In addition, in July this year, the British services sector index for the 47.4, although a slight increase from the previous month, but still below the 50 demarcation point that service activities are still in contraction.
Analysts here said that while the United Kingdom in the manufacturing and service industries continue to decline, but the Bank of England rate cut unlikely, because the current inflation level much higher than the central bank's 2 percent target. Bank of England is expected this week will maintain 5 percent of the benchmark interest rate unchanged.
National Bureau of Statistics, the British manufacturing industry has declined for four consecutive months, it has the potential to lead Britain's second-quarter economic growth rate decreased 0.06 percentage points. According to the earlier forecast second-quarter British economic growth of 0.2%.
The second quarter, the British food, beverage and tobacco industry output value than the first quarter decreased 1.6 percent, water, electricity and gas sector output fell 1.9 percent, mining output increased 0.6 percent.
In addition, in July this year, the British services sector index for the 47.4, although a slight increase from the previous month, but still below the 50 demarcation point that service activities are still in contraction.
Analysts here said that while the United Kingdom in the manufacturing and service industries continue to decline, but the Bank of England rate cut unlikely, because the current inflation level much higher than the central bank's 2 percent target. Bank of England is expected this week will maintain 5 percent of the benchmark interest rate unchanged.
2008-08-05
Reported that the United States began to increase in transport costs have an impact on economic globalization
WASHINGTON - August 3, "The New York Times" published an article on the 3rd site that short-term cheap oil will be difficult to reproduce, transport costs have an impact on global logistics, which have begun to have an impact on economic globalization.
The article maintains that, oil prices from 10 years ago about 10 U.S. dollars per barrel rose to the current low of 125 U.S. dollars per barrel around, as a global transport lubricant oil is no longer cheap, so that the container transport cost far more than doubled.
Over the years, the economic globalization of production and marketing of various links to a global scale distribution and allocation of resources to achieve the best combination of production and marketing of the highest efficiency, and all this depends on relatively cheap cost of transportation.
"The New York Times," the article quoted the U.S. director of the Institute for International Economics Bogesiteng as saying that if oil prices remain high, then in different countries and between different production sectors will be a major reorganization of production. Moreover, he considered that the traditional pattern of consumption will also be shocks, economic growth will also be affected.
The article also an example, in the era of high oil prices as transportation costs increase in the past, some manufacturers used to produce the globalization of the supply chain has been broken, some manufacturers have been in business activities in more consideration of the localization or local operators to Minimize transportation costs.
However, the article also pointed out that many economists believe that even if oil prices keep rising, economic globalization will not be reversed. In addition, some economists and business people also believe that only the cost of international trade and investment activities of multinational corporations a determining factor, not to point all areas, over-exaggerate its impact.
The article maintains that, oil prices from 10 years ago about 10 U.S. dollars per barrel rose to the current low of 125 U.S. dollars per barrel around, as a global transport lubricant oil is no longer cheap, so that the container transport cost far more than doubled.
Over the years, the economic globalization of production and marketing of various links to a global scale distribution and allocation of resources to achieve the best combination of production and marketing of the highest efficiency, and all this depends on relatively cheap cost of transportation.
"The New York Times," the article quoted the U.S. director of the Institute for International Economics Bogesiteng as saying that if oil prices remain high, then in different countries and between different production sectors will be a major reorganization of production. Moreover, he considered that the traditional pattern of consumption will also be shocks, economic growth will also be affected.
The article also an example, in the era of high oil prices as transportation costs increase in the past, some manufacturers used to produce the globalization of the supply chain has been broken, some manufacturers have been in business activities in more consideration of the localization or local operators to Minimize transportation costs.
However, the article also pointed out that many economists believe that even if oil prices keep rising, economic globalization will not be reversed. In addition, some economists and business people also believe that only the cost of international trade and investment activities of multinational corporations a determining factor, not to point all areas, over-exaggerate its impact.
Unemployment rate hit a new high over the past four years, or the Fed will continue to keep rates unchanged
As enterprises continue to layoffs, the U.S. unemployment rate in July surged to four-year high, showing that the U.S. economy is still possible in the second half of this year into a recession.
But analysts pointed out that as the July employment data had worried about the decline not as bad, which means that even if the economic downturn, the rate may also be more moderate. The next Fed meeting will be held on August 5, expect the Fed's policy meeting on interest rates will remain unchanged.
High unemployment
The Labor Department announced last Friday, July non-farm payrolls fell 51,000, and in June the same rate of reduction, and spread to wider areas, including manufacturing, construction and service industries such as employment have decreased. May non-farm payrolls fell 47,000 people.
Another survey shows that the U.S. unemployment rate in July rose 0.2 percentage point to 5.7 percent for March 2004 the highest level since. The Labor Department said that in the past three months, the number of U.S. youth unemployment a significant increase over the age of 25 at the same time the number of unemployed also increased. July the average hourly wage increased 0.06 U.S. dollars to 18.06 U.S. dollars, an increase of 0.3 percent. July the average hourly wage over the same period rose only 3.4 percent. Analysts pointed out that this shows that the weakness in the labour market situation, very difficult to pay workers. Prior to the survey of Wall Street economists expect the U.S. July non-farm payrolls number will be reduced by 65,000 people, the unemployment rate was 5.6 percent.
The report showed that, in July the U.S. commodity production sector employment reduction in the number of 46,000 people, since October of last year the smallest decline.
In addition data also show that in July the U.S. service sector employment fell 15,000. Employment in the financial sector flat. Employment in the retail industry to reduce 16,500 people, the first eight months of consecutive decline. Employment growth mainly concentrated in the private service sector, which continues the recent trend, why is this area than the manufacturing sector and other areas of labour-intensive services a higher level.
Difficult choices to make interest rate increase
In addition, the same day the U.S. Institute for Supply Management data showed the U.S. manufacturing index in July from June's 50.2 percent to 50.0 percent, showed that U.S. manufacturing activity in July no signs of expansion or contraction. Wall Street economists had expected the index in July fell to 49.5 percent.
The latest employment data in July confirmed Wall Street's view that the Fed's next monetary policy meeting Tuesday on the federal funds target rate unchanged at 2%. From last September to April this year, in order to prevent the housing market downturn and the financial markets led to tension in a serious economic downturn, the Fed has accumulated federal funds target rate by 3.25 percentage points lower.
Analysts point out that Fed officials are pinning hopes on the economic slowdown brought about by controlling inflation can offset the effect of energy, food and commodity prices rising influence, which will keep inflation in the controllable range. Fed officials had said last month that they expected at the end of this year, the unemployment rate at 5.5 percent -5.7%. As of now, the U.S. economy seems to have escaped the severe decline in bad luck. Following the end of last year after a contraction in the economy, the United States in the first and second quarters of the GDP respectively over the same period last year increased by 0.9% and 1.9%. Energy prices, the housing market, the financial markets and the adverse employment situation also indicated that Fed officials may not be in 2009 before raising interest rates. (China Securities News)
But analysts pointed out that as the July employment data had worried about the decline not as bad, which means that even if the economic downturn, the rate may also be more moderate. The next Fed meeting will be held on August 5, expect the Fed's policy meeting on interest rates will remain unchanged.
High unemployment
The Labor Department announced last Friday, July non-farm payrolls fell 51,000, and in June the same rate of reduction, and spread to wider areas, including manufacturing, construction and service industries such as employment have decreased. May non-farm payrolls fell 47,000 people.
Another survey shows that the U.S. unemployment rate in July rose 0.2 percentage point to 5.7 percent for March 2004 the highest level since. The Labor Department said that in the past three months, the number of U.S. youth unemployment a significant increase over the age of 25 at the same time the number of unemployed also increased. July the average hourly wage increased 0.06 U.S. dollars to 18.06 U.S. dollars, an increase of 0.3 percent. July the average hourly wage over the same period rose only 3.4 percent. Analysts pointed out that this shows that the weakness in the labour market situation, very difficult to pay workers. Prior to the survey of Wall Street economists expect the U.S. July non-farm payrolls number will be reduced by 65,000 people, the unemployment rate was 5.6 percent.
The report showed that, in July the U.S. commodity production sector employment reduction in the number of 46,000 people, since October of last year the smallest decline.
In addition data also show that in July the U.S. service sector employment fell 15,000. Employment in the financial sector flat. Employment in the retail industry to reduce 16,500 people, the first eight months of consecutive decline. Employment growth mainly concentrated in the private service sector, which continues the recent trend, why is this area than the manufacturing sector and other areas of labour-intensive services a higher level.
Difficult choices to make interest rate increase
In addition, the same day the U.S. Institute for Supply Management data showed the U.S. manufacturing index in July from June's 50.2 percent to 50.0 percent, showed that U.S. manufacturing activity in July no signs of expansion or contraction. Wall Street economists had expected the index in July fell to 49.5 percent.
The latest employment data in July confirmed Wall Street's view that the Fed's next monetary policy meeting Tuesday on the federal funds target rate unchanged at 2%. From last September to April this year, in order to prevent the housing market downturn and the financial markets led to tension in a serious economic downturn, the Fed has accumulated federal funds target rate by 3.25 percentage points lower.
Analysts point out that Fed officials are pinning hopes on the economic slowdown brought about by controlling inflation can offset the effect of energy, food and commodity prices rising influence, which will keep inflation in the controllable range. Fed officials had said last month that they expected at the end of this year, the unemployment rate at 5.5 percent -5.7%. As of now, the U.S. economy seems to have escaped the severe decline in bad luck. Following the end of last year after a contraction in the economy, the United States in the first and second quarters of the GDP respectively over the same period last year increased by 0.9% and 1.9%. Energy prices, the housing market, the financial markets and the adverse employment situation also indicated that Fed officials may not be in 2009 before raising interest rates. (China Securities News)
2008-08-04
The United States led to skyrocketing prices in June fell consumer data
Monday the U.S. Commerce Department reported June consumer data reporting, the report showed that June consumer inflation data exclude the effect of the data fell 0.2 percent average consumer personal income rose 0.1 percent compared with May's 1.8 percent growth rate Much lower.
In addition, an earlier report of the Ministry of Commerce show that in June prices (mainly gasoline prices) jumped 0.8 percent overall, in February 1981 or the highest single month since. Excluding food and energy prices rose 0.3 percent other, since September last year, or the highest single month. After-tax personal income fell 1.9 percent compared with May or a 5.7 percent rise in poles apart from. Deposit rate fell to 2.5 percent.
8:00 am on the 4th consumption data will be released early trading the Dow down 63.02 points to 11263.30 points.
In addition, an earlier report of the Ministry of Commerce show that in June prices (mainly gasoline prices) jumped 0.8 percent overall, in February 1981 or the highest single month since. Excluding food and energy prices rose 0.3 percent other, since September last year, or the highest single month. After-tax personal income fell 1.9 percent compared with May or a 5.7 percent rise in poles apart from. Deposit rate fell to 2.5 percent.
8:00 am on the 4th consumption data will be released early trading the Dow down 63.02 points to 11263.30 points.
U.S. factory orders grew in June for the best performance of the past six months
Former U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan on the 4th published in the "Financial Times" wrote that in this global financial turmoil before the end, there will be more banks and financial institutions collapse. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on the 4th of the data shows that in June this year, U.S. factory orders grew 1.7 percent to 457.6 billion U.S. dollars, the best performance for the past six months.
Data showed that U.S. factory orders in June mainly due to increase in primary metal products and the military orders increased significantly. Month, including iron and steel products, primary metals orders grew by 5.2 percent while orders for military capital increased by 16.9 percent, to double-digit growth for the second consecutive month, reflecting the United States in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq to strong demand.
In addition, in June U.S. auto orders grew by 2.3 percent, civilian aircraft orders fell 25 percent. Overall, total orders for durable goods accounted for more than a quarter of the orders for transportation products dropped by 2.7 percent.
If the removal of greater volatility of the transport orders for a product, the month factory orders grew 2.3 percent.
U.S. housing market bubble burst and loan crisis of the impact of continued weakness in U.S. manufacturing. The factory orders in June although the situation in the outside world had expected much higher than the 0.9 percent increase, but some economists said that given the current weak economic environment and severe inflation situation, the U.S. economic outlook is still not optimistic.
The loan-to-year crisis has been, Greenspan said the current crisis is the extent of one hundred years to see, "there may be some into bankruptcy edge of the banks and financial institutions depends on the Government come forward to save." Only when prices tend to Stability, the crisis will end.
Greenspan believes that strengthening the supervision of the disadvantages than advantages, not the right way to resolve the crisis. He said: "It was the regulation is the solution to the current crisis as an effective way, but from a historical point of view, the regulation failed to eliminate from the crisis."
Greenspan believes that the performance of global stock markets, the financial system can safely ride out the storm, the banks can obtain sufficient funds is essential.
Data showed that U.S. factory orders in June mainly due to increase in primary metal products and the military orders increased significantly. Month, including iron and steel products, primary metals orders grew by 5.2 percent while orders for military capital increased by 16.9 percent, to double-digit growth for the second consecutive month, reflecting the United States in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq to strong demand.
In addition, in June U.S. auto orders grew by 2.3 percent, civilian aircraft orders fell 25 percent. Overall, total orders for durable goods accounted for more than a quarter of the orders for transportation products dropped by 2.7 percent.
If the removal of greater volatility of the transport orders for a product, the month factory orders grew 2.3 percent.
U.S. housing market bubble burst and loan crisis of the impact of continued weakness in U.S. manufacturing. The factory orders in June although the situation in the outside world had expected much higher than the 0.9 percent increase, but some economists said that given the current weak economic environment and severe inflation situation, the U.S. economic outlook is still not optimistic.
The loan-to-year crisis has been, Greenspan said the current crisis is the extent of one hundred years to see, "there may be some into bankruptcy edge of the banks and financial institutions depends on the Government come forward to save." Only when prices tend to Stability, the crisis will end.
Greenspan believes that strengthening the supervision of the disadvantages than advantages, not the right way to resolve the crisis. He said: "It was the regulation is the solution to the current crisis as an effective way, but from a historical point of view, the regulation failed to eliminate from the crisis."
Greenspan believes that the performance of global stock markets, the financial system can safely ride out the storm, the banks can obtain sufficient funds is essential.
2008-08-01
Greenspan said the U.S. house prices is far from bottoming out
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan before the Committee on the 31st in a television interview that the U.S. housing prices fall far from bottoming out.
U.S. President George W. Bush has just signed a relief package of bills the real estate market, Greenspan this time position that he does not think that the U.S. Government and Congress to take measures can have immediate effect. But he also pointed out that: "We concentrate on stabilizing the financial system, which is very important."
A number of data indicate that the United States very sluggish real estate market. Standard & Poor's Case - Schiller's housing price index showed that in May U.S. housing prices in 20 major cities in the same period last year decreased by 15.8%. National Association of Realtors said that sales in June fell to second-hand housing 10 to the lowest point. The Commerce Department said new home sales in June fell 33.2 percent year-on-year.
Greenspan from 1987 to 2006 as chairman of the Federal Reserve, some critics believe that the U.S. real estate bubble a few years ago during his term of office of its low interest rate policy has a lot.
U.S. President George W. Bush has just signed a relief package of bills the real estate market, Greenspan this time position that he does not think that the U.S. Government and Congress to take measures can have immediate effect. But he also pointed out that: "We concentrate on stabilizing the financial system, which is very important."
A number of data indicate that the United States very sluggish real estate market. Standard & Poor's Case - Schiller's housing price index showed that in May U.S. housing prices in 20 major cities in the same period last year decreased by 15.8%. National Association of Realtors said that sales in June fell to second-hand housing 10 to the lowest point. The Commerce Department said new home sales in June fell 33.2 percent year-on-year.
Greenspan from 1987 to 2006 as chairman of the Federal Reserve, some critics believe that the U.S. real estate bubble a few years ago during his term of office of its low interest rate policy has a lot.
2008-07-30
Asian foreign exchange market conditions Courier
Financial news and important data:
Japan's Nikkei stock average than the previous day's closing index closed down 1.46 percent.
16:30 Hong Kong time in the United Kingdom announced in June consumer credit, the market forecast is 1.1 billion pounds.
22:00 Hong Kong time in the United States announced in July consumer confidence index, the market forecast is 50.0.
Technical indicators and trend forecast:
Currency volatility forecast tonight in support of resistance
Major currencies:
The dollar was 106.80-108.20 106.58,107.00 108.08,108.50
Euro-dollar 1.5700-1.5820 1.5658,1.5700 1.5798,1.5850
British pound against the dollar 1.9880-2.0000 1.9861,1.9900 2.0000,2.0038
USDCHF 1.0280-1.0390 1.0259,1.0292 1.0390,1.0409
The Australian dollar 0.9520-0.9630 0.9503,0.9515 0.9614,0.9637
New yuan-dollar 0.7370-0.7480 0.7350,0.7367 0.7483,0.7500
USDCAD 1.0150-1.0280 1.0140,1.0180 1.0280,1.0300
Cross Currency:
The euro against the yen 168.80-170.00 168.55,168.80 169.97,170.35
The euro against the pound sterling 0.7850-0.7950 0.7820,0.7850 0.7933,0.7960
Euro against the Swiss franc 1.6230-1.6320 1.6210,1.6225 1.6312,1.6343
Australian dollar against the yen 102.40-103.60 102.10,102.40 103.45,103.70
Asian foreign exchange markets:
The Australian dollar, the initial performance of Kraft today on steady, the current 10 days, 20 days and 50-day moving average prices are 0.9655,0.9642 and 0.9577,9 hovering in the 32-day RSI level.
U.S. dollar against the yen, today's preliminary performance rebounded slightly, the current 10 days, 20 days and 50-day moving average prices are 107.01,106.75 and 106.37,9 in 57 days RSI level.
Euro against the U.S. dollar, today's preliminary to the good performance of cowhide, the current 10 days, 20 days and 50-day moving average prices are 1.5780,1.5788 and 1.5678,9 rose to 47-day RSI level.
British pound against the dollar, the initial volatility upward today, the latest in a level close to the current 10 days, 20 days and 50-day moving average prices are 1.9955,1.9904 and 1.9788,9 to 53 days RSI level.
Comprehensive Assessment: U.S. regulatory authorities last Friday took over the two small U.S. banks and U.S. financial institutions yesterday, "Merrill Lynch" expects third-quarter pre-tax asset write-down of about 5.7 billion U.S. dollars, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson and the four U.S. bank yesterday said it would arrange for an official game market investment products to support housing finance, but the market is lukewarm initial response, prompted investors to worry that the U.S. financial enterprises continue to expand the amount of losses will further damage the U.S. economy and lead the Federal Reserve later this year Difficult to raising interest rates, the dollar thus encountered pressure, the United States the previous day's weighted index fell overall performance. In the absence of major news this stimulus, the weighted index in the United States and the Asia-Pacific cities with narrow range of performance. Investors are waiting for later today the S & P / Case Shiller report on housing prices, the U.S. economy and the Chamber of Commerce announced in July consumer confidence index to determine whether the U.S. economic situation., Another focus of the market is the United States later this week Released by the second quarter preliminary gross domestic product, July non-farm jobs, as well as crude oil prices and the U.S. Congress passed the Government will include infrastructure spending, a new programme to stimulate the economy.
Japan's Nikkei stock average than the previous day's closing index closed down 1.46 percent.
16:30 Hong Kong time in the United Kingdom announced in June consumer credit, the market forecast is 1.1 billion pounds.
22:00 Hong Kong time in the United States announced in July consumer confidence index, the market forecast is 50.0.
Technical indicators and trend forecast:
Currency volatility forecast tonight in support of resistance
Major currencies:
The dollar was 106.80-108.20 106.58,107.00 108.08,108.50
Euro-dollar 1.5700-1.5820 1.5658,1.5700 1.5798,1.5850
British pound against the dollar 1.9880-2.0000 1.9861,1.9900 2.0000,2.0038
USDCHF 1.0280-1.0390 1.0259,1.0292 1.0390,1.0409
The Australian dollar 0.9520-0.9630 0.9503,0.9515 0.9614,0.9637
New yuan-dollar 0.7370-0.7480 0.7350,0.7367 0.7483,0.7500
USDCAD 1.0150-1.0280 1.0140,1.0180 1.0280,1.0300
Cross Currency:
The euro against the yen 168.80-170.00 168.55,168.80 169.97,170.35
The euro against the pound sterling 0.7850-0.7950 0.7820,0.7850 0.7933,0.7960
Euro against the Swiss franc 1.6230-1.6320 1.6210,1.6225 1.6312,1.6343
Australian dollar against the yen 102.40-103.60 102.10,102.40 103.45,103.70
Asian foreign exchange markets:
The Australian dollar, the initial performance of Kraft today on steady, the current 10 days, 20 days and 50-day moving average prices are 0.9655,0.9642 and 0.9577,9 hovering in the 32-day RSI level.
U.S. dollar against the yen, today's preliminary performance rebounded slightly, the current 10 days, 20 days and 50-day moving average prices are 107.01,106.75 and 106.37,9 in 57 days RSI level.
Euro against the U.S. dollar, today's preliminary to the good performance of cowhide, the current 10 days, 20 days and 50-day moving average prices are 1.5780,1.5788 and 1.5678,9 rose to 47-day RSI level.
British pound against the dollar, the initial volatility upward today, the latest in a level close to the current 10 days, 20 days and 50-day moving average prices are 1.9955,1.9904 and 1.9788,9 to 53 days RSI level.
Comprehensive Assessment: U.S. regulatory authorities last Friday took over the two small U.S. banks and U.S. financial institutions yesterday, "Merrill Lynch" expects third-quarter pre-tax asset write-down of about 5.7 billion U.S. dollars, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson and the four U.S. bank yesterday said it would arrange for an official game market investment products to support housing finance, but the market is lukewarm initial response, prompted investors to worry that the U.S. financial enterprises continue to expand the amount of losses will further damage the U.S. economy and lead the Federal Reserve later this year Difficult to raising interest rates, the dollar thus encountered pressure, the United States the previous day's weighted index fell overall performance. In the absence of major news this stimulus, the weighted index in the United States and the Asia-Pacific cities with narrow range of performance. Investors are waiting for later today the S & P / Case Shiller report on housing prices, the U.S. economy and the Chamber of Commerce announced in July consumer confidence index to determine whether the U.S. economic situation., Another focus of the market is the United States later this week Released by the second quarter preliminary gross domestic product, July non-farm jobs, as well as crude oil prices and the U.S. Congress passed the Government will include infrastructure spending, a new programme to stimulate the economy.
The euro short-term downward trend has not changed
[Yesterday recalled]
The dollar's overall trend is up after the first down. ADP released by the United States as unexpectedly strong employment report for the dollar bulls continued to strike back created an opportunity, once again pushed the dollar rose to 73.54. ADP employment report showed that U.S. July employment increased 9,000 accidents, far better than the expected reduction of 50,000.
And yesterday's sharp rebound in crude oil prices, but to stop the dollar's rising pace. The highest technical rebound in oil prices rebounded to above 127 U.S. dollars, such a rebound can continue to maintain, but also need to wait and see, generally eight or nine months a year in oil prices tend to drop certain.
Earlier, three favorable factors - the U.S. stock market rebound, fall in oil prices and economic data and jointly promote the improvement of the dollar. U.S. Chamber of Commerce Tuesday released the data showed that U.S. July consumer confidence index rose to 51.9, higher than the market expected, but also in December last year, the first since the rise. Global economic slowdown and high crude oil prices significantly damage the global demand for crude oil, oil prices plummeted. U.S. stocks in the financial sector began to change in attitude, investors generally believe that the assets of Merrill Lynch recently Chongjian may mean that the banking industry will spend the loan-to-crisis difficulties and promote U.S. financial stocks rose. These three factors, if there are two changes, the dollar's rally may be ending.
Net of the ADP employment report, does not necessarily indicate a strong payrolls data. ADP data last month, far less than expected, while non-farm payrolls and not unexpected. So the trend of the dollar also need heavyweight economic data guidelines.
[Today data]
17:00 Eurozone unemployment rate in June
17:00 to reconcile the euro zone in July consumer price index before the value of 4.0 percent / year; market forecast 4.1 percent / year
20:30 Canada in May of 0.4 percent before the GDP / month; market forecast of 0.3% / month
20:30 U.S. second quarter GDP of 1.0 percent before / year; market forecast of 2.2%
21:45 U.S. July Chicago Purchasing Managers index value of 49.6 before; market forecast 49.0.
The dollar's overall trend is up after the first down. ADP released by the United States as unexpectedly strong employment report for the dollar bulls continued to strike back created an opportunity, once again pushed the dollar rose to 73.54. ADP employment report showed that U.S. July employment increased 9,000 accidents, far better than the expected reduction of 50,000.
And yesterday's sharp rebound in crude oil prices, but to stop the dollar's rising pace. The highest technical rebound in oil prices rebounded to above 127 U.S. dollars, such a rebound can continue to maintain, but also need to wait and see, generally eight or nine months a year in oil prices tend to drop certain.
Earlier, three favorable factors - the U.S. stock market rebound, fall in oil prices and economic data and jointly promote the improvement of the dollar. U.S. Chamber of Commerce Tuesday released the data showed that U.S. July consumer confidence index rose to 51.9, higher than the market expected, but also in December last year, the first since the rise. Global economic slowdown and high crude oil prices significantly damage the global demand for crude oil, oil prices plummeted. U.S. stocks in the financial sector began to change in attitude, investors generally believe that the assets of Merrill Lynch recently Chongjian may mean that the banking industry will spend the loan-to-crisis difficulties and promote U.S. financial stocks rose. These three factors, if there are two changes, the dollar's rally may be ending.
Net of the ADP employment report, does not necessarily indicate a strong payrolls data. ADP data last month, far less than expected, while non-farm payrolls and not unexpected. So the trend of the dollar also need heavyweight economic data guidelines.
[Today data]
17:00 Eurozone unemployment rate in June
17:00 to reconcile the euro zone in July consumer price index before the value of 4.0 percent / year; market forecast 4.1 percent / year
20:30 Canada in May of 0.4 percent before the GDP / month; market forecast of 0.3% / month
20:30 U.S. second quarter GDP of 1.0 percent before / year; market forecast of 2.2%
21:45 U.S. July Chicago Purchasing Managers index value of 49.6 before; market forecast 49.0.
British house prices to a maximum of seven years of decline
The London-based real estate research institutions HOMETRACK27 issued reports that in July the British average price of housing a year-on-year decline in most of the past seven years, and the momentum of decline may continue for several months.
The report showed that, in July in England and Wales average price of single-housing units than the same period last year fell 4.4 percent to 168,500 pounds (about 336,000 U.S. dollars), or higher than June's 1.2 percent, the statistics began in HOMETRACK2001 Since the biggest monthly decline.
HOMETRACK Research Officer Richard Tangnai pointed out that given the current housing market uncertainties facing the short term is unlikely to disappear, the transaction is expected to remain restrained, the downward pressure on prices will continue until this fall.
The loan-to-the United States after the outbreak of the crisis, the British credit markets also be affected, banks generally raised mortgage rates and tight credit, leading to the housing market were hit. Bank of England recently said that the British housing market fell momentum "is being accelerated."
The report showed that, in July in England and Wales average price of single-housing units than the same period last year fell 4.4 percent to 168,500 pounds (about 336,000 U.S. dollars), or higher than June's 1.2 percent, the statistics began in HOMETRACK2001 Since the biggest monthly decline.
HOMETRACK Research Officer Richard Tangnai pointed out that given the current housing market uncertainties facing the short term is unlikely to disappear, the transaction is expected to remain restrained, the downward pressure on prices will continue until this fall.
The loan-to-the United States after the outbreak of the crisis, the British credit markets also be affected, banks generally raised mortgage rates and tight credit, leading to the housing market were hit. Bank of England recently said that the British housing market fell momentum "is being accelerated."
2008-07-29
Economic difficulties when you want to brake the euro high
The euro has been a high range concussion more than three months, the European Central Bank interest rate increase earlier this month announced 25 basis points to 4.25 percent, pushed up by inflation, a strong euro interest rates in the future under the guidance of the reach out and break through the important resistance 1.5800, Along with the loan-to-the United States once again show the aftermath of the crisis, the euro against the dollar once again, but with the recent disclosure of the euro zone economic data, the euro zone can not be optimistic about the prospects, the economic downturn is expected to reduce interest rate increase.
"Fannie Mae" and "mortgage United States" shares plunge triggered a strong emotional turbulence of financial markets, dampened the heart of the U.S. capital market. Constitution of the U.S. financial industry downturn exacerbated by the country's economic plight, the United States has incurred strong policy response. U.S. rescue action, the dollar took the opportunity to rebound, but the long-term housing market downturn and the credit crisis will continue to push the United States "into the slow recession", and the lagging effect of policy on the euro comeback is the vision of favorable factors.
However, the recent euro zone economic data released one after another, the euro zone economy down the obvious signs. July 14 German Finance Ministry said its second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) "significant" decline, the German industrial production data in May fell 2.4 percent, the third straight monthly drop; July 23 euro zone May industrial new -4.4% Annual rate of orders were substantially weaker than expected; euro zone is expected July manufacturing purchasing managers index and Germany in July IFO business climate index fell again. Eurozone economic growth driven from the balance of trade data, the trade deficit showed that the accident the high euro exchange rate has led to the euro zone exports were suppressed enterprises, and emerging market demand is not strong as expected. Therefore economic outlook is not optimistic. Eurozone economic downturn reduced expectations of an interest rate increase, coupled with inflation in the short term is difficult to come down, so the euro zone interest rates to remain on the inflation outlook.
Technical analysis, from K Line of Japan, the euro strong policy voice in the United States and the impact of the euro zone driven by unfavorable economic data out of 200 points or more, breaking Feibonaqi 61.8 percent retracement of the euro short-term downward momentum surviving, 1.5660 will be an important support level, this level of the exchange rate close to Brin Daixia orbit. In this short-term support can be done more effectively confirmed the euro. The medium term, the euro since March so far has been in a situation of finishing wide shocks, but also form the 100-day MA speaking clearly supporting role. Investors may make reference to the average interval to operate.
"Fannie Mae" and "mortgage United States" shares plunge triggered a strong emotional turbulence of financial markets, dampened the heart of the U.S. capital market. Constitution of the U.S. financial industry downturn exacerbated by the country's economic plight, the United States has incurred strong policy response. U.S. rescue action, the dollar took the opportunity to rebound, but the long-term housing market downturn and the credit crisis will continue to push the United States "into the slow recession", and the lagging effect of policy on the euro comeback is the vision of favorable factors.
However, the recent euro zone economic data released one after another, the euro zone economy down the obvious signs. July 14 German Finance Ministry said its second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) "significant" decline, the German industrial production data in May fell 2.4 percent, the third straight monthly drop; July 23 euro zone May industrial new -4.4% Annual rate of orders were substantially weaker than expected; euro zone is expected July manufacturing purchasing managers index and Germany in July IFO business climate index fell again. Eurozone economic growth driven from the balance of trade data, the trade deficit showed that the accident the high euro exchange rate has led to the euro zone exports were suppressed enterprises, and emerging market demand is not strong as expected. Therefore economic outlook is not optimistic. Eurozone economic downturn reduced expectations of an interest rate increase, coupled with inflation in the short term is difficult to come down, so the euro zone interest rates to remain on the inflation outlook.
Technical analysis, from K Line of Japan, the euro strong policy voice in the United States and the impact of the euro zone driven by unfavorable economic data out of 200 points or more, breaking Feibonaqi 61.8 percent retracement of the euro short-term downward momentum surviving, 1.5660 will be an important support level, this level of the exchange rate close to Brin Daixia orbit. In this short-term support can be done more effectively confirmed the euro. The medium term, the euro since March so far has been in a situation of finishing wide shocks, but also form the 100-day MA speaking clearly supporting role. Investors may make reference to the average interval to operate.
Credit banking crisis began damage Australia
Australia's third-largest bank - Australia-New Zealand Bank (ANZ) a profit warning Monday that the global credit crisis has begun to damage Australia had a vibrant banking sector, saying the second half are expected to more than 1 billion U.S. dollars of bad debt for Preparation.
This news against Australia in Australia Bank shares were down 13.2 percent early trading.
ANZ Bank said that the second half to be out about 12 billion Australian dollars (about 1.1 billion U.S. dollars) of bad debt provision, but only three days ago, its larger rival National Australia Bank also set aside a further 830 million The Australian dollar provision for credit losses related to the crisis, the market was surprised.
ANZ Bank in a statement that since the cost of credit impairment (credit impairment cost) of the increase in its 2-year cash earnings per share may fall 20-25 percent a year.
ANZ Bank said its mortgage loan to the United States and sub-sub-optimal secured debt certificate (CDO) is not directly敞口, the commercial real estate敞口about 26 billion Australian dollars, its book value of the assets of eight percent.
This news against Australia in Australia Bank shares were down 13.2 percent early trading.
ANZ Bank said that the second half to be out about 12 billion Australian dollars (about 1.1 billion U.S. dollars) of bad debt provision, but only three days ago, its larger rival National Australia Bank also set aside a further 830 million The Australian dollar provision for credit losses related to the crisis, the market was surprised.
ANZ Bank in a statement that since the cost of credit impairment (credit impairment cost) of the increase in its 2-year cash earnings per share may fall 20-25 percent a year.
ANZ Bank said its mortgage loan to the United States and sub-sub-optimal secured debt certificate (CDO) is not directly敞口, the commercial real estate敞口about 26 billion Australian dollars, its book value of the assets of eight percent.
European Monetary full pullback of the European economy has shown weakness
Comments last week:
Last week, if the U.S. House of Representatives adopted the "two U.S." rescue the draft law; U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson and the U.S. Philadelphia Fed president of expression; some U.S. economic data the better-than-expected performance of the accident, which is lifted and pushed the dollar The reasons for the rebound, then the European economy has shown weakness, the European currency led a comprehensive, may be more comprehensive strong dollar is the achievement of the main reasons.
The dollar index last week to 72.19 after the open, showing slightly after the strong rebound Tandi Chonggao trend. The week before was lowered to 71.74 support, followed by a strong rebound, up to 73.02 after the weekend in 72.60 at the top of a concussion, the ultimate end of the week to 72.82 transactions. Line-up for a 63 point entities in Yangxian, root for a second straight week Yangxian, and line-up entities have expanded.
Last week, the impact of currency market evolution of the main factors are:
1, the European economy into stagflation, the European monetary system long retreat.
While the European Central Bank to continue to hard-line position of high concern about the euro zone inflation of the situation, released last week, Germany and the euro zone economic data showed that euro zone economy may have caught the stagflation of the situation.
The relevant market survey shows that in early 2008 for euro zone economic growth to provide assistance of the German economy in the second quarter of contraction, the market is expected that this Europe's largest economy, second quarter GDP will shrink 0.4 percent. German Finance Ministry on Monday also said that Germany's second-quarter GDP shrinking significantly, but the German economy this year will shrink to complete standstill. Western developed countries in general to GDP recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarterly decline.
Although the current market expectations of Germany and the euro zone economy may not be a recession, that is, two consecutive quarterly decline, or that negative growth, but Germany and the euro zone poor start in the third quarter, the economy, it is revealed last week by the reality of data. July German Ifo business sentiment index for the judgement of 97.5, well below the forecast of 100.0 that investors in the German economic confidence in the prospects of serious decay. German July manufacturing purchasing managers index for the initial 50.9, well below the forecast of 52.0 for August 2005 has been the weakest, close to the edge shrinking; Eurozone July manufacturing purchasing managers index for the initial 47.5, Forecast for 48.7, in June 2003 to the lowest level of the euro zone in July services sector purchasing managers index for the initial 48.3, lower than expected, in June 2003 for the lowest euro-zone in July integrated Purchasing Managers Index The initial value of 47.8 for November 2001 the lowest, are the second consecutive month, a contraction. Eurozone third quarter showed that the economic situation is not optimistic.
If the euro zone economy into recession, on the one hand may shake the European Central Bank adhere to the hardline stance of self-confidence, the other hand, it could trigger political level the ECB's hardline stance even greater challenge. Germany's IFO senior analyst Nabo had said that the European Central Bank need to take measures to reduce inflationary pressures.
Eurozone May unadjusted current account deficit widened to 21.4 billion euros, seasonally adjusted current account in deficit of 7.3 billion euros, reflecting strong euro on the euro zone balance of payments has had problems. Eurozone June M3 money supply annual growth rate of 9.5 percent, lower than expected by 10.3 percent, reflecting interest rate increase and the economic slowdown in corporate demand for credit has slowed down, they also may prompt the European Central Bank re-examine its hardline policy Position.
In addition, the United Kingdom and Switzerland from the data, can also prove the European economy as a whole show of weakness. For example, the United Kingdom in June retail sales decreased 3.9 percent the previous month, in January 1986 for the preparation of the biggest monthly drop since the data, although the British second quarter GDP growth than the 0.2 percent the previous quarter, the continuation of growth momentum, but the market expected the next few quarters will be Contraction; Switzerland in June to reduce exports in real terms of 3.5%, reflecting the European countries do not Mong domestic demand, because the five major economies in the euro zone is Switzerland's main exporters.
The economy into stagflation bound to affect the major European central bank's interest rate decision-making, so the EU have a negative impact of currency, the European currency strength has long dissipated, for example, the Chicago International Monetary Market (IMM) foreign exchange speculators holding the euro Dollar net long positions, from July 15 when weeks of net long 23,049 hand, and substantial reductions in the 4,071 last week to hand.
Of course, the British pound in the last European currency in the performance of the relatively strong side, last week the Bank of England's July meeting records are given the Notes. Bank of England's nine member monetary policy in July on one of the requirements of a rate cut, one that raising interest rates, and the remaining seven people decided to leave rates unchanged, comments one-third pound rate cut is expected to temporarily improved.
2, save "the two U.S." initial bill, dollar bulls confidence doubled.
In addition to the full European currency rebounded from last week, U.S. dollar against other currencies is also Africa and the United States all rose, indicating the dollar's driving force, or by their own fundamentals of the support and encouragement.
Last week, the nation's largest retail banks - Bank of America announced quarterly earnings decreased 41 percent to 3.41 billion U.S. dollars, for the fourth consecutive quarter of decline in the United States to issue credit cards with high-end American Express said the bank announced quarterly earnings dropped to 653 million U.S. dollars, showed that high-end customers of credit card debt default still rising; fourth largest U.S. banks - Wachovia's second quarterly loss for 8.86 billion U.S. dollars, the largest U.S. savings and loan banks - Bank of China each other for the second quarterly loss 3.33 billion U.S. dollars. These giant's poor performance on Wall Street although the market as early as expected, but the United States coincides with the market concerned about how the rescue, "Fannie Mae" and "U.S. mortgage", therefore, the market or on Wall Street rather precarious Worried that this degree against dollar sentiment.
However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last week published the week of the 19 Wall Street for a stock market dealer "naked short selling" to restrict the power of the U.S. short. More importantly, the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday adopted the "Fannie Mae" and "premises of the United States," the rescue plan, although the package in the White House are not satisfied with the content, but U.S. President George W. Bush has said it would sign the bill . Thus, the market is worried about the "Fannie Mae" and "premises of the United States" crisis of the storm eyes, it is very hard for Wall Street set off a new crisis, therefore, enhance confidence in the dollar longs.
Moreover, U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson and the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Puluo Se president of the remarks made against the U.S. dollar also formed a bullish sentiment encouraged.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson said that the United States is about to usher in the property market may turn for the better, in the next few months has started to recover, but to solve all the problems related to the property market may need more time. Paulson reiterated its support for a strong dollar, said a strong dollar is very important. It should be noted that, whether Bush or Paulson, recently talked about a strong dollar exchange rate is not mentioned by the market to determine the wording of this delicate change in the wording indicates the United States reserved the room for intervention in the market. Of the strong dollar's remarks on oil price pullback has played a catalytic role.
U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Pu Luose said last week that even if the job market and the financial markets have not yet recovered, rising inflation may force the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates. He believes that if maintained for too long, too loose monetary policy, will add to inflation. In 2004, under the Greenspan-led Fed, is to be fully recovered after the employment market, the dollar started the benchmark rate from 1 percent of the low gradually improve, then the low level of inflation because the United States, to postpone raising interest rates will not lead to inflation问题. At present, however, the United States is also in the shadow of high inflation, if waiting for the job market recovery began raising interest rates, that inflation may deteriorated. Therefore, the U.S. Fed officials are worried about the inflation situation. Rate hike will curb U.S. dollars for crude oil and commodity speculation.
Further data showed the U.S. economy compared with the European economy, the second quarter may be in the situation of comparative advantage, which means that the U.S. economic cycle ahead of the European economy, the future may go faster if the road to recovery.
Last Friday, the United States announced in June durable goods orders rose 0.8 percent, far better-than-expected 0.5 percent decrease; July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index value of 61.2, rebounded to a four month high point, Shows that the stock market rebounded and oil prices fall in U.S. consumer confidence has become more optimistic.
3, global stock market turbulence higher, yen bulls wavering.
Japan June core inflation rate rose to 10-year high, the core consumer price index rose 1.9 percent, mainly by the continued rise in energy costs pushed up, which showed that Japan's economy still can not determine whether out of a state of deflation, Also likely to fall into stagflation on the situation. This is because Japan's June exports fell from a year earlier accident, for the first time in the past five years, reflecting the global economy cooling down simultaneously, has affected Japan's external demand weakened.
Bank of Japan Shirakawa Fang-ming said that the tight monetary policy in response to rising raw material costs is not appropriate, and the central bank on inflation and downside risks equally concerned about the economy; member of the Bank of Japan to consider water Atsushi said that the downside risks to the economy have a high degree of concern about inflation. This shows that although inflationary pressures heating up, but the recent Bank of Japan will not affect the decision to leave interest rates unchanged. It is clear that Japan's domestic factors still affecting the yen is not the main reason for the trend.
Therefore, the yen remains bullish Wall Street and walk the movements of Japanese stocks advance and retreat, on-yen last week lowered, the stock market entirely subject to the rhythm.
4, oil, gold continued pullback, the value of the currency longs up empty.
A stronger dollar, oil prices continued to pullback and promote gold and commodity prices adjusted for the final has finally spread to the commodity currencies of Australia and Canada.
Of course, the Australian dollar Shenfutiaozheng, there are fundamental factors. Data show that in Australia the second quarter producer price index (PPI) over the previous quarter growth of 1.0 percent, up 4.7 percent, lower than the expected growth of 1.6% and 5.3% in the second quarter consumer price index (CPI ) Over the previous quarter growth of 1.5 percent, up 4.5 percent, higher than the expected increase of 1.2 percent and 4.3 percent. Although a record annual rate of inflation since 2001, the highest level, but the market is not that large Chu Ge, the Reserve Bank of Australia will not be prompted further interest rate increase. For example, the current interest rate futures markets reflected the trend, the Australian central bank lowered interest rates next year, the probability of about 50 percent, more than the inflation data released last week before the 30 percent, has been enhanced, show the market that the central bank to raise interest rates pre - Adequate action to curb inflation, lower economic growth.
In addition, the assets of Australia's largest bank National Australia Bank announced that it has further Provision of 8.3 billion Australian dollars (about 798 million U.S. dollars) and the United States, the provision for loan-to-related losses, the market is worried that the Australian banking industry may There's more of the loan-to-related losses.
Canada May retail sales increased less than expected, only 0.4 percent growth the previous month, is expected to grow 0.6 percent, which is the Canadian dollar weakness led to a negative factor.
Last week the market:
*** Currency trading week opened a week maximum ** ** ** week minimum closed the week up or weeks ***
The dollar index 72.19 73.02 71.74 72.86 +67 points
Euro / dollar 1.5836 1.5944 1.5627 1.5703 -133 points
Sterling / dollar 1.9958 2.0075 1.9814 1.9911 -47 points
Dollar / Swiss franc 1.0225 1.0406 1.0134 1.0366 +141 points
Dollar / yen 106.92 107.98 106.03 107.81 +89 points
Aussie / dollar 0.9719 0.9792 0.9536 0.9555 -164 points
Dollar / Canadian dollar 1.0062 1.0205 0.9988 1.0191 +129 points
Spot gold 955.25 975.95 915.80 928.70 -26.55 dollars
Crude oil futures 128.88 132.07 122.50 123.43 -5.45 dollars
Should pay attention to fundamentals this week and the following information: (focus on the band **)
United States:
Tuesday, 00:30 ** Fed Governor Mishkin made a speech
Tuesday, 21:00 U.S. May Standard & Poor's / Case-shiller price changes
Tuesday, 22:00 ** U.S. June consumer confidence index
Wednesday, 20:15 ** United States in July ADP private sector employment population changes
Thursday, 20:30 ** U.S. second-quarter preliminary GDP
Thursday, 21:45 ** U.S. July Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
Friday, 20:30 ** U.S. July employment report
Friday, 22:00 ** U.S. Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index in July
Friday, 22:00 U.S. May construction spending
Euro area:
Monday, 14:00 Germany in August Gfk Consumer Confidence Index
Tuesday, 16:30 ** Germany in July Consumer Price Index initial value
Wednesday, 17:00 ** euro zone business climate index in July
Thursday, July unemployment rate in Germany 16:00
Thursday, 17:00 ** Eurozone July consumer price index to reconcile the initial value
Thursday, June unemployment rate in the euro zone 17:00
Friday, 15:55 ** Germany in July manufacturing PMI index final
Friday, 16:00 ** Eurozone July manufacturing PMI index final
United Kingdom:
Tuesday, 16:30 June consumer credit
Thursday, 14:00 ** British Nationwide house prices in July
Friday, 7:01 Britain in July Gfk Consumer Confidence
Friday, 16:30 ** United Kingdom in July manufacturing PMI index
Japan:
Tuesday, 07:30 Japan's unemployment rate in June
Tuesday, 07:30 Japan's household spending in June all
Tuesday, 7:50 ** Japan June retail sales
Wednesday, 07:50 ** Japan's industrial production in June
Thursday, 07:15 ** Japan's July manufacturing PMI index
Thursday, 09:30 Japan in June overtime pay
Thursday, 13:00 Japan June housing starts and construction orders
Other aspects:
Tuesday, 09:30 ** National Australia Bank (NAB) business survey situation in the second quarter
Wednesday, 09:30 Australia in June building permits
Wednesday, 17:30 ** Switzerland in July KOF leading indicator
Wednesday, 20:30 Canada in June producer price index
Thursday, 09:30 ** Australia in June and the second quarter retail sales
Thursday, 09:30 ** Australia in June the international balance of trade
Thursday, 16:45 ** Switzerland in July Consumer Price Index
Thursday, 20:30 ** Canada May GDP
Outlook this week:
Oil prices, U.S. dollar, recently formed a series of three-ring sets, interrelated, Central, Central closely. The foreign exchange market participants, put oil prices and Wall Street focused on the eyes, when oil prices fell and U.S. stocks rose, do more confidence in the dollar will strengthen the other hand, would choose to go short dollars. The stock market participants, is also the focus in the price of oil above the drop in oil prices seems to be a rising stock market rebound or the necessary conditions. So, oil prices seem to have become in this series sets a key element. In fact, the U.S. dollar or the U.S. can not also play a key role too? » Sharp oil price speculation was, of course, have long-term imbalance between supply and demand at work, the current rapid decline, it was explained as a global economic slowdown, making short-term imbalance between supply and demand may mitigate or reverse. However, if we stand in the perspective of market speculation, skyrocketing oil prices, should be interpreted as the U.S. and global stock markets go bears, no floating capital investment direction, thereby squeeze in the oil market, and it not weak dollar, the choice of floating capital The oil market hedge.
So, if the future gradually stronger dollar, U.S. stocks edge upwards, how can the oil-leading position. Therefore, the U.S. authorities stressed that the current strength of the value of the dollar, which is not like before, the false statement. At present, the more porous the U.S. financial system, in trouble, the U.S. authorities stressed that a strong dollar will become. Because if the laissez-faire dollar fell disorder, the United States may be a disaster. The future, when the Wall Street weathered the crisis, perhaps the U.S. authorities will also focus to the trade deficit, the resumption of the dollar's depreciation trend. This is perhaps viewed dollars dialectics.
At present, oil prices and Wall Street trends, can indeed affect the dollar as the key factor. U.S. financial giant's two main basic issue has been disclosed, the Wall Street of an impact this has been basically completed, subject to restrictions "naked short selling" under the impact of short-term decline in U.S. stocks the possibility of a large scale has not. But Wall Street's problems, not far from the end of the year to September to October, perhaps the news will be violence. This is because the Fed revealed last week, Wall Street traders on the Fed a 25 billion U.S. dollars through securities borrowing and lending of tools (TSLF) provided by the Ministry of Finance Securities tender for the 2.07 multiplier, that is 51.72 billion U.S. dollars, a dealer show that the capital flows And there is still the problem. Moreover, the U.S. banking industry through the discount window last week directly from the Fed's basic access to credit (primary credit) increased to a record high, showed that the U.S. banking industry increasingly need to rely on the Fed to provide low-cost financing, to improve operating profits.
Prior periods have been talking about that August is the Western countries in the main summer holiday, regardless of the oil market, the stock market or the main market participants are likely to leave leave the closed position敞口, lock profitable, so that when the Six months or a trend of the last three months of market prices, at the approach of August before the market is likely due to profit-taking and reversal. The recent decline in oil prices and Wall Street rebound, we can all make such understanding. So, after entering August, the market may show disorder shocks, fluctuations in the retail market characteristics, namely, oil prices or U.S. stocks on the market's influence, may be temporarily weakened.
If so, the market may re-focus attention to the prospects of rate hikes dollars clues. Although the recent U.S. Fed officials have the right to vote on most of the more hard-line remarks that the dollar needs as soon as possible interest rate increase, but by the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, deputy chairman and directors of the core components of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates as early as possible whether or not agree with the view, Also need to observe. This week, Fed Governor Mishkin's speech, the Fed may be able to reveal the core level position.
Of course, if the market entry and disorderly fluctuations in the pattern, then the influence of performance data will increase, announced this week coincides with the U.S. July employment report, the current employment market is the United States in the field of economic weaknesses, so unless there accident General employment report will have a negative impact on the dollar as a possibility. The market expected U.S. July unemployment rate will be increased further to 5.6 percent, non-farm payrolls will be reduced by 65,000 people last month, is to reduce 62,000 people. In addition, the observation of the United States in July for Supply Management's manufacturing index's performance, the control of similar indicators in Europe, the United States can reveal whether the current economic situation but slightly better in Europe, the strength of the dollar Duokong the growth and decline, there will be more important impact. In short, this week in the data, the dollar should remain cautious. But the U.S. market at present the second quarter GDP performance is more optimistic about the expected growth will be faster than the first quarter, to 1.9 percent growth in the first quarter, growth was 1.0 percent. The end of last year, the beginning of this year, including Alan Greenspan, the United States are expected to be the first half of the economy into recession, but the actual growth rate is accelerating Zhuji, This is ironic that the Man You.
In Africa and the United States monetary data, this week there are so few of Aspect. One is the German and euro zone inflation indicators in July, the euro zone is expected July inflation rate will further increase to 4.2 percent, may exacerbate the ECB's hardline stance, but it can also make the market more worried about the euro zone economy into stagflation dilemma. The second is the United Kingdom in July manufacturing PMI index, the manufacturing sector in the euro zone in July the second consecutive month of decline, it is expected that the British manufacturing sector conditions in July will also be difficult to optimistic performance. Third, the Australian second-quarter economic situation of enterprises and the second quarter retail sales performance, is expected to reflect the Australian central bank to raise interest rates so that economic initiatives already in the process of cooling down. Fourth, in Canada in May GDP, Canada last week in May retail sales weaker than expected performance of the accident, to Canada in May cast the GDP performance variables, the market is expected to grow by 0.2 percent, lower than April's 0.4 percent growth.
Technical analysis:
The dollar index: At present, the line MACD indicators in the bottom of a shaft 0 on 0-axis signs of wear, and the line continued to produce positive column, line, 70 more than in the RSI indicator of the strength of regional operation, the rail line Brin are on track Alice signs that this week the U.S. dollar will continue the pattern of strong rebound. This week, the dollar index's initial resistance at 73.10-73.20 area, strong resistance at around 73.40, 73.80 storm did not rule out the possibility of initial support at around 72.75, strong support at 72.55-72.45 area.
The euro against the U.S. dollar: At present, the line MACD indicators in the Sicha 0 axis downlink, this week will be the next to wear 0 reel, line, RSI indicators in 30 regional hovering near the weak, again dropped to below 30 may be vulnerable region , Brin on track under the rail line to start the dumping, the euro this week showed that support will be further lowered the possibility of too large. This week, the euro against the dollar initial resistance at 1.5710-1.5730 area, strong resistance at around 1.5780; initial support at 1.5620-1.5600 area, strong support at around 1.5560.
British pound against the U.S. dollar: At present, the line MACD indicators in the Sicha 0 axis divergence downlink, RSI on the line in the 50-30 regional swing indicators, a further drop to 30 following the signs, walk-track line Brin, indicates this week British pound adjustment trend will continue, and further lowered to the rail line under the support of Brin. This week, the British pound against the U.S. dollar initial resistance at 1.9920-1.9940 area, strong resistance at 1.9965-1.9995 area; initial support at 1.9805-1.9785 area, strong support at 1.9740-1.9710 area.
USDCHF: Currently, the lines on the MACD indicators have been wearing Jincha 0 reel, line, 70 more than in the RSI indicator of the strength of regional operation, Brin line on the track early in the opening run, indicates this week will further weaken the Swiss franc. This week, the U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc the initial support at around 1.0350, strong support at 1.0310-1.0270 area; initial resistance at 1.0420-1.0440 area, strong resistance at around 1.0520.
USDJPY: At present, the line MACD indicators in the emerging Jincha 0 axis, the line on the RSI indicator in the vicinity of 70 swing, re-entered 70 more signs of strong regional and Brin on track in opening line running prototype that The yen to weaken further the risk of looking for support. This week, the U.S. dollar against the yen in the initial support at around 107.50-107.10, strong support at around 106.80-106.60; initial resistance at around 108.40, strong resistance at 108.85-109.25 area.
USDCAD: Currently, the lines on the MACD indicators Jincha wear 0 reel, line, enter the RSI indicator of the strength of more than 70 regional, in a passive posture run, on-track follow-Brin, this week indicated that a further dollar strength , The impact on the rail line Brin resistance on the request. This week, the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar's initial resistance at 1.0215-1.0255 area, strong resistance at around 1.0320; initial support at 1.0150-1.0140 area, strong support at around 1.0100.
Australian dollar: The MACD indicators on the line in the Sicha 0 axis divergence downlink, this week will be close to 0 reel, line, RSI indicator dropped to 30 following the disadvantaged regions, a further sign of low, the line Brin Rail operating openings are the embryonic form, the Australian dollar this week will show that the overall Tandi seek further support. This week, the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar initial resistance at 0.9585-0.9605 area, strong resistance at 0.9630-0.9640 area; initial support at around 0.9520, strong support at 0.9480-0.9455 area.
Last week, if the U.S. House of Representatives adopted the "two U.S." rescue the draft law; U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson and the U.S. Philadelphia Fed president of expression; some U.S. economic data the better-than-expected performance of the accident, which is lifted and pushed the dollar The reasons for the rebound, then the European economy has shown weakness, the European currency led a comprehensive, may be more comprehensive strong dollar is the achievement of the main reasons.
The dollar index last week to 72.19 after the open, showing slightly after the strong rebound Tandi Chonggao trend. The week before was lowered to 71.74 support, followed by a strong rebound, up to 73.02 after the weekend in 72.60 at the top of a concussion, the ultimate end of the week to 72.82 transactions. Line-up for a 63 point entities in Yangxian, root for a second straight week Yangxian, and line-up entities have expanded.
Last week, the impact of currency market evolution of the main factors are:
1, the European economy into stagflation, the European monetary system long retreat.
While the European Central Bank to continue to hard-line position of high concern about the euro zone inflation of the situation, released last week, Germany and the euro zone economic data showed that euro zone economy may have caught the stagflation of the situation.
The relevant market survey shows that in early 2008 for euro zone economic growth to provide assistance of the German economy in the second quarter of contraction, the market is expected that this Europe's largest economy, second quarter GDP will shrink 0.4 percent. German Finance Ministry on Monday also said that Germany's second-quarter GDP shrinking significantly, but the German economy this year will shrink to complete standstill. Western developed countries in general to GDP recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarterly decline.
Although the current market expectations of Germany and the euro zone economy may not be a recession, that is, two consecutive quarterly decline, or that negative growth, but Germany and the euro zone poor start in the third quarter, the economy, it is revealed last week by the reality of data. July German Ifo business sentiment index for the judgement of 97.5, well below the forecast of 100.0 that investors in the German economic confidence in the prospects of serious decay. German July manufacturing purchasing managers index for the initial 50.9, well below the forecast of 52.0 for August 2005 has been the weakest, close to the edge shrinking; Eurozone July manufacturing purchasing managers index for the initial 47.5, Forecast for 48.7, in June 2003 to the lowest level of the euro zone in July services sector purchasing managers index for the initial 48.3, lower than expected, in June 2003 for the lowest euro-zone in July integrated Purchasing Managers Index The initial value of 47.8 for November 2001 the lowest, are the second consecutive month, a contraction. Eurozone third quarter showed that the economic situation is not optimistic.
If the euro zone economy into recession, on the one hand may shake the European Central Bank adhere to the hardline stance of self-confidence, the other hand, it could trigger political level the ECB's hardline stance even greater challenge. Germany's IFO senior analyst Nabo had said that the European Central Bank need to take measures to reduce inflationary pressures.
Eurozone May unadjusted current account deficit widened to 21.4 billion euros, seasonally adjusted current account in deficit of 7.3 billion euros, reflecting strong euro on the euro zone balance of payments has had problems. Eurozone June M3 money supply annual growth rate of 9.5 percent, lower than expected by 10.3 percent, reflecting interest rate increase and the economic slowdown in corporate demand for credit has slowed down, they also may prompt the European Central Bank re-examine its hardline policy Position.
In addition, the United Kingdom and Switzerland from the data, can also prove the European economy as a whole show of weakness. For example, the United Kingdom in June retail sales decreased 3.9 percent the previous month, in January 1986 for the preparation of the biggest monthly drop since the data, although the British second quarter GDP growth than the 0.2 percent the previous quarter, the continuation of growth momentum, but the market expected the next few quarters will be Contraction; Switzerland in June to reduce exports in real terms of 3.5%, reflecting the European countries do not Mong domestic demand, because the five major economies in the euro zone is Switzerland's main exporters.
The economy into stagflation bound to affect the major European central bank's interest rate decision-making, so the EU have a negative impact of currency, the European currency strength has long dissipated, for example, the Chicago International Monetary Market (IMM) foreign exchange speculators holding the euro Dollar net long positions, from July 15 when weeks of net long 23,049 hand, and substantial reductions in the 4,071 last week to hand.
Of course, the British pound in the last European currency in the performance of the relatively strong side, last week the Bank of England's July meeting records are given the Notes. Bank of England's nine member monetary policy in July on one of the requirements of a rate cut, one that raising interest rates, and the remaining seven people decided to leave rates unchanged, comments one-third pound rate cut is expected to temporarily improved.
2, save "the two U.S." initial bill, dollar bulls confidence doubled.
In addition to the full European currency rebounded from last week, U.S. dollar against other currencies is also Africa and the United States all rose, indicating the dollar's driving force, or by their own fundamentals of the support and encouragement.
Last week, the nation's largest retail banks - Bank of America announced quarterly earnings decreased 41 percent to 3.41 billion U.S. dollars, for the fourth consecutive quarter of decline in the United States to issue credit cards with high-end American Express said the bank announced quarterly earnings dropped to 653 million U.S. dollars, showed that high-end customers of credit card debt default still rising; fourth largest U.S. banks - Wachovia's second quarterly loss for 8.86 billion U.S. dollars, the largest U.S. savings and loan banks - Bank of China each other for the second quarterly loss 3.33 billion U.S. dollars. These giant's poor performance on Wall Street although the market as early as expected, but the United States coincides with the market concerned about how the rescue, "Fannie Mae" and "U.S. mortgage", therefore, the market or on Wall Street rather precarious Worried that this degree against dollar sentiment.
However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last week published the week of the 19 Wall Street for a stock market dealer "naked short selling" to restrict the power of the U.S. short. More importantly, the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday adopted the "Fannie Mae" and "premises of the United States," the rescue plan, although the package in the White House are not satisfied with the content, but U.S. President George W. Bush has said it would sign the bill . Thus, the market is worried about the "Fannie Mae" and "premises of the United States" crisis of the storm eyes, it is very hard for Wall Street set off a new crisis, therefore, enhance confidence in the dollar longs.
Moreover, U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson and the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Puluo Se president of the remarks made against the U.S. dollar also formed a bullish sentiment encouraged.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson said that the United States is about to usher in the property market may turn for the better, in the next few months has started to recover, but to solve all the problems related to the property market may need more time. Paulson reiterated its support for a strong dollar, said a strong dollar is very important. It should be noted that, whether Bush or Paulson, recently talked about a strong dollar exchange rate is not mentioned by the market to determine the wording of this delicate change in the wording indicates the United States reserved the room for intervention in the market. Of the strong dollar's remarks on oil price pullback has played a catalytic role.
U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Pu Luose said last week that even if the job market and the financial markets have not yet recovered, rising inflation may force the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates. He believes that if maintained for too long, too loose monetary policy, will add to inflation. In 2004, under the Greenspan-led Fed, is to be fully recovered after the employment market, the dollar started the benchmark rate from 1 percent of the low gradually improve, then the low level of inflation because the United States, to postpone raising interest rates will not lead to inflation问题. At present, however, the United States is also in the shadow of high inflation, if waiting for the job market recovery began raising interest rates, that inflation may deteriorated. Therefore, the U.S. Fed officials are worried about the inflation situation. Rate hike will curb U.S. dollars for crude oil and commodity speculation.
Further data showed the U.S. economy compared with the European economy, the second quarter may be in the situation of comparative advantage, which means that the U.S. economic cycle ahead of the European economy, the future may go faster if the road to recovery.
Last Friday, the United States announced in June durable goods orders rose 0.8 percent, far better-than-expected 0.5 percent decrease; July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index value of 61.2, rebounded to a four month high point, Shows that the stock market rebounded and oil prices fall in U.S. consumer confidence has become more optimistic.
3, global stock market turbulence higher, yen bulls wavering.
Japan June core inflation rate rose to 10-year high, the core consumer price index rose 1.9 percent, mainly by the continued rise in energy costs pushed up, which showed that Japan's economy still can not determine whether out of a state of deflation, Also likely to fall into stagflation on the situation. This is because Japan's June exports fell from a year earlier accident, for the first time in the past five years, reflecting the global economy cooling down simultaneously, has affected Japan's external demand weakened.
Bank of Japan Shirakawa Fang-ming said that the tight monetary policy in response to rising raw material costs is not appropriate, and the central bank on inflation and downside risks equally concerned about the economy; member of the Bank of Japan to consider water Atsushi said that the downside risks to the economy have a high degree of concern about inflation. This shows that although inflationary pressures heating up, but the recent Bank of Japan will not affect the decision to leave interest rates unchanged. It is clear that Japan's domestic factors still affecting the yen is not the main reason for the trend.
Therefore, the yen remains bullish Wall Street and walk the movements of Japanese stocks advance and retreat, on-yen last week lowered, the stock market entirely subject to the rhythm.
4, oil, gold continued pullback, the value of the currency longs up empty.
A stronger dollar, oil prices continued to pullback and promote gold and commodity prices adjusted for the final has finally spread to the commodity currencies of Australia and Canada.
Of course, the Australian dollar Shenfutiaozheng, there are fundamental factors. Data show that in Australia the second quarter producer price index (PPI) over the previous quarter growth of 1.0 percent, up 4.7 percent, lower than the expected growth of 1.6% and 5.3% in the second quarter consumer price index (CPI ) Over the previous quarter growth of 1.5 percent, up 4.5 percent, higher than the expected increase of 1.2 percent and 4.3 percent. Although a record annual rate of inflation since 2001, the highest level, but the market is not that large Chu Ge, the Reserve Bank of Australia will not be prompted further interest rate increase. For example, the current interest rate futures markets reflected the trend, the Australian central bank lowered interest rates next year, the probability of about 50 percent, more than the inflation data released last week before the 30 percent, has been enhanced, show the market that the central bank to raise interest rates pre - Adequate action to curb inflation, lower economic growth.
In addition, the assets of Australia's largest bank National Australia Bank announced that it has further Provision of 8.3 billion Australian dollars (about 798 million U.S. dollars) and the United States, the provision for loan-to-related losses, the market is worried that the Australian banking industry may There's more of the loan-to-related losses.
Canada May retail sales increased less than expected, only 0.4 percent growth the previous month, is expected to grow 0.6 percent, which is the Canadian dollar weakness led to a negative factor.
Last week the market:
*** Currency trading week opened a week maximum ** ** ** week minimum closed the week up or weeks ***
The dollar index 72.19 73.02 71.74 72.86 +67 points
Euro / dollar 1.5836 1.5944 1.5627 1.5703 -133 points
Sterling / dollar 1.9958 2.0075 1.9814 1.9911 -47 points
Dollar / Swiss franc 1.0225 1.0406 1.0134 1.0366 +141 points
Dollar / yen 106.92 107.98 106.03 107.81 +89 points
Aussie / dollar 0.9719 0.9792 0.9536 0.9555 -164 points
Dollar / Canadian dollar 1.0062 1.0205 0.9988 1.0191 +129 points
Spot gold 955.25 975.95 915.80 928.70 -26.55 dollars
Crude oil futures 128.88 132.07 122.50 123.43 -5.45 dollars
Should pay attention to fundamentals this week and the following information: (focus on the band **)
United States:
Tuesday, 00:30 ** Fed Governor Mishkin made a speech
Tuesday, 21:00 U.S. May Standard & Poor's / Case-shiller price changes
Tuesday, 22:00 ** U.S. June consumer confidence index
Wednesday, 20:15 ** United States in July ADP private sector employment population changes
Thursday, 20:30 ** U.S. second-quarter preliminary GDP
Thursday, 21:45 ** U.S. July Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
Friday, 20:30 ** U.S. July employment report
Friday, 22:00 ** U.S. Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index in July
Friday, 22:00 U.S. May construction spending
Euro area:
Monday, 14:00 Germany in August Gfk Consumer Confidence Index
Tuesday, 16:30 ** Germany in July Consumer Price Index initial value
Wednesday, 17:00 ** euro zone business climate index in July
Thursday, July unemployment rate in Germany 16:00
Thursday, 17:00 ** Eurozone July consumer price index to reconcile the initial value
Thursday, June unemployment rate in the euro zone 17:00
Friday, 15:55 ** Germany in July manufacturing PMI index final
Friday, 16:00 ** Eurozone July manufacturing PMI index final
United Kingdom:
Tuesday, 16:30 June consumer credit
Thursday, 14:00 ** British Nationwide house prices in July
Friday, 7:01 Britain in July Gfk Consumer Confidence
Friday, 16:30 ** United Kingdom in July manufacturing PMI index
Japan:
Tuesday, 07:30 Japan's unemployment rate in June
Tuesday, 07:30 Japan's household spending in June all
Tuesday, 7:50 ** Japan June retail sales
Wednesday, 07:50 ** Japan's industrial production in June
Thursday, 07:15 ** Japan's July manufacturing PMI index
Thursday, 09:30 Japan in June overtime pay
Thursday, 13:00 Japan June housing starts and construction orders
Other aspects:
Tuesday, 09:30 ** National Australia Bank (NAB) business survey situation in the second quarter
Wednesday, 09:30 Australia in June building permits
Wednesday, 17:30 ** Switzerland in July KOF leading indicator
Wednesday, 20:30 Canada in June producer price index
Thursday, 09:30 ** Australia in June and the second quarter retail sales
Thursday, 09:30 ** Australia in June the international balance of trade
Thursday, 16:45 ** Switzerland in July Consumer Price Index
Thursday, 20:30 ** Canada May GDP
Outlook this week:
Oil prices, U.S. dollar, recently formed a series of three-ring sets, interrelated, Central, Central closely. The foreign exchange market participants, put oil prices and Wall Street focused on the eyes, when oil prices fell and U.S. stocks rose, do more confidence in the dollar will strengthen the other hand, would choose to go short dollars. The stock market participants, is also the focus in the price of oil above the drop in oil prices seems to be a rising stock market rebound or the necessary conditions. So, oil prices seem to have become in this series sets a key element. In fact, the U.S. dollar or the U.S. can not also play a key role too? » Sharp oil price speculation was, of course, have long-term imbalance between supply and demand at work, the current rapid decline, it was explained as a global economic slowdown, making short-term imbalance between supply and demand may mitigate or reverse. However, if we stand in the perspective of market speculation, skyrocketing oil prices, should be interpreted as the U.S. and global stock markets go bears, no floating capital investment direction, thereby squeeze in the oil market, and it not weak dollar, the choice of floating capital The oil market hedge.
So, if the future gradually stronger dollar, U.S. stocks edge upwards, how can the oil-leading position. Therefore, the U.S. authorities stressed that the current strength of the value of the dollar, which is not like before, the false statement. At present, the more porous the U.S. financial system, in trouble, the U.S. authorities stressed that a strong dollar will become. Because if the laissez-faire dollar fell disorder, the United States may be a disaster. The future, when the Wall Street weathered the crisis, perhaps the U.S. authorities will also focus to the trade deficit, the resumption of the dollar's depreciation trend. This is perhaps viewed dollars dialectics.
At present, oil prices and Wall Street trends, can indeed affect the dollar as the key factor. U.S. financial giant's two main basic issue has been disclosed, the Wall Street of an impact this has been basically completed, subject to restrictions "naked short selling" under the impact of short-term decline in U.S. stocks the possibility of a large scale has not. But Wall Street's problems, not far from the end of the year to September to October, perhaps the news will be violence. This is because the Fed revealed last week, Wall Street traders on the Fed a 25 billion U.S. dollars through securities borrowing and lending of tools (TSLF) provided by the Ministry of Finance Securities tender for the 2.07 multiplier, that is 51.72 billion U.S. dollars, a dealer show that the capital flows And there is still the problem. Moreover, the U.S. banking industry through the discount window last week directly from the Fed's basic access to credit (primary credit) increased to a record high, showed that the U.S. banking industry increasingly need to rely on the Fed to provide low-cost financing, to improve operating profits.
Prior periods have been talking about that August is the Western countries in the main summer holiday, regardless of the oil market, the stock market or the main market participants are likely to leave leave the closed position敞口, lock profitable, so that when the Six months or a trend of the last three months of market prices, at the approach of August before the market is likely due to profit-taking and reversal. The recent decline in oil prices and Wall Street rebound, we can all make such understanding. So, after entering August, the market may show disorder shocks, fluctuations in the retail market characteristics, namely, oil prices or U.S. stocks on the market's influence, may be temporarily weakened.
If so, the market may re-focus attention to the prospects of rate hikes dollars clues. Although the recent U.S. Fed officials have the right to vote on most of the more hard-line remarks that the dollar needs as soon as possible interest rate increase, but by the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, deputy chairman and directors of the core components of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates as early as possible whether or not agree with the view, Also need to observe. This week, Fed Governor Mishkin's speech, the Fed may be able to reveal the core level position.
Of course, if the market entry and disorderly fluctuations in the pattern, then the influence of performance data will increase, announced this week coincides with the U.S. July employment report, the current employment market is the United States in the field of economic weaknesses, so unless there accident General employment report will have a negative impact on the dollar as a possibility. The market expected U.S. July unemployment rate will be increased further to 5.6 percent, non-farm payrolls will be reduced by 65,000 people last month, is to reduce 62,000 people. In addition, the observation of the United States in July for Supply Management's manufacturing index's performance, the control of similar indicators in Europe, the United States can reveal whether the current economic situation but slightly better in Europe, the strength of the dollar Duokong the growth and decline, there will be more important impact. In short, this week in the data, the dollar should remain cautious. But the U.S. market at present the second quarter GDP performance is more optimistic about the expected growth will be faster than the first quarter, to 1.9 percent growth in the first quarter, growth was 1.0 percent. The end of last year, the beginning of this year, including Alan Greenspan, the United States are expected to be the first half of the economy into recession, but the actual growth rate is accelerating Zhuji, This is ironic that the Man You.
In Africa and the United States monetary data, this week there are so few of Aspect. One is the German and euro zone inflation indicators in July, the euro zone is expected July inflation rate will further increase to 4.2 percent, may exacerbate the ECB's hardline stance, but it can also make the market more worried about the euro zone economy into stagflation dilemma. The second is the United Kingdom in July manufacturing PMI index, the manufacturing sector in the euro zone in July the second consecutive month of decline, it is expected that the British manufacturing sector conditions in July will also be difficult to optimistic performance. Third, the Australian second-quarter economic situation of enterprises and the second quarter retail sales performance, is expected to reflect the Australian central bank to raise interest rates so that economic initiatives already in the process of cooling down. Fourth, in Canada in May GDP, Canada last week in May retail sales weaker than expected performance of the accident, to Canada in May cast the GDP performance variables, the market is expected to grow by 0.2 percent, lower than April's 0.4 percent growth.
Technical analysis:
The dollar index: At present, the line MACD indicators in the bottom of a shaft 0 on 0-axis signs of wear, and the line continued to produce positive column, line, 70 more than in the RSI indicator of the strength of regional operation, the rail line Brin are on track Alice signs that this week the U.S. dollar will continue the pattern of strong rebound. This week, the dollar index's initial resistance at 73.10-73.20 area, strong resistance at around 73.40, 73.80 storm did not rule out the possibility of initial support at around 72.75, strong support at 72.55-72.45 area.
The euro against the U.S. dollar: At present, the line MACD indicators in the Sicha 0 axis downlink, this week will be the next to wear 0 reel, line, RSI indicators in 30 regional hovering near the weak, again dropped to below 30 may be vulnerable region , Brin on track under the rail line to start the dumping, the euro this week showed that support will be further lowered the possibility of too large. This week, the euro against the dollar initial resistance at 1.5710-1.5730 area, strong resistance at around 1.5780; initial support at 1.5620-1.5600 area, strong support at around 1.5560.
British pound against the U.S. dollar: At present, the line MACD indicators in the Sicha 0 axis divergence downlink, RSI on the line in the 50-30 regional swing indicators, a further drop to 30 following the signs, walk-track line Brin, indicates this week British pound adjustment trend will continue, and further lowered to the rail line under the support of Brin. This week, the British pound against the U.S. dollar initial resistance at 1.9920-1.9940 area, strong resistance at 1.9965-1.9995 area; initial support at 1.9805-1.9785 area, strong support at 1.9740-1.9710 area.
USDCHF: Currently, the lines on the MACD indicators have been wearing Jincha 0 reel, line, 70 more than in the RSI indicator of the strength of regional operation, Brin line on the track early in the opening run, indicates this week will further weaken the Swiss franc. This week, the U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc the initial support at around 1.0350, strong support at 1.0310-1.0270 area; initial resistance at 1.0420-1.0440 area, strong resistance at around 1.0520.
USDJPY: At present, the line MACD indicators in the emerging Jincha 0 axis, the line on the RSI indicator in the vicinity of 70 swing, re-entered 70 more signs of strong regional and Brin on track in opening line running prototype that The yen to weaken further the risk of looking for support. This week, the U.S. dollar against the yen in the initial support at around 107.50-107.10, strong support at around 106.80-106.60; initial resistance at around 108.40, strong resistance at 108.85-109.25 area.
USDCAD: Currently, the lines on the MACD indicators Jincha wear 0 reel, line, enter the RSI indicator of the strength of more than 70 regional, in a passive posture run, on-track follow-Brin, this week indicated that a further dollar strength , The impact on the rail line Brin resistance on the request. This week, the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar's initial resistance at 1.0215-1.0255 area, strong resistance at around 1.0320; initial support at 1.0150-1.0140 area, strong support at around 1.0100.
Australian dollar: The MACD indicators on the line in the Sicha 0 axis divergence downlink, this week will be close to 0 reel, line, RSI indicator dropped to 30 following the disadvantaged regions, a further sign of low, the line Brin Rail operating openings are the embryonic form, the Australian dollar this week will show that the overall Tandi seek further support. This week, the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar initial resistance at 0.9585-0.9605 area, strong resistance at 0.9630-0.9640 area; initial support at around 0.9520, strong support at 0.9480-0.9455 area.
Dollar down because of credit concerns
Dollar fell Monday due to the financial industry on the U.S. economy continued to concern the health status of Mengyin, limits the Federal Reserve raising interest rates before the end of this year's ability. Bloomberg News reported that Merrill Lynch analysts expect the fourth-largest U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers reported a third quarter loss of material, and may again write down 2.5 billion U.S. dollars of assets related to housing loans. Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch expected the third quarter expected a loss of 1.59 U.S. dollars, and Lehman target price from 28 dollars down to 25 U.S. dollars. This has deepened investors in the U.S. financial industry concerns, a drag U.S. stocks and the dollar fell one of the factors. In addition, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Stern published in the Financial Times in an interview that the next 2-3 quarter economic growth may be disappointing. His remarks show a deterioration in credit crisis FED that the inflation increase even more sure that inflation is moderate tone, the dollar negative sentiment increased. Investors are waiting for data later this week a series of the latest market transactions that provide more guidance, including the United States Thursday of the second quarter gross domestic product (GDP), Friday's U.S. payrolls report. On the map, the number of MA muster, short-term view that the United States still under pressure. Today is expected to support at 72.40, with resistance at 72.80.
The euro against the dollar yesterday ended up. Germany announced yesterday the Gfk Consumer Confidence Index fell movements did not affect the euro. DailyFX.com senior currency strategist Boris Schlossberg said, although in the past few days, the euro area is more negative data, the euro accident holding positions, mainly because the market is very worried about the U.S. financial system of systemic risks. But on the other hand, the weak data so that the hasty follow-up to euro bulls. On the map, the exchange rate of re-running the 100-day moving average, and mitigate the decline in the early, more short-term oscillation interval, the initial resistance near the 20-day MA. Today is expected to support at 1.5700, with resistance at 1.5790.
British pound against the dollar yesterday rose oscillation. Because after the British domestic real estate advisory body Hometrack published data showed that British house prices in July for the first 10 months decreased, the British pound fell, but all of the U.S. dollar weakened, making sterling back before the decline. Today morning, sterling against the dollar yesterday closed in the vicinity of consolidation, with technical indicators, continue today in 20-day MA near the possibility of oscillation, is expected to support at 1.9870, with resistance at 1.9980.
Stocks fell by the impact of the dollar against the yen yesterday dropped from a high level, slightly down. Today, there are likely to continue to decline near the 200-day MA, is expected to support at 106.70, with resistance at 107.60.
Other currencies price forecast:
The Australian dollar :0.9530-0.9620; :1.0280-dollar CHF 1.0350; USDCAD :1.0170-1.0230
Today:
16:30 June consumer credit
16:30 Germany in July Consumer Price Index initial value
21:00 U.S. May S & P / Case-shiller price changes
22:00 U.S. economy of the Chamber of Commerce June consumer confidence index
The euro against the dollar yesterday ended up. Germany announced yesterday the Gfk Consumer Confidence Index fell movements did not affect the euro. DailyFX.com senior currency strategist Boris Schlossberg said, although in the past few days, the euro area is more negative data, the euro accident holding positions, mainly because the market is very worried about the U.S. financial system of systemic risks. But on the other hand, the weak data so that the hasty follow-up to euro bulls. On the map, the exchange rate of re-running the 100-day moving average, and mitigate the decline in the early, more short-term oscillation interval, the initial resistance near the 20-day MA. Today is expected to support at 1.5700, with resistance at 1.5790.
British pound against the dollar yesterday rose oscillation. Because after the British domestic real estate advisory body Hometrack published data showed that British house prices in July for the first 10 months decreased, the British pound fell, but all of the U.S. dollar weakened, making sterling back before the decline. Today morning, sterling against the dollar yesterday closed in the vicinity of consolidation, with technical indicators, continue today in 20-day MA near the possibility of oscillation, is expected to support at 1.9870, with resistance at 1.9980.
Stocks fell by the impact of the dollar against the yen yesterday dropped from a high level, slightly down. Today, there are likely to continue to decline near the 200-day MA, is expected to support at 106.70, with resistance at 107.60.
Other currencies price forecast:
The Australian dollar :0.9530-0.9620; :1.0280-dollar CHF 1.0350; USDCAD :1.0170-1.0230
Today:
16:30 June consumer credit
16:30 Germany in July Consumer Price Index initial value
21:00 U.S. May S & P / Case-shiller price changes
22:00 U.S. economy of the Chamber of Commerce June consumer confidence index
European stock markets lower automobile and commodity stocks down
The auto sector and the sharp decline in commodity stocks drag, European stock markets ended lower on the 24th, the European Stockton 600 index fell 1.6 percent to 282.2 points.
Comprehensive foreign July 24, European stock markets ended lower on the 24th, taking on the 23rd of the majority or, as DaimlerChrysler and Renault to reduce full-year outlook, dragging the auto stocks, and weaker commodity drag down Oil stocks and mining stocks.
In addition, the United Kingdom and the continuous deterioration of the euro zone's economic prospects also drag on the index.
British retail sales in June of the Year 1986 data compiled since the biggest monthly drop. Investec economist David Page said the data highlighted the instability of the British economy. He said, Investec think that the British economy is in the brink of recession.
German Institute for Economic Research (Ifo Institute) 24日announced earlier, the business climate index fell for the fourth consecutive month. The report shows that the strong euro and high oil prices to the German economy the negative impact.
European Stockton 600 index fell 1.6 percent to 282.2 points. Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 1.6 percent to 5,362.3 points. France's CAC 40 Index fell 1.4 percent to 4,348.0 points. The German DAX 30 index fell 1.5 percent to 6,440.7 points.
DaimlerChrysler Corporation (Daimler AG) Stockton is the European 600 index showed the largest decline in stocks, the company issued before the whole financial year profit warning, because raw materials such as steel and oil prices rose and the euro rose against the dollar. Despite its anticipated revenue growth will be moderate and car sales will increase, but DaimlerChrysler eventually closed down 9.6 percent to 38.5 euros.
DaimlerChrysler news drag down other auto stocks, Renault (Renault) fell 3.4 percent to 55.9 euros; VW (Volkswagen) fell by 2.8 percent to 203.8 euros.
Mineral and petroleum product stocks on the 24th were the former, Britain's FTSE 100 index heavy pressure. Royal Dutch Shell Co., Ltd. (Royal Dutch Shell) fell 2.0 percent to 1790 pence.
Comprehensive foreign July 24, European stock markets ended lower on the 24th, taking on the 23rd of the majority or, as DaimlerChrysler and Renault to reduce full-year outlook, dragging the auto stocks, and weaker commodity drag down Oil stocks and mining stocks.
In addition, the United Kingdom and the continuous deterioration of the euro zone's economic prospects also drag on the index.
British retail sales in June of the Year 1986 data compiled since the biggest monthly drop. Investec economist David Page said the data highlighted the instability of the British economy. He said, Investec think that the British economy is in the brink of recession.
German Institute for Economic Research (Ifo Institute) 24日announced earlier, the business climate index fell for the fourth consecutive month. The report shows that the strong euro and high oil prices to the German economy the negative impact.
European Stockton 600 index fell 1.6 percent to 282.2 points. Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 1.6 percent to 5,362.3 points. France's CAC 40 Index fell 1.4 percent to 4,348.0 points. The German DAX 30 index fell 1.5 percent to 6,440.7 points.
DaimlerChrysler Corporation (Daimler AG) Stockton is the European 600 index showed the largest decline in stocks, the company issued before the whole financial year profit warning, because raw materials such as steel and oil prices rose and the euro rose against the dollar. Despite its anticipated revenue growth will be moderate and car sales will increase, but DaimlerChrysler eventually closed down 9.6 percent to 38.5 euros.
DaimlerChrysler news drag down other auto stocks, Renault (Renault) fell 3.4 percent to 55.9 euros; VW (Volkswagen) fell by 2.8 percent to 203.8 euros.
Mineral and petroleum product stocks on the 24th were the former, Britain's FTSE 100 index heavy pressure. Royal Dutch Shell Co., Ltd. (Royal Dutch Shell) fell 2.0 percent to 1790 pence.
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