Comments last week:
Last week, if the U.S. House of Representatives adopted the "two U.S." rescue the draft law; U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson and the U.S. Philadelphia Fed president of expression; some U.S. economic data the better-than-expected performance of the accident, which is lifted and pushed the dollar The reasons for the rebound, then the European economy has shown weakness, the European currency led a comprehensive, may be more comprehensive strong dollar is the achievement of the main reasons.
The dollar index last week to 72.19 after the open, showing slightly after the strong rebound Tandi Chonggao trend. The week before was lowered to 71.74 support, followed by a strong rebound, up to 73.02 after the weekend in 72.60 at the top of a concussion, the ultimate end of the week to 72.82 transactions. Line-up for a 63 point entities in Yangxian, root for a second straight week Yangxian, and line-up entities have expanded.
Last week, the impact of currency market evolution of the main factors are:
1, the European economy into stagflation, the European monetary system long retreat.
While the European Central Bank to continue to hard-line position of high concern about the euro zone inflation of the situation, released last week, Germany and the euro zone economic data showed that euro zone economy may have caught the stagflation of the situation.
The relevant market survey shows that in early 2008 for euro zone economic growth to provide assistance of the German economy in the second quarter of contraction, the market is expected that this Europe's largest economy
, second quarter GDP will shrink 0.4 percent. German Finance Ministry on Monday also said that Germany's second-quarter GDP shrinking significantly, but the German economy this year will shrink to complete standstill. Western developed countries in general to GDP recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarterly decline.
Although the current market expectations of Germany and the euro zone economy may not be a recession, that is, two consecutive quarterly decline, or that negative growth, but Germany and the euro zone poor start in the third quarter, the economy, it is revealed last week by the reality of data. July German Ifo business sentiment index for the judgement of 97.5, well below the forecast of 100.0 that investors in the German economic confidence in the prospects of serious decay. German July manufacturing purchasing managers index for the initial 50.9, well below the forecast of 52.0 for August 2005 has been the weakest, close to the edge shrinking; Eurozone July manufacturing purchasing managers index for the initial 47.5, Forecast for 48.7, in June 2003 to the lowest level of the euro zone in July services sector purchasing managers index for the initial 48.3, lower than expected, in June 2003 for the lowest euro-zone in July integrated Purchasing Managers Index The initial value of 47.8 for November 2001 the lowest, are the second consecutive month, a contraction. Eurozone third quarter showed that the economic situation is not optimistic.
If the euro zone economy into recession, on the one hand may shake the European Central Bank adhere to the hardline stance of self-confidence, the other hand, it could trigger political level the ECB's hardline stance even greater challenge. Germany's IFO senior analyst Nabo had said that the European Central Bank need to take measures to reduce inflationary pressures.
Eurozone May unadjusted current account deficit widened to 21.4 billion euros, seasonally adjusted current account in deficit of 7.3 billion euros, reflecting strong euro on the euro zone balance of payments has had problems. Eurozone June M3 money supply annual growth rate of 9.5 percent, lower than expected by 10.3 percent, reflecting interest rate increase and the economic slowdown in corporate demand for credit has slowed down, they also may prompt the European Central Bank re-examine its hardline policy Position.
In addition, the United Kingdom and Switzerland from the data, can also prove the European economy as a whole show of weakness. For example, the United Kingdom in June retail sales decreased 3.9 percent the previous month, in January 1986 for the preparation of the biggest monthly drop since the data, although the British second quarter GDP growth than the 0.2 percent the previous quarter, the continuation of growth momentum, but the market expected the next few quarters will be Contraction; Switzerland in June to reduce exports in real terms of 3.5%, reflecting the European countries do not Mong domestic demand, because the five major economies in the euro zone is Switzerland's main exporters.
The economy into stagflation bound to affect the major European central bank's interest rate decision-making, so the EU have a negative impact of currency, the European currency strength has long dissipated, for example, the Chicago International Monetary Market (IMM) foreign exchange speculators holding the euro Dollar net long positions, from July 15 when weeks of net long 23,049 hand, and substantial reductions in the 4,071 last week to hand.
Of course, the British pound in the last European currency in the performance of the relatively strong side, last week the Bank of England's July meeting records are given the Notes. Bank of England's nine member monetary policy in July on one of the requirements of a rate cut, one that raising interest rates, and the remaining seven people decided to leave rates unchanged, comments one-third pound rate cut is expected to temporarily improved.
2, save "the two U.S." initial bill, dollar bulls confidence doubled.
In addition to the full European currency rebounded from last week, U.S. dollar against other currencies is also Africa and the United States all rose, indicating the dollar's driving force, or by their own fundamentals of the support and encouragement.
Last week, the nation's largest retail banks - Bank of America announced quarterly earnings decreased 41 percent to 3.41 billion U.S. dollars, for the fourth consecutive quarter of decline in the United States to issue credit cards with high-end American Express said the bank announced quarterly earnings dropped to 653 million U.S. dollars, showed that high-end customers of credit card debt default still rising; fourth largest U.S. banks - Wachovia's second quarterly loss for 8.86 billion U.S. dollars, the largest U.S. savings and loan banks - Bank of China each other for the second quarterly loss 3.33 billion U.S. dollars. These giant's poor performance on Wall Street although the market as early as expected, but the United States coincides with the market concerned about how the rescue, "Fannie Mae" and "U.S. mortgage", therefore, the market or on Wall Street rather precarious Worried that this degree against dollar sentiment.
However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last week published the week of the 19 Wall Street for a stock market dealer "naked short selling" to restrict the power of the U.S. short. More importantly, the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday adopted the "Fannie Mae" and "premises of the United States," the rescue plan, although the package in the White House are not satisfied with the content, but U.S. President George W. Bush has said it would sign the bill . Thus, the market is worried about the "Fannie Mae" and "premises of the United States" crisis of the storm eyes, it is very hard for Wall Street set off a new crisis, therefore, enhance confidence in the dollar longs.
Moreover, U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson and the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Puluo Se president of the remarks made against the U.S. dollar also formed a bullish sentiment encouraged.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson said that the United States is about to usher in the property market may turn for the better, in the next few months has started to recover, but to solve all the problems related to the property market may need more time. Paulson reiterated its support for a strong dollar, said a strong dollar is very important. It should be noted that, whether Bush or Paulson, recently talked about a strong dollar exchange rate is not mentioned by the market to determine the wording of this delicate change in the wording indicates the United States reserved the room for intervention in the market. Of the strong dollar's remarks on oil price pullback has played a catalytic role.
U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Pu Luose said last week that even if the job market and the financial markets have not yet recovered, rising inflation may force the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates. He believes that if maintained for too long, too loose monetary policy, will add to inflation. In 2004, under the Greenspan-led Fed, is to be fully recovered after the employment market, the dollar started the benchmark rate from 1 percent of the low gradually improve, then the low level of inflation because the United States, to postpone raising interest rates will not lead to inflation问题. At present, however, the United States is also in the shadow of high inflation, if waiting for the job market recovery began raising interest rates, that inflation may deteriorated. Therefore, the U.S. Fed officials are worried about the inflation situation. Rate hike will curb U.S. dollars for crude oil and commodity speculation.
Further data showed the U.S. economy compared with the European economy, the second quarter may be in the situation of comparative advantage, which means that the U.S. economic cycle ahead of the European economy, the future may go faster if the road to recovery.
Last Friday, the United States announced in June durable goods orders rose 0.8 percent, far better-than-expected 0.5 percent decrease; July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index value of 61.2, rebounded to a four month high point, Shows that the stock market rebounded and oil prices fall in U.S. consumer confidence has become more optimistic.
3, global stock market turbulence higher, yen bulls wavering.
Japan June core inflation rate rose to 10-year high, the core consumer price index rose 1.9 percent, mainly by the continued rise in energy costs pushed up, which showed that Japan's economy still can not determine whether out of a state of deflation, Also likely to fall into stagflation on the situation. This is because Japan's June exports fell from a year earlier accident, for the first time in the past five years, reflecting the global economy cooling down simultaneously, has affected Japan's external demand weakened.
Bank of Japan Shirakawa Fang-ming said that the tight monetary policy in response to rising raw material costs is not appropriate, and the central bank on inflation and downside risks equally concerned about the economy; member of the Bank of Japan to consider water Atsushi said that the downside risks to the economy have a high degree of concern about inflation. This shows that although inflationary pressures heating up, but the recent Bank of Japan will not affect the decision to leave interest rates unchanged. It is clear that Japan's domestic factors still affecting the yen is not the main reason for the trend.
Therefore, the yen remains bullish Wall Street and walk the movements of Japanese stocks advance and retreat, on-yen last week lowered, the stock market entirely subject to the rhythm.
4, oil, gold continued pullback, the value of the currency longs up empty.
A stronger dollar, oil prices continued to pullback and promote gold and commodity prices adjusted for the final has finally spread to the commodity currencies of Australia and Canada.
Of course, the Australian dollar Shenfutiaozheng, there are fundamental factors. Data show that in Australia the second quarter producer price index (PPI) over the previous quarter growth of 1.0 percent, up 4.7 percent, lower than the expected growth of 1.6% and 5.3% in the second quarter consumer price index (CPI ) Over the previous quarter growth of 1.5 percent, up 4.5 percent, higher than the expected increase of 1.2 percent and 4.3 percent. Although a record annual rate of inflation since 2001, the highest level, but the market is not that large Chu Ge, the Reserve Bank of Australia will not be prompted further interest rate increase. For example, the current interest rate futures markets reflected the trend, the Australian central bank lowered interest rates next year, the probability of about 50 percent, more than the inflation data released last week before the 30 percent, has been enhanced, show the market that the central bank to raise interest rates pre - Adequate action to curb inflation, lower economic growth.
In addition, the assets of Australia's largest bank National Australia Bank announced that it has further Provision of 8.3 billion Australian dollars (about 798 million U.S. dollars) and the United States, the provision for loan-to-related losses, the market is worried that the Australian banking industry may There's more of the loan-to-related losses.
Canada May retail sales increased less than expected, only 0.4 percent growth the previous month, is expected to grow 0.6 percent, which is the Canadian dollar weakness led to a negative factor.
Last week the market:
*** Currency trading week opened a week maximum ** ** ** week minimum closed the week up or weeks ***
The dollar index 72.19 73.02 71.74 72.86 +67 points
Euro / dollar 1.5836 1.5944 1.5627 1.5703 -133 points
Sterling / dollar 1.9958 2.0075 1.9814 1.9911 -47 points
Dollar / Swiss franc 1.0225 1.0406 1.0134 1.0366 +141 points
Dollar / yen 106.92 107.98 106.03 107.81 +89 points
Aussie / dollar 0.9719 0.9792 0.9536 0.9555 -164 points
Dollar / Canadian dollar 1.0062 1.0205 0.9988 1.0191 +129 points
Spot gold 955.25 975.95 915.80 928.70 -26.55 dollars
Crude oil futures 128.88 132.07 122.50 123.43 -5.45 dollars
Should pay attention to fundamentals this week and the following information: (focus on the band **)
United States:
Tuesday, 00:30 ** Fed Governor Mishkin made a speech
Tuesday, 21:00 U.S. May Standard & Poor's / Case-shiller price changes
Tuesday, 22:00 ** U.S. June consumer confidence index
Wednesday, 20:15 ** United States in July ADP private sector employment population changes
Thursday, 20:30 ** U.S. second-quarter preliminary GDP
Thursday, 21:45 ** U.S. July Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
Friday, 20:30 ** U.S. July employment report
Friday, 22:00 ** U.S. Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index in July
Friday, 22:00 U.S. May construction spending
Euro area:
Monday, 14:00 Germany in August Gfk Consumer Confidence Index
Tuesday, 16:30 ** Germany in July Consumer Price Index initial value
Wednesday, 17:00 ** euro zone business climate index in July
Thursday, July unemployment rate in Germany 16:00
Thursday, 17:00 ** Eurozone July consumer price index to reconcile the initial value
Thursday, June unemployment rate in the euro zone 17:00
Friday, 15:55 ** Germany in July manufacturing PMI index final
Friday, 16:00 ** Eurozone July manufacturing PMI index final
United Kingdom:
Tuesday, 16:30 June consumer credit
Thursday, 14:00 ** British Nationwide house prices in July
Friday, 7:01 Britain in July Gfk Consumer Confidence
Friday, 16:30 ** United Kingdom in July manufacturing PMI index
Japan:
Tuesday, 07:30 Japan's unemployment rate in June
Tuesday, 07:30 Japan's household spending in June all
Tuesday, 7:50 ** Japan June retail sales
Wednesday, 07:50 ** Japan's industrial production in June
Thursday, 07:15 ** Japan's July manufacturing PMI index
Thursday, 09:30 Japan in June overtime pay
Thursday, 13:00 Japan June housing starts and construction orders
Other aspects:
Tuesday, 09:30 ** National Australia Bank (NAB) business survey situation in the second quarter
Wednesday, 09:30 Australia in June building permits
Wednesday, 17:30 ** Switzerland in July KOF leading indicator
Wednesday, 20:30 Canada in June producer price index
Thursday, 09:30 ** Australia in June and the second quarter retail sales
Thursday, 09:30 ** Australia in June the international balance of trade
Thursday, 16:45 ** Switzerland in July Consumer Price Index
Thursday, 20:30 ** Canada May GDP
Outlook this week:
Oil prices, U.S. dollar, recently formed a series of three-ring sets, interrelated, Central, Central closely. The foreign exchange market participants, put oil prices and Wall Street focused on the eyes, when oil prices fell and U.S. stocks rose, do more confidence in the dollar will strengthen the other hand, would choose to go short dollars. The stock market participants, is also the focus in the price of oil above the drop in oil prices seems to be a rising stock market rebound or the necessary conditions. So, oil prices seem to have become in this series sets a key element. In fact, the U.S. dollar or the U.S. can not also play a key role too? » Sharp oil price speculation was, of course, have long-term imbalance between supply and demand at work, the current rapid decline, it was explained as a global economic slowdown, making short-term imbalance between supply and demand may mitigate or reverse. However, if we stand in the perspective of market speculation, skyrocketing oil prices, should be interpreted as the U.S. and global stock markets go bears, no floating capital investment direction, thereby squeeze in the oil market, and it not weak dollar, the choice of floating capital The oil market hedge.
So, if the future gradually stronger dollar, U.S. stocks edge upwards, how can the oil-leading position. Therefore, the U.S. authorities stressed that the current strength of the value of the dollar, which is not like before, the false statement. At present, the more porous the U.S. financial system, in trouble, the U.S. authorities stressed that a strong dollar will become. Because if the laissez-faire dollar fell disorder, the United States may be a disaster. The future, when the Wall Street weathered the crisis, perhaps the U.S. authorities will also focus to the trade deficit, the resumption of the dollar's depreciation trend. This is perhaps viewed dollars dialectics.
At present, oil prices and Wall Street trends, can indeed affect the dollar as the key factor. U.S. financial giant's two main basic issue has been disclosed, the Wall Street of an impact this has been basically completed, subject to restrictions "naked short selling" under the impact of short-term decline in U.S. stocks the possibility of a large scale has not. But Wall Street's problems, not far from the end of the year to September to October, perhaps the news will be violence. This is because the Fed revealed last week, Wall Street traders on the Fed a 25 billion U.S. dollars through securities borrowing and lending of tools (TSLF) provided by the Ministry of Finance Securities tender for the 2.07 multiplier, that is 51.72 billion U.S. dollars, a dealer show that the capital flows And there is still the problem. Moreover, the U.S. banking industry through the discount window last week directly from the Fed's basic access to credit (primary credit) increased to a record high, showed that the U.S. banking industry increasingly need to rely on the Fed to provide low-cost financing, to improve operating profits.
Prior periods have been talking about that August is the Western countries in the main summer holiday, regardless of the oil market, the stock market or the main market participants are likely to leave leave the closed position敞口, lock profitable, so that when the Six months or a trend of the last three months of market prices, at the approach of August before the market is likely due to profit-taking and reversal. The recent decline in oil prices and Wall Street rebound, we can all make such understanding. So, after entering August, the market may show disorder shocks, fluctuations in the retail market characteristics, namely, oil prices or U.S. stocks on the market's influence, may be temporarily weakened.
If so, the market may re-focus attention to the prospects of rate hikes dollars clues. Although the recent U.S. Fed officials have the right to vote on most of the more hard-line remarks that the dollar needs as soon as possible interest rate increase, but by the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, deputy chairman and directors of the core components of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates as early as possible whether or not agree with the view, Also need to observe. This week, Fed Governor Mishkin's speech, the Fed may be able to reveal the core level position.
Of course, if the market entry and disorderly fluctuations in the pattern, then the influence of performance data will increase, announced this week coincides with the U.S. July employment report, the current employment market is the United States in the field of economic weaknesses, so unless there accident General employment report will have a negative impact on the dollar as a possibility. The market expected U.S. July unemployment rate will be increased further to 5.6 percent, non-farm payrolls will be reduced by 65,000 people last month, is to reduce 62,000 people. In addition, the observation of the United States in July for Supply Management's manufacturing index's performance, the control of similar indicators in Europe, the United States can reveal whether the current economic situation but slightly better in Europe, the strength of the dollar Duokong the growth and decline, there will be more important impact. In short, this week in the data, the dollar should remain cautious. But the U.S. market at present the second quarter GDP performance is more optimistic about the expected growth will be faster than the first quarter, to 1.9 percent growth in the first quarter, growth was 1.0 percent. The end of last year, the beginning of this year, including Alan Greenspan, the United States are expected to be the first half of the economy into recession, but the actual growth rate is accelerating Zhuji, This is ironic that the Man You.
In Africa and the United States monetary data, this week there are so few of Aspect. One is the German and euro zone inflation indicators in July, the euro zone is expected July inflation rate will further increase to 4.2 percent, may exacerbate the ECB's hardline stance, but it can also make the market more worried about the euro zone economy into stagflation dilemma. The second is the United Kingdom in July manufacturing PMI index, the manufacturing sector in the euro zone in July the second consecutive month of decline, it is expected that the British manufacturing sector conditions in July will also be difficult to optimistic performance. Third, the Australian second-quarter economic situation of enterprises and the second quarter retail sales performance, is expected to reflect the Australian central bank to raise interest rates so that economic initiatives already in the process of cooling down. Fourth, in Canada in May GDP, Canada last week in May retail sales weaker than expected performance of the accident, to Canada in May cast the GDP performance variables, the market is expected to grow by 0.2 percent, lower than April's 0.4 percent growth.
Technical analysis:
The dollar index: At present, the line MACD indicators in the bottom of a shaft 0 on 0-axis signs of wear, and the line continued to produce positive column, line, 70 more than in the RSI indicator of the strength of regional operation, the rail line Brin are on track Alice signs that this week the U.S. dollar will continue the pattern of strong rebound. This week, the dollar index's initial resistance at 73.10-73.20 area, strong resistance at around 73.40, 73.80 storm did not rule out the possibility of initial support at around 72.75, strong support at 72.55-72.45 area.
The euro against the U.S. dollar: At present, the line MACD indicators in the Sicha 0 axis downlink, this week will be the next to wear 0 reel, line, RSI indicators in 30 regional hovering near the weak, again dropped to below 30 may be vulnerable region , Brin on track under the rail line to start the dumping, the euro this week showed that support will be further lowered the possibility of too large. This week, the euro against the dollar initial resistance at 1.5710-1.5730 area, strong resistance at around 1.5780; initial support at 1.5620-1.5600 area, strong support at around 1.5560.
British pound against the U.S. dollar: At present, the line MACD indicators in the Sicha 0 axis divergence downlink, RSI on the line in the 50-30 regional swing indicators, a further drop to 30 following the signs, walk-track line Brin, indicates this week British pound adjustment trend will continue, and further lowered to the rail line under the support of Brin. This week, the British pound against the U.S. dollar initial resistance at 1.9920-1.9940 area, strong resistance at 1.9965-1.9995 area; initial support at 1.9805-1.9785 area, strong support at 1.9740-1.9710 area.
USDCHF: Currently, the lines on the MACD indicators have been wearing Jincha 0 reel, line, 70 more than in the RSI indicator of the strength of regional operation, Brin line on the track early in the opening run, indicates this week will further weaken the Swiss franc. This week, the U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc the initial support at around 1.0350, strong support at 1.0310-1.0270 area; initial resistance at 1.0420-1.0440 area, strong resistance at around 1.0520.
USDJPY: At present, the line MACD indicators in the emerging Jincha 0 axis, the line on the RSI indicator in the vicinity of 70 swing, re-entered 70 more signs of strong regional and Brin on track in opening line running prototype that The yen to weaken further the risk of looking for support. This week, the U.S. dollar against the yen in the initial support at around 107.50-107.10, strong support at around 106.80-106.60; initial resistance at around 108.40, strong resistance at 108.85-109.25 area.
USDCAD: Currently, the lines on the MACD indicators Jincha wear 0 reel, line, enter the RSI indicator of the strength of more than 70 regional, in a passive posture run, on-track follow-Brin, this week indicated that a further dollar strength , The impact on the rail line Brin resistance on the request. This week, the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar's initial resistance at 1.0215-1.0255 area, strong resistance at around 1.0320; initial support at 1.0150-1.0140 area, strong support at around 1.0100.
Australian dollar: The MACD indicators on the line in the Sicha 0 axis divergence downlink, this week will be close to 0 reel
, line, RSI indicator dropped to 30 following the disadvantaged regions, a further sign of low, the line Brin Rail operating openings are the embryonic form, the Australian dollar this week will show that the overall Tandi seek further support. This week, the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar initial resistance at 0.9585-0.9605 area, strong resistance at 0.9630-0.9640 area; initial support at around 0.9520, strong support at 0.9480-0.9455 area.
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