Source: New People's Daily
Last Monday, the gold price shocks high of 979 U.S. dollars after the failed "high platform diving", after the decline, falling as low as 915 U.S. dollars, the current stable in the vicinity of 929 U.S. dollars. Fed officials pay close attention to the problem of inflation, short-term U.S. economic data turn for the better, the international oil prices fall, gold prices are declining triggered an important reason.
Earlier this week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson reiterated that "strong dollar" policy, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank president also delivered a Puluo Se will speed up the rate hikes to curb inflation remarks. Officials of the hard-line speech boosted the dollar, suppressing the price of oil, curbing gold's gains.
Second, the United States issued a series of economic data to consolidate the status of the dollar also hurt gold prices. For example, in terms of investment, the U.S. June durable goods orders increased by 0.8 percent, since last December, the biggest increase consumption, the United States in July the University of Michigan's final consumer confidence index reached 61.2, 6 than the end of a substantial increase in value of 56.4 ; Real estate market, new home sales in June to 530,000, higher than the forecast of 500,000 new home sales.
In addition, the U.S. government started to pay attention to issues of oil speculation, such as the drafting of bills related to the U.S. Congress, inhibit investors and speculators in the New York Mercantile Exchange energy futures market, and with Britain and other regulatory agencies in the fight against international energy futures market The wave of speculation. This very short period of time, oil prices from a high of 147 U.S. dollars fallen sharply. Oil prices fall, triggered the related investment in the commodity markets at low tide, the price of gold down the reasonable.
From graphics, the gold from New York was started Tuesday by the continuous pressure, just a few trading days will be below the 955 U.S. dollars, 943 U.S. dollars, 933 U.S. dollars several important support level. Currently, gold once again came to the 120-day MA near, I believe that in this location will be started "to defend the multi-war", and resolutely safeguard the dignity of longs. Technically, gold has been the rise from approaching the next track, and also by the week since the end of March since the formation of the support of the double bottom neckline, short-term, a strong rebound in demand. From the week online, last week's Yinxian can be seen as the neckline of a Huichou confirmed, the next two weeks compared certainty is that gold remains strong shocks inevitable, but as long as gold is no longer Further record lows, then the gold rally will not end. Recommended investors in the 916 to 920 U.S. dollars regional firm to do more, short-term goals-against 940 U.S. dollars. (Zhang ICBC Shanghai Branch)
2008-07-30
Asian foreign exchange market conditions Courier
Financial news and important data:
Japan's Nikkei stock average than the previous day's closing index closed down 1.46 percent.
16:30 Hong Kong time in the United Kingdom announced in June consumer credit, the market forecast is 1.1 billion pounds.
22:00 Hong Kong time in the United States announced in July consumer confidence index, the market forecast is 50.0.
Technical indicators and trend forecast:
Currency volatility forecast tonight in support of resistance
Major currencies:
The dollar was 106.80-108.20 106.58,107.00 108.08,108.50
Euro-dollar 1.5700-1.5820 1.5658,1.5700 1.5798,1.5850
British pound against the dollar 1.9880-2.0000 1.9861,1.9900 2.0000,2.0038
USDCHF 1.0280-1.0390 1.0259,1.0292 1.0390,1.0409
The Australian dollar 0.9520-0.9630 0.9503,0.9515 0.9614,0.9637
New yuan-dollar 0.7370-0.7480 0.7350,0.7367 0.7483,0.7500
USDCAD 1.0150-1.0280 1.0140,1.0180 1.0280,1.0300
Cross Currency:
The euro against the yen 168.80-170.00 168.55,168.80 169.97,170.35
The euro against the pound sterling 0.7850-0.7950 0.7820,0.7850 0.7933,0.7960
Euro against the Swiss franc 1.6230-1.6320 1.6210,1.6225 1.6312,1.6343
Australian dollar against the yen 102.40-103.60 102.10,102.40 103.45,103.70
Asian foreign exchange markets:
The Australian dollar, the initial performance of Kraft today on steady, the current 10 days, 20 days and 50-day moving average prices are 0.9655,0.9642 and 0.9577,9 hovering in the 32-day RSI level.
U.S. dollar against the yen, today's preliminary performance rebounded slightly, the current 10 days, 20 days and 50-day moving average prices are 107.01,106.75 and 106.37,9 in 57 days RSI level.
Euro against the U.S. dollar, today's preliminary to the good performance of cowhide, the current 10 days, 20 days and 50-day moving average prices are 1.5780,1.5788 and 1.5678,9 rose to 47-day RSI level.
British pound against the dollar, the initial volatility upward today, the latest in a level close to the current 10 days, 20 days and 50-day moving average prices are 1.9955,1.9904 and 1.9788,9 to 53 days RSI level.
Comprehensive Assessment: U.S. regulatory authorities last Friday took over the two small U.S. banks and U.S. financial institutions yesterday, "Merrill Lynch" expects third-quarter pre-tax asset write-down of about 5.7 billion U.S. dollars, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson and the four U.S. bank yesterday said it would arrange for an official game market investment products to support housing finance, but the market is lukewarm initial response, prompted investors to worry that the U.S. financial enterprises continue to expand the amount of losses will further damage the U.S. economy and lead the Federal Reserve later this year Difficult to raising interest rates, the dollar thus encountered pressure, the United States the previous day's weighted index fell overall performance. In the absence of major news this stimulus, the weighted index in the United States and the Asia-Pacific cities with narrow range of performance. Investors are waiting for later today the S & P / Case Shiller report on housing prices, the U.S. economy and the Chamber of Commerce announced in July consumer confidence index to determine whether the U.S. economic situation., Another focus of the market is the United States later this week Released by the second quarter preliminary gross domestic product, July non-farm jobs, as well as crude oil prices and the U.S. Congress passed the Government will include infrastructure spending, a new programme to stimulate the economy.
Japan's Nikkei stock average than the previous day's closing index closed down 1.46 percent.
16:30 Hong Kong time in the United Kingdom announced in June consumer credit, the market forecast is 1.1 billion pounds.
22:00 Hong Kong time in the United States announced in July consumer confidence index, the market forecast is 50.0.
Technical indicators and trend forecast:
Currency volatility forecast tonight in support of resistance
Major currencies:
The dollar was 106.80-108.20 106.58,107.00 108.08,108.50
Euro-dollar 1.5700-1.5820 1.5658,1.5700 1.5798,1.5850
British pound against the dollar 1.9880-2.0000 1.9861,1.9900 2.0000,2.0038
USDCHF 1.0280-1.0390 1.0259,1.0292 1.0390,1.0409
The Australian dollar 0.9520-0.9630 0.9503,0.9515 0.9614,0.9637
New yuan-dollar 0.7370-0.7480 0.7350,0.7367 0.7483,0.7500
USDCAD 1.0150-1.0280 1.0140,1.0180 1.0280,1.0300
Cross Currency:
The euro against the yen 168.80-170.00 168.55,168.80 169.97,170.35
The euro against the pound sterling 0.7850-0.7950 0.7820,0.7850 0.7933,0.7960
Euro against the Swiss franc 1.6230-1.6320 1.6210,1.6225 1.6312,1.6343
Australian dollar against the yen 102.40-103.60 102.10,102.40 103.45,103.70
Asian foreign exchange markets:
The Australian dollar, the initial performance of Kraft today on steady, the current 10 days, 20 days and 50-day moving average prices are 0.9655,0.9642 and 0.9577,9 hovering in the 32-day RSI level.
U.S. dollar against the yen, today's preliminary performance rebounded slightly, the current 10 days, 20 days and 50-day moving average prices are 107.01,106.75 and 106.37,9 in 57 days RSI level.
Euro against the U.S. dollar, today's preliminary to the good performance of cowhide, the current 10 days, 20 days and 50-day moving average prices are 1.5780,1.5788 and 1.5678,9 rose to 47-day RSI level.
British pound against the dollar, the initial volatility upward today, the latest in a level close to the current 10 days, 20 days and 50-day moving average prices are 1.9955,1.9904 and 1.9788,9 to 53 days RSI level.
Comprehensive Assessment: U.S. regulatory authorities last Friday took over the two small U.S. banks and U.S. financial institutions yesterday, "Merrill Lynch" expects third-quarter pre-tax asset write-down of about 5.7 billion U.S. dollars, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson and the four U.S. bank yesterday said it would arrange for an official game market investment products to support housing finance, but the market is lukewarm initial response, prompted investors to worry that the U.S. financial enterprises continue to expand the amount of losses will further damage the U.S. economy and lead the Federal Reserve later this year Difficult to raising interest rates, the dollar thus encountered pressure, the United States the previous day's weighted index fell overall performance. In the absence of major news this stimulus, the weighted index in the United States and the Asia-Pacific cities with narrow range of performance. Investors are waiting for later today the S & P / Case Shiller report on housing prices, the U.S. economy and the Chamber of Commerce announced in July consumer confidence index to determine whether the U.S. economic situation., Another focus of the market is the United States later this week Released by the second quarter preliminary gross domestic product, July non-farm jobs, as well as crude oil prices and the U.S. Congress passed the Government will include infrastructure spending, a new programme to stimulate the economy.
The euro short-term downward trend has not changed
[Yesterday recalled]
The dollar's overall trend is up after the first down. ADP released by the United States as unexpectedly strong employment report for the dollar bulls continued to strike back created an opportunity, once again pushed the dollar rose to 73.54. ADP employment report showed that U.S. July employment increased 9,000 accidents, far better than the expected reduction of 50,000.
And yesterday's sharp rebound in crude oil prices, but to stop the dollar's rising pace. The highest technical rebound in oil prices rebounded to above 127 U.S. dollars, such a rebound can continue to maintain, but also need to wait and see, generally eight or nine months a year in oil prices tend to drop certain.
Earlier, three favorable factors - the U.S. stock market rebound, fall in oil prices and economic data and jointly promote the improvement of the dollar. U.S. Chamber of Commerce Tuesday released the data showed that U.S. July consumer confidence index rose to 51.9, higher than the market expected, but also in December last year, the first since the rise. Global economic slowdown and high crude oil prices significantly damage the global demand for crude oil, oil prices plummeted. U.S. stocks in the financial sector began to change in attitude, investors generally believe that the assets of Merrill Lynch recently Chongjian may mean that the banking industry will spend the loan-to-crisis difficulties and promote U.S. financial stocks rose. These three factors, if there are two changes, the dollar's rally may be ending.
Net of the ADP employment report, does not necessarily indicate a strong payrolls data. ADP data last month, far less than expected, while non-farm payrolls and not unexpected. So the trend of the dollar also need heavyweight economic data guidelines.
[Today data]
17:00 Eurozone unemployment rate in June
17:00 to reconcile the euro zone in July consumer price index before the value of 4.0 percent / year; market forecast 4.1 percent / year
20:30 Canada in May of 0.4 percent before the GDP / month; market forecast of 0.3% / month
20:30 U.S. second quarter GDP of 1.0 percent before / year; market forecast of 2.2%
21:45 U.S. July Chicago Purchasing Managers index value of 49.6 before; market forecast 49.0.
The dollar's overall trend is up after the first down. ADP released by the United States as unexpectedly strong employment report for the dollar bulls continued to strike back created an opportunity, once again pushed the dollar rose to 73.54. ADP employment report showed that U.S. July employment increased 9,000 accidents, far better than the expected reduction of 50,000.
And yesterday's sharp rebound in crude oil prices, but to stop the dollar's rising pace. The highest technical rebound in oil prices rebounded to above 127 U.S. dollars, such a rebound can continue to maintain, but also need to wait and see, generally eight or nine months a year in oil prices tend to drop certain.
Earlier, three favorable factors - the U.S. stock market rebound, fall in oil prices and economic data and jointly promote the improvement of the dollar. U.S. Chamber of Commerce Tuesday released the data showed that U.S. July consumer confidence index rose to 51.9, higher than the market expected, but also in December last year, the first since the rise. Global economic slowdown and high crude oil prices significantly damage the global demand for crude oil, oil prices plummeted. U.S. stocks in the financial sector began to change in attitude, investors generally believe that the assets of Merrill Lynch recently Chongjian may mean that the banking industry will spend the loan-to-crisis difficulties and promote U.S. financial stocks rose. These three factors, if there are two changes, the dollar's rally may be ending.
Net of the ADP employment report, does not necessarily indicate a strong payrolls data. ADP data last month, far less than expected, while non-farm payrolls and not unexpected. So the trend of the dollar also need heavyweight economic data guidelines.
[Today data]
17:00 Eurozone unemployment rate in June
17:00 to reconcile the euro zone in July consumer price index before the value of 4.0 percent / year; market forecast 4.1 percent / year
20:30 Canada in May of 0.4 percent before the GDP / month; market forecast of 0.3% / month
20:30 U.S. second quarter GDP of 1.0 percent before / year; market forecast of 2.2%
21:45 U.S. July Chicago Purchasing Managers index value of 49.6 before; market forecast 49.0.
British house prices to a maximum of seven years of decline
The London-based real estate research institutions HOMETRACK27 issued reports that in July the British average price of housing a year-on-year decline in most of the past seven years, and the momentum of decline may continue for several months.
The report showed that, in July in England and Wales average price of single-housing units than the same period last year fell 4.4 percent to 168,500 pounds (about 336,000 U.S. dollars), or higher than June's 1.2 percent, the statistics began in HOMETRACK2001 Since the biggest monthly decline.
HOMETRACK Research Officer Richard Tangnai pointed out that given the current housing market uncertainties facing the short term is unlikely to disappear, the transaction is expected to remain restrained, the downward pressure on prices will continue until this fall.
The loan-to-the United States after the outbreak of the crisis, the British credit markets also be affected, banks generally raised mortgage rates and tight credit, leading to the housing market were hit. Bank of England recently said that the British housing market fell momentum "is being accelerated."
The report showed that, in July in England and Wales average price of single-housing units than the same period last year fell 4.4 percent to 168,500 pounds (about 336,000 U.S. dollars), or higher than June's 1.2 percent, the statistics began in HOMETRACK2001 Since the biggest monthly decline.
HOMETRACK Research Officer Richard Tangnai pointed out that given the current housing market uncertainties facing the short term is unlikely to disappear, the transaction is expected to remain restrained, the downward pressure on prices will continue until this fall.
The loan-to-the United States after the outbreak of the crisis, the British credit markets also be affected, banks generally raised mortgage rates and tight credit, leading to the housing market were hit. Bank of England recently said that the British housing market fell momentum "is being accelerated."
August speculation Hong Kong stocks should seize the four major Keywords
Today, July is the last trading day. If the market has not significantly dropped, then the "five poor must 6 7 emancipated" As the saying goes in the Hong Kong stock market will be confirmed. To July 30 closing, the Hang Seng index closed at 22690.60 points, the 22102.01 points by the end of June rose 588.59 points, or 2.594 percent cumulative; state-owned enterprises outperform market index, yesterday to close at 12469.26 points, the 11909.75 points by the end of June rose 559.51 points, accumulated Or 4.487 percent.
July Review: July-finance real estate "emancipated"
In early July, the Hong Kong equities, "emancipated" the trend is not satisfactory. The Hang Seng Index in the July 8 dropped to 21098.84 points although there are technical rebound, but only rose to the level of 22,000 points will be U-turn downward.
Turnover plunged
To July 16, the Hang Seng Index dropped to the lowest intraday 20988.74 points, the market confidence in the verge of collapse, and the market is at this time of a turnaround - U.S. policy was to save the market. Since July 16, a wave of Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly. To July 24, the Hang Seng Index in seven trading days up to skyrocketing 2370.31 points, the biggest gain 11.29 percent. Up to a faster decline. To intraday high and low-bit computing, in the July 24 to July 29 the four trading days, the Hang Seng Index fell to 1279.96 points, short-term sharp fluctuations "frighten away" many investors, the market turnover reduced to 40 to 50 billion Hong Kong dollar.
On the plate, in July turned the market is the largest financial groups to benefit property stocks. To July 30 close-bit computing, the Hong Kong Monetary index than the end of June rose significantly 1691.86 points, or 4.8 percent, to close at 35196.76 points, while Hong Kong's property sub-index closed at 27245.01 points, an increase of 5.6 percent, on the Running lose half of the financial market the real estate section in July finally revive the glory. Stocks in the first half year, "Huitoutulian" HSBC Holdings (00005, HK) in late July Elevated sharply, although recently entered the adjustment, but still a cumulative increase of 6.3%; leading Hong Kong property shares of Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016, HK) and the Yangtze River Industrial (00001, HK) in July were up 10.3 percent and four percent.
The shares of state-owned enterprises, the Olympic eve of the "honeymoon period" is a great performance opportunities. In July, the market reported similar macroeconomic regulation and control may "Songshou" the news, finance, real estate section, "Xishangmeishao." To the Industrial and Commercial Bank (01398, HK) as an example, the stock closed at 5.89 Hong Kong dollar yesterday, a June 30 closing price of 5.33 Hong Kong dollar soared 10.5 percent, China Merchants Bank (03968, HK), CITIC Bank (00998, HK) accumulated Or respectively 15.3 percent and 12.13 percent. Property stocks, real estate Shimao (00813, HK), R & F Properties (02777, HK), North Star (00588, HK) each in July rose 9.05 percent, 11 percent and 10.48 percent.
Quotes untold optimism on the Olympic Games
For the coming August market, analysts point of view there are large differences.
KGI (Asia) director of the Kuang-bin to the "Daily News" said that this year, the market has been through several Tandi. The first was in January, the index to 21709.63 points after the rebound, the second was in March, the index scale new year low of 20,573 points is the third time in the July 16, the index dropped to 20,989 points after the session Rebound, such a rebound is expected in August will be continuity. However, he also respect the public-bin, entering the Hong Kong stock market this year bear market since the rebound each time the waves are less than a wave, the high point in August should not be higher than in May of 26,378 points, the Hang Seng Index is expected the high point Will appear in 23,500 points to 24,000 points between.
Mr Kwong of KGI and the public-bin compared to First Shanghai Securities analyst Ye Shangzhi in the "Daily Economic News" interview, it is relatively cautious, "in August to do worse psychologically prepared for the market will be even more sluggish" . Hong Kong stocks have entered a bear market now No. 3, also fell stage is expendable, even if the index rose during the bear market will rebound in the technology, investors can not Kurume.
As for whether the duration of the current round of a bear market, were optimistic that the market early next year will be stabilized; pessimists who think that adjustments will continue until 2010. But experience tells us that the bear market most of the time not exceeding 18 months, the duration of six months to 13 months up to the middle. This basis, the bear market will be in the middle of next year is expected to end.
August Raiders: Operation Olympic, mainly to the four major Keywords
For the Olympic Games on the operation, "Daily News" in an interview with a number of analysts, summed up the four words to help you grasp on the Olympic Games Quotes.
Keywords 1: high parabolic Olympic concept stocks
On entering the Olympic Games, the Olympic concept stocks is an unavoidable topic of conversation. KGI (Asia) director of the Kuang-bin said that the concept of the Olympic Games has entered an end, speculation Olympic concept stocks investors should Fenggao shipments. Mr Kwong Man-bin respect, this year, the stock speculation of the Olympic Games is the best period in July, Li Ning (02331, HK), led by Olympic concept stocks in July Zhuanzu eyeball, or accumulated considerable. Li-Ning Sports Goods and Anta (02020, HK) 7月biggest increase close to seven percent. Ye Shangzhi First Shanghai Securities analyst pointed out that the concept of the Olympic Games shares the valuation is relatively high, equivalent to approximately 20 times the expected price-earnings ratio, price-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Index only 14 times.
Keywords 2: Center Daily News surprise or limited
Entered August, the heavyweights will have released interim results. In the month before the Olympics, the sporadic release of the Center Daily News to become a very small number of the continuation of the speculation of hot, every listed company released better-than-expected interim results, often better than their short-term trend of the market. Of course, the performance of early warning units, without exception, become short against the target.
For August the Center Daily News Quotes, Ye Shangzhi that the economic downturn in Europe and the United States, soaring oil prices led to the high cost of the background of this year, the Center Daily News Quotes difficult to surprise. It is precisely because the first half of poor business environment, investors will have a strong wait-and-see mood, thereby inhibiting or index.
Keywords 3: Federal Reserve that interest rates
The Fed will be on August 5 that interest rates again at the meeting.
Ye Shangzhi pointed out that the current global market share continues to lead Aestheticism, the Fed's interest rate proposed resolution is still affecting the global capital markets nervous. However, economic growth and inflation into a dilemma concerns the Federal Reserve is expected to be the pattern in August to keep rates unchanged. Another analyst pointed out that the U.S. is currently facing is the main core inflation, once the grain and oil prices fell, the inflation pressure will be greatly reduced, it reduces the likelihood the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Although the market that the Fed's interest rate results have been expected, but that in the absence of other market interest rates before and after the subjects that interest rates will cause a topic of speculation.
Keywords 4: Bo bargain hunting buying rebound
Although the market optimistic about the unspeakable, but they still have the opportunity to bargain hunting buying Bo rebound.
Jinyu Universal Co-director Lin Weixiong proposal, the current short-term investors should按兵不动, the bear market is the most valuable cash. Because the market is expected to have 5% or more of the decline, investors can wait for one or the ultimate, when the Hang Seng index fell to 20,000 points level again when opportunistic shots.
Lin Weixiong also summed up the market for short-term investors of the six major sign of bottoming out: First, from a technical point of view, the present trend of the stock market lower after the first high-form, Dow index smaller decreases, even a rebound in the second, will have all the major desalination All positions open, leading to the market panic selling; three, with continued shrinkage; 40, the futures from days of low water (futures lower than the spot) to high water (above the spot futures); five, technical indicators issued bottomed out Signal, such as fluctuations in the rate reduction, relative strength index fell below 30; six from the Hong Kong dollar and Hong Kong dollar interbank interest rates observed capital flows, to see whether there is a substantial capital inflow into Hong Kong.
Source: Daily Economic News
July Review: July-finance real estate "emancipated"
In early July, the Hong Kong equities, "emancipated" the trend is not satisfactory. The Hang Seng Index in the July 8 dropped to 21098.84 points although there are technical rebound, but only rose to the level of 22,000 points will be U-turn downward.
Turnover plunged
To July 16, the Hang Seng Index dropped to the lowest intraday 20988.74 points, the market confidence in the verge of collapse, and the market is at this time of a turnaround - U.S. policy was to save the market. Since July 16, a wave of Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly. To July 24, the Hang Seng Index in seven trading days up to skyrocketing 2370.31 points, the biggest gain 11.29 percent. Up to a faster decline. To intraday high and low-bit computing, in the July 24 to July 29 the four trading days, the Hang Seng Index fell to 1279.96 points, short-term sharp fluctuations "frighten away" many investors, the market turnover reduced to 40 to 50 billion Hong Kong dollar.
On the plate, in July turned the market is the largest financial groups to benefit property stocks. To July 30 close-bit computing, the Hong Kong Monetary index than the end of June rose significantly 1691.86 points, or 4.8 percent, to close at 35196.76 points, while Hong Kong's property sub-index closed at 27245.01 points, an increase of 5.6 percent, on the Running lose half of the financial market the real estate section in July finally revive the glory. Stocks in the first half year, "Huitoutulian" HSBC Holdings (00005, HK) in late July Elevated sharply, although recently entered the adjustment, but still a cumulative increase of 6.3%; leading Hong Kong property shares of Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016, HK) and the Yangtze River Industrial (00001, HK) in July were up 10.3 percent and four percent.
The shares of state-owned enterprises, the Olympic eve of the "honeymoon period" is a great performance opportunities. In July, the market reported similar macroeconomic regulation and control may "Songshou" the news, finance, real estate section, "Xishangmeishao." To the Industrial and Commercial Bank (01398, HK) as an example, the stock closed at 5.89 Hong Kong dollar yesterday, a June 30 closing price of 5.33 Hong Kong dollar soared 10.5 percent, China Merchants Bank (03968, HK), CITIC Bank (00998, HK) accumulated Or respectively 15.3 percent and 12.13 percent. Property stocks, real estate Shimao (00813, HK), R & F Properties (02777, HK), North Star (00588, HK) each in July rose 9.05 percent, 11 percent and 10.48 percent.
Quotes untold optimism on the Olympic Games
For the coming August market, analysts point of view there are large differences.
KGI (Asia) director of the Kuang-bin to the "Daily News" said that this year, the market has been through several Tandi. The first was in January, the index to 21709.63 points after the rebound, the second was in March, the index scale new year low of 20,573 points is the third time in the July 16, the index dropped to 20,989 points after the session Rebound, such a rebound is expected in August will be continuity. However, he also respect the public-bin, entering the Hong Kong stock market this year bear market since the rebound each time the waves are less than a wave, the high point in August should not be higher than in May of 26,378 points, the Hang Seng Index is expected the high point Will appear in 23,500 points to 24,000 points between.
Mr Kwong of KGI and the public-bin compared to First Shanghai Securities analyst Ye Shangzhi in the "Daily Economic News" interview, it is relatively cautious, "in August to do worse psychologically prepared for the market will be even more sluggish" . Hong Kong stocks have entered a bear market now No. 3, also fell stage is expendable, even if the index rose during the bear market will rebound in the technology, investors can not Kurume.
As for whether the duration of the current round of a bear market, were optimistic that the market early next year will be stabilized; pessimists who think that adjustments will continue until 2010. But experience tells us that the bear market most of the time not exceeding 18 months, the duration of six months to 13 months up to the middle. This basis, the bear market will be in the middle of next year is expected to end.
August Raiders: Operation Olympic, mainly to the four major Keywords
For the Olympic Games on the operation, "Daily News" in an interview with a number of analysts, summed up the four words to help you grasp on the Olympic Games Quotes.
Keywords 1: high parabolic Olympic concept stocks
On entering the Olympic Games, the Olympic concept stocks is an unavoidable topic of conversation. KGI (Asia) director of the Kuang-bin said that the concept of the Olympic Games has entered an end, speculation Olympic concept stocks investors should Fenggao shipments. Mr Kwong Man-bin respect, this year, the stock speculation of the Olympic Games is the best period in July, Li Ning (02331, HK), led by Olympic concept stocks in July Zhuanzu eyeball, or accumulated considerable. Li-Ning Sports Goods and Anta (02020, HK) 7月biggest increase close to seven percent. Ye Shangzhi First Shanghai Securities analyst pointed out that the concept of the Olympic Games shares the valuation is relatively high, equivalent to approximately 20 times the expected price-earnings ratio, price-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Index only 14 times.
Keywords 2: Center Daily News surprise or limited
Entered August, the heavyweights will have released interim results. In the month before the Olympics, the sporadic release of the Center Daily News to become a very small number of the continuation of the speculation of hot, every listed company released better-than-expected interim results, often better than their short-term trend of the market. Of course, the performance of early warning units, without exception, become short against the target.
For August the Center Daily News Quotes, Ye Shangzhi that the economic downturn in Europe and the United States, soaring oil prices led to the high cost of the background of this year, the Center Daily News Quotes difficult to surprise. It is precisely because the first half of poor business environment, investors will have a strong wait-and-see mood, thereby inhibiting or index.
Keywords 3: Federal Reserve that interest rates
The Fed will be on August 5 that interest rates again at the meeting.
Ye Shangzhi pointed out that the current global market share continues to lead Aestheticism, the Fed's interest rate proposed resolution is still affecting the global capital markets nervous. However, economic growth and inflation into a dilemma concerns the Federal Reserve is expected to be the pattern in August to keep rates unchanged. Another analyst pointed out that the U.S. is currently facing is the main core inflation, once the grain and oil prices fell, the inflation pressure will be greatly reduced, it reduces the likelihood the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Although the market that the Fed's interest rate results have been expected, but that in the absence of other market interest rates before and after the subjects that interest rates will cause a topic of speculation.
Keywords 4: Bo bargain hunting buying rebound
Although the market optimistic about the unspeakable, but they still have the opportunity to bargain hunting buying Bo rebound.
Jinyu Universal Co-director Lin Weixiong proposal, the current short-term investors should按兵不动, the bear market is the most valuable cash. Because the market is expected to have 5% or more of the decline, investors can wait for one or the ultimate, when the Hang Seng index fell to 20,000 points level again when opportunistic shots.
Lin Weixiong also summed up the market for short-term investors of the six major sign of bottoming out: First, from a technical point of view, the present trend of the stock market lower after the first high-form, Dow index smaller decreases, even a rebound in the second, will have all the major desalination All positions open, leading to the market panic selling; three, with continued shrinkage; 40, the futures from days of low water (futures lower than the spot) to high water (above the spot futures); five, technical indicators issued bottomed out Signal, such as fluctuations in the rate reduction, relative strength index fell below 30; six from the Hong Kong dollar and Hong Kong dollar interbank interest rates observed capital flows, to see whether there is a substantial capital inflow into Hong Kong.
Source: Daily Economic News
Hong Kong newspaper News Summary (08.07.31)
Following is the Hong Kong media on July 31 News Summary:
1. According to the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported that HSBC (00,005) to the Lone Star acquired Korea Exchange Bank (KEB) trading deadline expires today, but South Korean authorities have not yet finalized, according to South Korean newspapers quoted government sources said, Lone Star South Korea may be charged if the Government delayed assessment of the transactions.
2. According to the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported, the HKEx (00,388) that only the first gold exchange traded funds (ETF)-SPDR gold ETF (02840) will be held today in the wholly-owned subsidiary of HKEx on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong listed on the Main Board.
3. According to the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported, according to foreign reports, Sinopec (00,386) the first half was 30.9 billion yuan subsidy to compensate for the first half of its refining losses, including these subsidies have been the first quarter was 7.4 billion yuan of subsidies.
4. According to the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported that Standard Chartered Group (02,888) is considering the creation of the rural areas of Shanghai Chongming County Bank, Standard Chartered Bank and the Shanghai local government earlier in the development of the plan, for the purpose of the local agriculture and the development of SMEs Provide funding.
5. According to the Hong Kong Sing Tao Daily reported that China Gas (00,003) plans to offer 10-year bonds is expected to issue the bond issue of at least 500 million U.S. dollars, interest rates than the 10-year U.S. bonds 1.8 percent, or about 5.7 percent .
6. According to Hong Kong's Apple Daily reported that Beijing Holdings (00,392) Vice-President and Chief Executive Officer, said Zhang Honghai, the proportion of its total profits 60-65% of Beijing Gas, in addition to plans to open up the market in Beijing's suburbs, determined to become a national gas supplier .
7. According to the Hong Kong Sing Tao Daily reported that a show of Health (00,754) to 772 million yuan in the six months to Huizhou, a real estate trading center purchased the land use rights for industrial, office and residential uses. That the company , The transactions will help business development and brand building.
8. According to the Hong Kong Oriental Daily News reported that the first police only issued a surplus of blue chips in aluminum (02,600), its parent company in the aluminum companies were registered in the first half of 7 billion yuan of profits, but of the Group's 2007 annual revenue of more than 90 percent of alumina And primary aluminum, the first half of output increased by only 0.46 percent and 1.57 percent.
9. According to the Hong Kong Oriental Daily News reported that China Eastern Airlines (00670) on the introduction of foreign capital flight rate perseverance, the management of media access groups that the Olympic Games in Beijing after the re-introduction of Singapore Airlines to discuss the programme, which aims to improve the financial position of Eastern Airlines.
10. According to Hong Kong's Oriental Daily News reported that the coal in energy (01,898) recently announced interim net profit earn nearly 60 percent, Morgan Stanley has released a report that mainland China coal industry policy risks still exist, the stock price will be reduced to 21.5 Hong Kong dollar.
11. According to the Hong Kong Economic Times reported, there were reports that China Mobile (00941) is planning to China Telecom (00,728) hinterland of the southern provinces, the CDMA network to attract customers to switch to other networks, telecommunications analyst at DBS Liu Tai-sheng pointed out that «field that this is The opportunity to stabilize the lead.
12. According to the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported that China's telecommunications services (00,552), was a shareholder after the close of waiting for opportunities in order to close配股price of 5.7 Hong Kong dollar, placing the old Group of 6250 million shares, generating 356 million Hong Kong dollar.
13. According to the Hong Kong Sing Tao Daily reported, the Zhuzhou Southern vehicles (03,898) and South entered into a four-car sales contracts, cost about 356 million yuan. In addition to the company with South Zhuzhou, entered into a motorcycle sales contracts, the price for 600 million yuan.
14. According to the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported that the Chinese wireless (02,369) issued a profit warning, expected in 2008 interim results will be recorded in the loss, estimated as at June 30 this year during the interim results will be recorded in the loss. Said, according to the known Data analysis, performance setback is due to the decrease in sales.
15. Xianggangmingbao According to reports, German International (00928) on the 30th for the suspension, due to be announced as at the end of March this year during the annual results. Tak before the suspension to close at 0.4 Hong Kong dollar, or no effect. In fact, Germany, and 2002 stocks listed on the Hong Kong dollar 0.385, close the gap.
16. Xianggangmingbao According to reports, buy back the benefit of the business income Tianbao started recording, the mainland of China food suppliers for good in mind the food (01,175) As at the end of March only, full-year earnings growth of 18 percent to 580 million yuan.
17. According to the Hong Kong Economic Daily News reported that the Japan Securities released a report, published today forecast the performance of Orient Overseas (00,316), first half net profit will fall and expect the second half of the gross profit margin will be added the issue of oil prices down.
18. According to the Hong Kong Economic Daily News reported that Dai Lisi (00,333) yesterday announced the acquisition cost of 303 million Hong Kong dollar benefits German underwear and related companies. Target company's net asset value to 228 million Hong Kong dollar. Prerequisite for the acquisition of specified benefits Germany need to disarm before the acquisition of all bank liabilities.
19. According to the Hong Kong Sing Tao Daily reported that the sun Paper (02,002) chairman and managing director of Wang Dongxing said that the first half of the cost has increased over the same period last year, but the waste paper prices have been high and Mujiang down, with the expected costs The decline in the first half of its average fare increase 8-9 percent, digestible completely out of rising costs.
Source: Reuters
1. According to the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported that HSBC (00,005) to the Lone Star acquired Korea Exchange Bank (KEB) trading deadline expires today, but South Korean authorities have not yet finalized, according to South Korean newspapers quoted government sources said, Lone Star South Korea may be charged if the Government delayed assessment of the transactions.
2. According to the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported, the HKEx (00,388) that only the first gold exchange traded funds (ETF)-SPDR gold ETF (02840) will be held today in the wholly-owned subsidiary of HKEx on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong listed on the Main Board.
3. According to the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported, according to foreign reports, Sinopec (00,386) the first half was 30.9 billion yuan subsidy to compensate for the first half of its refining losses, including these subsidies have been the first quarter was 7.4 billion yuan of subsidies.
4. According to the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported that Standard Chartered Group (02,888) is considering the creation of the rural areas of Shanghai Chongming County Bank, Standard Chartered Bank and the Shanghai local government earlier in the development of the plan, for the purpose of the local agriculture and the development of SMEs Provide funding.
5. According to the Hong Kong Sing Tao Daily reported that China Gas (00,003) plans to offer 10-year bonds is expected to issue the bond issue of at least 500 million U.S. dollars, interest rates than the 10-year U.S. bonds 1.8 percent, or about 5.7 percent .
6. According to Hong Kong's Apple Daily reported that Beijing Holdings (00,392) Vice-President and Chief Executive Officer, said Zhang Honghai, the proportion of its total profits 60-65% of Beijing Gas, in addition to plans to open up the market in Beijing's suburbs, determined to become a national gas supplier .
7. According to the Hong Kong Sing Tao Daily reported that a show of Health (00,754) to 772 million yuan in the six months to Huizhou, a real estate trading center purchased the land use rights for industrial, office and residential uses. That the company , The transactions will help business development and brand building.
8. According to the Hong Kong Oriental Daily News reported that the first police only issued a surplus of blue chips in aluminum (02,600), its parent company in the aluminum companies were registered in the first half of 7 billion yuan of profits, but of the Group's 2007 annual revenue of more than 90 percent of alumina And primary aluminum, the first half of output increased by only 0.46 percent and 1.57 percent.
9. According to the Hong Kong Oriental Daily News reported that China Eastern Airlines (00670) on the introduction of foreign capital flight rate perseverance, the management of media access groups that the Olympic Games in Beijing after the re-introduction of Singapore Airlines to discuss the programme, which aims to improve the financial position of Eastern Airlines.
10. According to Hong Kong's Oriental Daily News reported that the coal in energy (01,898) recently announced interim net profit earn nearly 60 percent, Morgan Stanley has released a report that mainland China coal industry policy risks still exist, the stock price will be reduced to 21.5 Hong Kong dollar.
11. According to the Hong Kong Economic Times reported, there were reports that China Mobile (00941) is planning to China Telecom (00,728) hinterland of the southern provinces, the CDMA network to attract customers to switch to other networks, telecommunications analyst at DBS Liu Tai-sheng pointed out that «field that this is The opportunity to stabilize the lead.
12. According to the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported that China's telecommunications services (00,552), was a shareholder after the close of waiting for opportunities in order to close配股price of 5.7 Hong Kong dollar, placing the old Group of 6250 million shares, generating 356 million Hong Kong dollar.
13. According to the Hong Kong Sing Tao Daily reported, the Zhuzhou Southern vehicles (03,898) and South entered into a four-car sales contracts, cost about 356 million yuan. In addition to the company with South Zhuzhou, entered into a motorcycle sales contracts, the price for 600 million yuan.
14. According to the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported that the Chinese wireless (02,369) issued a profit warning, expected in 2008 interim results will be recorded in the loss, estimated as at June 30 this year during the interim results will be recorded in the loss. Said, according to the known Data analysis, performance setback is due to the decrease in sales.
15. Xianggangmingbao According to reports, German International (00928) on the 30th for the suspension, due to be announced as at the end of March this year during the annual results. Tak before the suspension to close at 0.4 Hong Kong dollar, or no effect. In fact, Germany, and 2002 stocks listed on the Hong Kong dollar 0.385, close the gap.
16. Xianggangmingbao According to reports, buy back the benefit of the business income Tianbao started recording, the mainland of China food suppliers for good in mind the food (01,175) As at the end of March only, full-year earnings growth of 18 percent to 580 million yuan.
17. According to the Hong Kong Economic Daily News reported that the Japan Securities released a report, published today forecast the performance of Orient Overseas (00,316), first half net profit will fall and expect the second half of the gross profit margin will be added the issue of oil prices down.
18. According to the Hong Kong Economic Daily News reported that Dai Lisi (00,333) yesterday announced the acquisition cost of 303 million Hong Kong dollar benefits German underwear and related companies. Target company's net asset value to 228 million Hong Kong dollar. Prerequisite for the acquisition of specified benefits Germany need to disarm before the acquisition of all bank liabilities.
19. According to the Hong Kong Sing Tao Daily reported that the sun Paper (02,002) chairman and managing director of Wang Dongxing said that the first half of the cost has increased over the same period last year, but the waste paper prices have been high and Mujiang down, with the expected costs The decline in the first half of its average fare increase 8-9 percent, digestible completely out of rising costs.
Source: Reuters
The first half of the people of Hong Kong home buyers down 29%
Hong Kong home buyers in the international research report pointed out that the first half of this year the people of Hong Kong to purchase the property about the number of flats from 9100 to 9700 sets, than the same period last year declined substantially by 29 percent. The company pointed out that the recent desire of people to go northward home buyers has increased, it is estimated that Hong Kong people to buy the whole year the number of properties in Mainland only 19,800 to 20,800 units, compared with the amount of 15.7 billion yuan, up by about 13 percent the previous year.
Home buyers International President Cai Michael Choi Ngai-min said the launch of the macro-control measures in many cities affected by the real estate market, the Shenzhen as an example, the only turnover the first half of 1.5 million square meters, over a year earlier, down 50 percent.
He believed that the Shanghai property market in the first quarter of solid performance, but second-quarter turnover also begin to decline. But he is expected to price increases this year of about 6-7 percent. He is not optimistic about the Beijing property market, he expected Beijing Olympic Games after the property market turnover will decline, but the trend remains to be seen.
Home buyers International President Cai Michael Choi Ngai-min said the launch of the macro-control measures in many cities affected by the real estate market, the Shenzhen as an example, the only turnover the first half of 1.5 million square meters, over a year earlier, down 50 percent.
He believed that the Shanghai property market in the first quarter of solid performance, but second-quarter turnover also begin to decline. But he is expected to price increases this year of about 6-7 percent. He is not optimistic about the Beijing property market, he expected Beijing Olympic Games after the property market turnover will decline, but the trend remains to be seen.
This gold ETF landing procedures for the sale of the HKEx securities with the same general
Hong Kong SFC authorized only the first track gold price of the Exchange Traded Fund - gold ETF, today officially landing the HKEx.
It is understood that this gold ETF called the "SPDR gold ETF", is the world's largest institutional fund management company State Street Global's series of ETF products - SPDRETFs in one. The products are mainly for investment in gold, physical gold investment vehicle belonging to, to provide investors with a need for physical gold settlement and can participate in the gold market via a simple investment.
The gold ETF trading procedures and the general stock of the same. Fund companies to large consignment of gold producers relying on physical gold in the Exchange Fund share public offering, investors in the share of funds to purchase, and the time period in freedom redeemed. More suitable for less experienced and do not want to spend too much time on the retail investment management.
It is understood that this gold ETF called the "SPDR gold ETF", is the world's largest institutional fund management company State Street Global's series of ETF products - SPDRETFs in one. The products are mainly for investment in gold, physical gold investment vehicle belonging to, to provide investors with a need for physical gold settlement and can participate in the gold market via a simple investment.
The gold ETF trading procedures and the general stock of the same. Fund companies to large consignment of gold producers relying on physical gold in the Exchange Fund share public offering, investors in the share of funds to purchase, and the time period in freedom redeemed. More suitable for less experienced and do not want to spend too much time on the retail investment management.
Wang House of God into shares Lee Shau Kee Choi big Jiedi technology (stocks of God positions)
Source: view real estate network
Elderly people were the Asia-Pacific region millions, or even tens of millions of fans known as "Asia's share of God", some people call him "Hong Kong Buffett."
Hong Kong in October, apart from some autumn leaves, is still very dry and very hot weather or occasionally, compared to fanaticism Luoben in the capital market, the frenzied chase, Putiaorulei, overjoyed people what the weather really did not feel API never care about. HSI in June or 22000,9, has been on 12 to 25000,10 again billowed into the 29,000, you panic, ecstasy mad love, October 26, HSI really breaking the 30,000 mark, after the big Or also rose, 10 years of a unique Hong Kong style raids were a space, a new capital market was born.
Click the picture flip
Lee Shau Kee
Investors or speculators, or bystanders, or pay homage in a 79-year-old Hong Kong elderly people, many white-haired, very good spirit, the Hong Kong stock market's "big brother to take the lead" characters, often loudly Fang Yan: Yes 30,000 points , 33000 before Christmas, everywhere at every turn teach their own investment Gonglue, praising shares of state-owned enterprises, he said the United States than their share of God Buffett better: they teach investment experience, money, and I are free Openly that we all benefit.
Definitely not the speaker, preacher, who will attend classes can make all the retail, Diaomin all tertiary worship, this old man's family business has five listed companies, the assets of 100 billion Hong Kong dollars, once ranked as the world's rich list No. 7, the fork is more cattle in 2004, his 76 years of age, suddenly "epiphany", with 50 billion in cash, the establishment of private investment funds, stock speculation began personally put out to sea, the ways and means of a unique, means and strategies Superman First, very quickly, in 2006 he earned a 50 billion a year almost 50 percent rate of return.
Close to the end of 2007, this 79-year-old man quietly to the media, said that 50 billion could be reached 200 billion, better than its listed companies is also excellent. Indeed, he signs on strength and words, a "big brother to take the lead", the spiritual leader really is not bragging, write blog, everywhere can be done by the speech.
Elderly people were the Asia-Pacific region millions, or even tens of millions of fans known as "Asia's share of God", some people call him "Hong Kong Buffett."
Hong Kong in October, apart from some autumn leaves, is still very dry and very hot weather or occasionally, compared to fanaticism Luoben in the capital market, the frenzied chase, Putiaorulei, overjoyed people what the weather really did not feel API never care about. HSI in June or 22000,9, has been on 12 to 25000,10 again billowed into the 29,000, you panic, ecstasy mad love, October 26, HSI really breaking the 30,000 mark, after the big Or also rose, 10 years of a unique Hong Kong style raids were a space, a new capital market was born.
Click the picture flip
Lee Shau Kee
Investors or speculators, or bystanders, or pay homage in a 79-year-old Hong Kong elderly people, many white-haired, very good spirit, the Hong Kong stock market's "big brother to take the lead" characters, often loudly Fang Yan: Yes 30,000 points , 33000 before Christmas, everywhere at every turn teach their own investment Gonglue, praising shares of state-owned enterprises, he said the United States than their share of God Buffett better: they teach investment experience, money, and I are free Openly that we all benefit.
Definitely not the speaker, preacher, who will attend classes can make all the retail, Diaomin all tertiary worship, this old man's family business has five listed companies, the assets of 100 billion Hong Kong dollars, once ranked as the world's rich list No. 7, the fork is more cattle in 2004, his 76 years of age, suddenly "epiphany", with 50 billion in cash, the establishment of private investment funds, stock speculation began personally put out to sea, the ways and means of a unique, means and strategies Superman First, very quickly, in 2006 he earned a 50 billion a year almost 50 percent rate of return.
Close to the end of 2007, this 79-year-old man quietly to the media, said that 50 billion could be reached 200 billion, better than its listed companies is also excellent. Indeed, he signs on strength and words, a "big brother to take the lead", the spiritual leader really is not bragging, write blog, everywhere can be done by the speech.
U.S. employment data Lagao private enterprises dollar
ADP employment service organizations Wednesday announced private enterprises sector employment data show that private enterprises jobs increased in July 9000. Once the number of private enterprises jobs in June decreased by 77,000. In addition, the euro zone economic sentiment fell data indicates that the euro zone's economic situation is deteriorating. Wednesday the euro fell 0.3 percent to 1.5540 U.S. dollars, spent the night at a time Taizhi 1.5616 U.S. dollars. Dollar exchange rate by 1 to 0.1 percent than the 107.71 to 1 ratio 108.20. U.S. dollar index increased 0.3 percent to its highest since June 24, 73.493 DXY.
On the 30th U.S. regional bank stocks gained most of
On the 30th of investors in the U.S. Federal Reserve yesterday announced that the emergency loan program to obtain the confidence of the financial industry, to dispel investors for the lack of liquidity in the banking concern. The central bank allowed commercial banks obtain loans up to 84 days. The plan seeks to enable investment banks more willing to provide funds for mutual self-help. Recent regional banks since the mortgage was in default of a serious loss of influence, they need more cash to overcome difficulties.
National City National City Bank rose 12 cents to 5.10 U.S. dollars, or 2.4%; Zions rose 1.10 to 29 U.S. dollars, or 3.9%; PNC Financial Services Group rose 43 cents to 71.71 U.S. dollars. BB & T rose 1.04 to 28.89 U.S. dollars, or 3.7 percent.
This relative, Fifth Third fell 14 cents to 14.04 U.S. dollars, KeyCorp fell 42 cents to 11.03 U.S. dollars, a decrease of 3.7 percent.
National City National City Bank rose 12 cents to 5.10 U.S. dollars, or 2.4%; Zions rose 1.10 to 29 U.S. dollars, or 3.9%; PNC Financial Services Group rose 43 cents to 71.71 U.S. dollars. BB & T rose 1.04 to 28.89 U.S. dollars, or 3.7 percent.
This relative, Fifth Third fell 14 cents to 14.04 U.S. dollars, KeyCorp fell 42 cents to 11.03 U.S. dollars, a decrease of 3.7 percent.
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