◆ by every reporter from Beijing Wu Xiaojing
Yesterday, the NPC Financial and Economic Committee Room economic wrote an article, the second half of China's economic trend. The report pointed out that the second half of the inflationary pressure is still larger, but rely on price controls to solve the problem of inflation it is very difficult work. The report recommends, by accelerating price reform, curb irrational demand, to achieve the objective of controlling inflation.
Anti-inflation price controls difficult to work
Yesterday, the NPC Financial and Economic Committee released economic room entitled "2008 the first five months of economic analysis," the article analyzing the second half of China's economic trend, pointing out that in the global higher prices at the same time, China's medium and long-term upward pressure on CPI to increase By. The report pointed out that in China's economy into the downlink channel, or significantly higher prices, the national economy from "high growth and low inflation" is in a "high growth, high inflation," and even "low growth and high inflation" development.
NPC Financial and Economic Committee report said that it will continue to push the price reform, rationalize the price system. "This short-term could further push up inflation, curb irrational demand and stimulate the supply of the role is quite obvious that in fact help to control inflation."
"Rely on price controls to solve the problem of inflation it is very difficult work." Report pointed out that from an international viewpoint, the United States around 1973 have tried to rely on price and wage controls to contain inflation, but just the opposite; Venezuela as a major oil-producing country, although the refined oil prices Control at a very low level, but the country's inflation rate has exceeded 20%.
BOC International Holdings Limited directors, chief economist Cao Yuan Zheng explained that, in the face of energy raw materials of such a global rise, to deal with this output of inflation, completely on the resistance and rely on subsidies can not solve the problem.
State Council Development Research Center of Financial Research Institute researcher Qing Wu also believes that price control can not fundamentally solve the problem of inflation, will only intensify in the queue and distort the allocation of resources. He said that although the price control through administrative means to stabilize prices in nominal terms, but in the queue or disguised price increases will certainly prevalent. Price controls will inevitably distort the allocation of resources, which in turn will affect the effectiveness of the Government to control inflation. For example, the prices of restricted industries, the aspirations of a certain decline in supply, "as Sinopec, the two companies in the oil supply to protect the community, additional pay very high short term, long-term perspective, the state can not afford subsidies, the final results of , Or to price hikes. "
In addition, price controls for oil products subsidies, actually encourage the consumption, an increase of future inflation expectations.
正当其时price reform
"Price reform is necessary, the early start!" Yesterday, the State Council Development Research Center of Financial Research Institute researcher Qing Wu said that the government in adjusting prices worries too much, worried about too much impact. He believes that the current domestic oil prices after the increase is still low, even lower than the level of some oil-exporting countries, domestic demand for oil remains high, and increased international oil prices further up the pressure.
Qing Wu said that the current domestic oil products market and international market linkages, on a domestic price increase, he saw immediately the international prices of crude oil futures lower, indicating prices have adjusted to curb demand for the role. International is expected to cut down the results.
According to the company in the calculation, if the price of domestic refined oil increased by 50%, refining margins can be reached international standards, domestic supply will increase and will also inhibit some unreasonable demand, slow rising oil prices pressure. Moreover, if the 2008 mid-term domestic oil prices increased 50 percent, while China's 2009 inflation rate will fall to 7.3 percent if not increase, the 2009 inflation rate will reach 8.7 percent.
"Now is the time for reform." Director of the Central Party School of Economics Wang Tokyo that blindly through government regulation and control prices is not permanent solution, he believed that oil prices should be, Suihangjiushi, firm and market convergence, "Although the short term will Lagao production costs, but it will lead to inflation« I That long-term perspective, help control inflation. "
Qing Wu also believes that the current oil subsidies by the Government, post, neither economic nor sustainable, the micro-economic Acer is not a good thing. He stressed that the price reform to start sooner or later, as Chenzao, "delaying the time is too long, the price is very high."
Link: report proposed to increase the tax threshold
Yesterday, the NPC Financial and Economic Committee report noted that further increases in personal income tax threshold, reducing the savings deposit interest tax rate, increase people's real incomes. On the 22nd of this month, the State Administration of Taxation issued the first half of tax data, including personal income tax completed 213.5 billion yuan, an increase of 27.3 percent. March this year, the tax threshold raised to 1,600 yuan a month from 2,000 yuan, but the first half of income Bujianfanzeng, "increased tax threshold," the voice of recurrence.
"I advocate that the threshold would be raised to 3,000 yuan / month." Director of the Central Party School of Economics Wang Tokyo that during the two sessions this year will be raised by the representative of a tax threshold referred to 5000, but he mentioned that 3,000 yuan more Reality.
Director of the Central Party School of Economics, Tokyo Wang pointed out that the implementation of tax reduction at this time is undoubtedly the best way to promote domestic demand. He said that China's current economic growth to maintain long-term stability, the key precondition for a sustained expansion of domestic demand, the current investment has been overheating, the focus can only be extended to stimulate consumption, while revenue from the consumption, therefore, increase revenue in the final analysis, especially in Income of low-income. "The most simple solution is Wangkaiyimian and improve tax threshold."
NPC Financial and Economic Committee report also suggested that to ease the rising cost of corporate pressure, can reduce the toll road access standards such as taxes and fees, through technological innovation of enterprises to reduce costs and increase the tax relief deduction.
Yesterday, the 11th NPC, Zhejiang Furun (600,070 Quotes, Love Unit, the Information) Group Chairman of the Board Zhao Lin held that the tax cut would greatly reduce the burden on enterprises, thereby tightening in monetary policy, under the framework of the prevention of inflation To prevent the economy as a result of tight liquidity and lead to recession; corporate tax cut will stimulate the area of Industrial returning funds to the "natural" to eliminate the asset price bubble, but also will not lead to a hard landing.
Wang Tokyo also proposed that the Government is necessary to the business tax cuts. He said that now a general increase wage costs, the appreciation of the renminbi, the decline in the competitiveness of enterprises, the tax cut as soon as possible, to prevent wage diverted profits. "VAT should speed up restructuring efforts." Wang said in Tokyo, the NPC Financial and Economic Committee report "through technological innovation of enterprises to reduce costs and increase the tax relief deduction." In his view, not only to give preferential tax policies high-tech enterprises, To face to all enterprises, especially labor-intensive enterprises, which related to employment issues, can prevent the economic downturn.