Market economy for half an hour after the Olympic Games, was severely overdrawn prices will be down

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Starting in 2001, the Beijing real estate development and investment in the total fixed asset investment was the proportion of rapid Elevated, Cuanzhi more than 50% of high, in 2004 set a record high of 58.27 percent, far exceeding the 10 percent of the The international warning line, but also much higher than the national average of about 15 percent of the level Clearly, the successful bid to host the Olympic Games and Olympic-related investment, Beijing has greatly stimulated the real estate development activities.

Today, we continue to carry out post-Olympic guess, we analyzed the Olympic Games yesterday after the stock market, the experts tell us that the Olympics will not bring you look forward to the Olympic market, the stock market really need to depend on the performance of China's economic fundamentals, Today let us look at the Olympic Games before and after the real estate market.

And compared to the stock market, property market and the relationship between the Olympic Games seems to be more direct, especially in Beijing, the Olympic preparations for the huge infrastructure investment, the city's image and enhance the overall strength of these good are bound to reflect the prices of sensitive, are Because they expected that Beijing's property market early and the emergence of a round of the Olympic popular market, we have first to find out.

Beijing property prices starting in 2001 as the starting gun of the successful bid that moment started

July 13, 2001, the International Olympic Committee President Juan Antonio Samaranch announced Beijing as host city for 2008 Olympic Games, "Olympic" from the grid in the hearts of the Chinese people, even though money can not override the Olympic spirit above, but from this moment , The Olympic movement contain the tremendous impetus to economic development has entered a Chinese perspective.

Peking University real estate Chan Kwok-keung, director of the Institute: "We use the real estate sector is very well-known, Feng Lun is a prediction, then his own in Moscow, then that Beijing's successful Olympic bid, he said a remark that the Olympic bid - The Beijing property market is a long-term positive factor. "

As China's real estate man, Wantong Group Chairman of the Board Pinglun the first time predicted that by riding on the east wind of the Olympic Games, Beijing's high-end housing prices rise to nearly 20,000 yuan per square metre not be a problem, and then the Beijing CBD area Jing renovated apartment prices less than 10,000 yuan, is based on the tremendous confidence in the Olympic Games, in the face of endless attractive opportunities, a crazy "enclosure movement" along with the Olympic bid's success opened the curtain.

21 real estate Lu, vice chairman of Air China: "01 years later, I think the growth is not immediately developed, but access to land."

Starting in 2001, the Beijing real estate development and investment in the total fixed asset investment was the proportion of rapid Elevated, Cuanzhi more than 50% of high, in 2004 set a record high of 58.27 percent, far exceeding the 10 percent of the The international warning line, but also much higher than the national average of about 15 percent, while in Shanghai, real estate investment rate was only 30 percent. This shows that the successful bid to host the Olympic Games and the Olympic Games-related investment has greatly stimulated the real estate development activities in Beijing, China in the Olympic Garden, the Beijing Olympic Garden, the North East OCA Centre, the new Austrian houses, and so on a large number of "Olympic" event of the word拔地而起.

Hang Lu: "With the successful bid to host the Olympic Games, the developer of many of the beginning of the layout of this area, including the Olympic village in the vicinity of the plate, then began a lot like starting out in gradually introduced gradually."

North in Beijing, the Olympic venues, "nest" and "Water Cube" has become a surface of the building, while the same is the hallmark of the prices of nearby flats, "Water Cube" the west side of the one called "Pangea Taikan" The apartments, the average price reached 65,000 yuan per square meter, while "The Very Taikan" 500 meters north of the "Olympic Village" is another popular regional event of OCA, in the event of athletes during the Olympic Games will serve as the use of apartments, The purchase of "Olympic Village" the customer can only be admitted in 2009, it purchased the slightest unstoppable enthusiasm, and from the Olympic Village opened at 16,500 yuan per square metre for up to a 27,000 yuan, according to the 21st century real estate in Beijing OCA view of the 11 flats for the price statistics show that in just a few years of house prices showed a sharp rise, the highest gain of 250 percent, the lowest gain was 75%.

Chan Kwok-keung: "Looking back at it now today, the future market changes Pinglun a forecast should still very conservative."

Indeed, because more than OCA region, the whole Beijing's housing prices since 2006, the triple jump-leap in early 2006, three-ring in the event of breakthrough million in 2006, the City of Victoria, the event followed by breaking the million, while 2007 In mid-rings have been hard to get million following the event.

Reporter: "Mr Tsang, I remember that in 2001 Beijing's successful Olympic bid has the time, many developers say that this is a major Beijing real estate market and good news, now seven or eight years have passed, you think, Looking back, What is this good »"

Palm Springs Holdings Ltd., Chairman of the Board, Zeng Wei: "In the eight years there, the Beijing municipal government had about 180 billion yuan, of which about 90 billion for roads, transport, these new airport, probably around 45 billion for the city To improve the environment, then spent nearly another 30 billion to transform this figure in Beijing, there are 15 billion is spent on water, electricity, gas into some of these areas, so I think that this past eight years, is definitely the Beijing raised the A big step, this is the功不可没. "

Beijing well-known as the high-end projects "Palm Springs International Apartment," the developers, Zeng Wei, the Olympic Games to Beijing urban infrastructure construction was fully up to date, so that the value of Beijing City was a rapid increase, the real estate market gain a tremendous development Space.

Zeng Wei: "direct beneficiaries of a small number of people, the real estate business, then the majority of the city and by enhancing the value of the overall development."

Looking at Beijing from 2002 to 2007 domestic goods turnover价格走势图, we can see that 2002 to 2004, the Beijing housing prices still in the downturn, then 2005 is a stable growth period, beginning in 2006 Rates Rapid growth, soaring into the 2007 period, the momentum, and Beijing urban infrastructure construction progress of the match.

Hang Lu: "In fact this is a indeed a cheque honoured a process, you said this place will be passed to the road, there will be a good Subway will repair, as always now people really see in the subway - , In particular, makes this feeling some new district, the district people's confidence is growing enough. "

Beijing University, director of the Institute of Real Estate Chan Kwok-keung do not think the Olympic Games to Beijing housing prices into a bubble, he said that the turning point early in the second mortgage is due to policies introduced, the tight monetary policy and the central bank has repeatedly raising interest rates , "Card" to live the real estate market also restrained the throat of the advance purchase of consumption and investment demand.

Olympic and real estate, and whether there is any kind of contact »

Beijing property prices start of the starting gun, as early as 2001 Olympic bid successful that moment on started, accompanied by city traffic, improve the living environment of Beijing's real estate industry has also entered an accelerated rise in the channel, however, contrary to many people 's Expectations, the property market for several years on the scraping of the Olympic Games wind, but in the Olympic year, a sudden halt, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics released the latest data indicate that: first half of this year, the Beijing city's housing, year-on-year decline in sales of 47.1 % At the same time, sending the BMW purchase, gift fine decoration, special promotions, late straight down, and so on promotions is to pour in, why not open the Olympic Games, the Beijing property market inflection point on a «us找找reasons.

July 8, 2008 the "Nanfang Dushi Bao", published in a giant version of an apology ad, it is because housing prices in Shenzhen Duju loss, Peking University, Professor Xu Dianqing Duju honoured its promise to publicly apologize to the people of Shenzhen, according to Shenzhen City's Bureau of real estate data show that in January this year, Shenzhen prices fell below 15,000 yuan per square meter, more in May fell below 12,000 yuan per square meter, house prices fell by nearly 30% of Shenzhen, the attention of the National Housing Price champion, the first to feel the real estate market's "winter", and then from Shenzhen to the PRD, the property market has spread to the cold spell in Shanghai and Beijing.

21 real estate Lu, vice chairman of Air China: "This year, the new set of trading volume we all know, there should be 40 per cent of the downturn, the stock of Beijing's transaction volume is quite big decline, we think that should be at least 20 Percent or more of. "

In the spring of this year, the Beijing Real Estate Trade Fair, in order to attract the attention of buyers, developers it has employed every skills: the one launched promotional body painting done, the other 20,000 down payment from the bus and donated 2,000 yuan Card, the car won engage in a lucky draw, from purchases of property sent to buy a house delivery vehicles, entered the 5,6 on the Beijing property market is once again set off a tidal wave of concessions.

Focus Real Estate Network Information Center Director Laofang: "The minimum is 10 per cent discount, but also send some of the costs of property, of his own in the event of the discount, we went to after his presentation on the pack."

From the trading volume significantly shrink to a radical discount promotions, the Beijing property market last year Rehuochaotian thoroughly into the doldrums wait-and-see "winter", the firm finally loosening the price.

Hang Lu: "Then the last three weeks, we see more clearly, in Beijing, some local housing prices go down a clear beginning, we see that there is a nearly 15 percent decline in housing prices."

Price seems to be the turning point came earlier than expected number.

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, investment and market research director Cao Jianhai: "the original more conservative estimate is that in the end, that is more accurate to say that from January 2009 onwards, it seems now that this six months ahead of the cycle."

And Cao Jianhai, the National Development and Reform Commission, Institute of Economic Research economic operation and Development Research Office Wang Xiaoguang has published research report is expected, before the 2008 Olympic Games, real estate will remain partial hot growth, at the top of the medium-term prosperity of the region, What are the reasons for the early show the inflection point »

Cao Jianhai: "Because of our housing prices have long been the basis of overdraft facilities to the convenience of the people."

To illustrate the high housing prices have greatly advances the concept of the Olympic Games, Cao Jianhai account calculations to reporters: From 2001 to early 2008 Olympics, Beijing and the Olympic Games directly related to infrastructure investment of about 180 billion yuan, coupled with supporting Communications, posts and telecommunications, roads, education, afforestation, non-Olympic, such as direct investment, a total of around 500 billion yuan, but as of the end of 2007, the Beijing municipal housing within the City of Victoria from 2001 average price of 5,000 yuan per square meter Up to 15,000 yuan, per square meter that is up 10,000 yuan, according to Beijing's 16 million resident population, the per capita residential area of 25 square meters, the residential construction area Total 400 million square meters, which means that from 2001 Since Beijing's total value of residential housing rose by 4 trillion yuan.

Cao Jianhai: "But we have just made a total investment of 500 billion but is, in turn, increase the rate of housing over the input of nearly 8 times that of the Olympic Games so that the market was far from overdrafts."

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, investment and market research director Cao Jianhai told reporters that excessive advances the concept of the Olympic Games means that a large number of housing price bubble, and some of the real estate market speculators sniff out the danger, to get rid out of the hands of the availability, but Since selling too much, there's a pattern of poor sales, prices will drop into the market early.

Cao Jianhai told reporters that excessive advances the concept of the Olympic Games means that a large number of housing price bubble, and some of the real estate market speculators sniff out the danger, to get rid out of the hands of the availability, but due to selling too much of a pattern of poor sales Prices will advance into the drop in prices, real estate and director of the Institute of Beijing University, Chan Kwok-keung do not think the Olympic Games to Beijing housing prices into a bubble, he said that the turning point early in the second mortgage is due to policies introduced, from Tight monetary policy and the central bank has repeatedly raising interest rates, "card" to live the real estate market also restrained the throat of the advance purchase of consumption and investment demand.

Peking University real estate Chan Kwok-keung, director of the Institute: "For the real estate industry a national macro-control policy, regulation and control policy is a combination of the effect of gradually emerged, and then again from the outside, is the international and domestic economy, in fact facing Many uncertain factors, they also contribute to our consumers, buyers appear more obvious the wait-and-see attitude. "

Beijing property market inflection point ahead of the year, this is not only contrary to many people's expectations, but also to many experts had forecast a drop-air, in the end because the concept was ahead of the Olympic Games overdraft, or because the whole macro-economic environment has changed »in It seems to me that perhaps these two factors are jointly promote the movement of house prices, the Olympic and real estate, and whether there is any kind of contact »who have held the Olympic Games cities, their Olympic real estate market is how Release of «I also interviewed a global professional real estate services company Jones Lang LaSalle, to listen to their analysis.

Reporter: "Can you tell us, like Sydney, Seoul, Atlanta, Greece hosted the Olympic Games have these cities, their residential housing prices in the Olympics before and after what has changed?» "

Jones Lang LaSalle Beijing research manager Ben Christensen: "cities and between cities is not the same, I think the best example is the Barcelona Olympics before大兴土木, in the real estate and infrastructure construction on a lot of investment In the short term拔地而起large number of buildings, but Barcelona's economy is relatively stable, so the Olympic Games after the price dropped substantially. "

1986-1993, Barcelona, house prices rose by 250-300 percent, but with the end of the Olympic Games, a substantial decline in housing prices, the biggest annual decline to 50 percent until 1999 before a gradually improving, many people due to speculation of Finance , But also by the many people trapped, and Barcelona is the complete opposite, Seoul 1988 Olympic Games, not only the low prices no effect, the real estate market instead of rapidly warming, continued to boom in 1995, such examples are Sydney, 1993 Sydney bid to host the 2000 Olympic Games, the annual housing prices triggered more than 10 percent of the increase in the next 78 hours, the city housing prices doubled after the 2000 Olympic Games, Sydney house prices due to inertia Role has remained up and continued until the end of 2003, the same as the Olympic Games organized by the city, the situation of the widely divergent »

Ben Christensen: "Support the real estate market growth is the main driving force of demand from population and income growth in the decision, and the Olympics itself almost no relationship."

Reporter: "So you mean is that demand and prices are not directly associated with the Olympic Games» "

Ben Christensen: "Yes, they can only link is when this market speculation, if there is speculation that this part of the Olympic Games after the growth will of course be removed from this part of the price of natural growth to drop back. "

As Jones Lang LaSalle Beijing research manager, the «Vieques Fujimori and his team had just completed a" rapid move towards the new Beijing, "the White Paper, the report pointed out that, in order to successfully hold this year's Olympics, Beijing carried out The history of the Olympics on an unprecedented scale of investment, expansion of the airport, highway, subway and parks, improved transport, afforestation, environmental protection, a 3 G communication facilities, and other inputs, enabling Beijing to become more suitable for residential and commercial development areas.

Reporter: "So you and your company is expected to how the trend of prices after the Beijing Olympics?» "

Ben Christensen: "We expect the Olympic Games in Beijing after the prices have not fallen sharply, in 2008 the market will become more stable, we expect 2009,2010, the price will be returned to rational."

After the Olympics, which house prices will move toward the direction »

Our analysis of a number of Olympic host city property market prices, although the situation around may be different, but the decision of these cities Price Change, in the final analysis or the local population and economic conditions. Similarly, the judgement of the Beijing property market trend, we can not just stare at the Olympic Games this short half a month, have to look at the city's development, or even the whole of China to pay attention to the long-term economic prospects, the Olympic Games before the Beijing property market has been ahead of a turning point , After the Olympic Games, which direction prices will go to «This is what we are most concerned about.

Although the current property market outlook is uncertain, but Zeng Wei was not worried about, he told reporters that he was with great fanfare in Beijing started building a more upscale hotel-style apartments.

Palm Springs Holdings Ltd., Chairman of the Board, Zeng Wei: "Olympics in Beijing on a historic moment, but it in this process, the most important is China's urbanization process in China and the world economic development of such a process, then it's The addition of new immigrants, then with the Olympic Games will fully, it will be sustained economic development. "

Zeng Wei, the Olympic Games to Beijing will organize more international, part of the psychological high-income groups are expected to continue to rise, the high-end real estate development will undoubtedly provide a broader space, and this «Vieques Fujimori also believes that a Irreplaceable advantages in the prices of flats will remain strong.

Jones Lang LaSalle Beijing research manager Ben Christensen: "withstand the test are those with residential characteristics, lots of excellent, cost-effective."

The «Vieques Fujimori told reporters, after the Olympic Games, both high-end, mid-or low-end residential real estate market is essential for the healthy development of a truth, that is, the market value of high and low decision size, those cost-effective low , Poor quality, price increases on speculation of flats in the market return to rational, value prices in the process of reunification, will pay a heavy price, and Tsinghua University, director of the Brookings Center for Public Policy Research Dr. Xiao Geng, the Chinese real estate From the market has been "purely market-oriented" to the market and protect Concurrent's "dual track" that is, "the market to the market, to the protection of security", the crowd was increased protection of commercial housing purchased will be reduced by the crowd and change consumers were "forced" to buy Gao Jiafang situation.

Tsinghua University, director of the Brookings Center for Public Policy Research Xiao Geng: "Hong Kong is actually a very prominent in this area, 40% of them are Hong Kong residents enjoy more or less government subsidies for their housing, or low-cost room, or To sell their relatively cheap rent. "

2008, the State Council have made it clear "to establish housing security system" into the government work plan, the housing security system this year from the rigid policy provisions of the tentacles can be turned into a touch of home project, a set of affordable housing and low-cost Housing .

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao: "This year we must take four measures: First, we must improve the low-rent housing system, speed up low-cost housing construction, increase the availability supply, strengthening the economy to housing construction and management, positive solution to low-income urban mass housing difficulties. "

Reporter noted that this year the government work report, the number of words related to housing nearly 600 characters, for the length of the calendar year, the government work report in 2008, crime and health care is destined to become a housing security system in the building of more content, more exciting one年.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao: "This year the low-rent housing system for funding the construction of 6.8 billion yuan, 1.7 billion yuan more than last year; local governments at all levels should increase input in this regard."

For Beijing, this is Olympic year, is also a letter of guarantee, according to Beijing's housing construction plan announced in Beijing this year, the city's planned 27.5 million square meters of new housing, low-cost housing 500,000 square meters , Economy housing 3 million square meters, housing prices 4.5 million square meters, housing and protection of the new housing plan 40 percent of the total. In Shanghai, the first batch of 1.6 million square meters of economy housing will also be in the third quarter of this year started a comprehensive, start the construction of the whole year will reach 4 million square meters; next five years, Shanghai will be the new economy of about 300,000 housing units Sets, 20 million square meters of new residential scale of the same period of around 20 percent. Guangdong Province in urban planning will solve the housing problems of low-income families into the public financial coverage, multi-channel mobilization and organization of low-cost housing security funds. Clearly, the real estate policy has been tilted to the housing security, the more people look forward to a smooth rational early arrival of the real estate market.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao: "We must unswervingly promote housing reform and construction, so that the masses of the people live and work in peace."

Half-hour observation: Olympic economy is not a "crisis"

After a round of soaring, the real estate market finally appeared "stable", neither is expected to appear in the "Olympic Market", has not appeared in the Bei Guanzhe expected sharp fall. All appear to have a smooth or walked back in, even the design of the system also began to become "the market to the market, to the protection of security."

Many passengers believe that Chaofang: the Olympic Games will promote housing prices skyrocketing, and the prices will plunge after the Olympics. Facts have proven that they are wrong. Not only economists, government officials, even ordinary people are also aware of: the Olympic Games for China's economic impact, not like a storm, is a strong short-term effect, while China's economy should be an integral part of a long A section of road in the beautiful course. She let the world see a more real, more vibrant China, but also to enable more investors to see the rapid development of China's reserves of more business opportunities. This is the real estate market, one of the most long-term good.

Stable growth, sustainable development of the real estate market in line with national policy and also with ordinary people's purchasing power and psychological expectations. Only a rational, healthy and orderly market, can bring stability in prices, only such a market, there will not be the people most worried about skyrocketing plummeted.

One sentence: Do not overestimate the Olympics for the short-term role of house prices, do not underestimate the Olympic Games to promote the long-term prices.