2008-08-17

A series of overseas capital reduction of foreign stocks Chengquan Olympic Games Quotes

8 to 13 August, the Shanghai index fallen 300 points on the Shanghai B-shares plummeted 18.38 percent while in August, the Hong Kong Chinese shares plunge into the same "vicious circle." "This is a 'organized and premeditated' short-Olympic Quotes. Many foreign institutional investors in early August to buy state-owned enterprise index, H share index of short contracts, investors use the emotional venting of suppressing indexes profit. "Shanghai foreign banks turned from a private person, told reporters. And an interview with reporters of the domestic agencies will also have to reduce the valuation of A-shares at around 2100.

"Premeditated" the reduction of the chain

When mainland investors will crash attributed to "the Olympic Games Quotes" dashed triggered by emotional venting, some at the same time to participate in A-shares in Hong Kong equities and overseas investors, but in early August in the capital linked to buy shares of state-owned enterprises to see empty index contract , The profit of at least 10 percent.

"This is an organized wave of short selling. Of foreign capital taking advantage of instability in people's minds during the Olympic Games, short A-shares, H shares, B shares. Collapse of this round, the role of foreign capital can not be ignored." Shanghai once in a three Foreign banks did the private equity fund managers, chairman disclosed that its methods of operation, the first to buy stock index futures contracts short, and then in the secondary market are short shares index suppressed, in the futures index on profit; stabilize the stock market, such as when to The swap will be short-positions, and at a low price to buy back shares.

The information published by the HKEx, July 29, JP Morgan Chase, including the reduction of Datang Power Generation (0991. HK), in the Sea Cargo (2866. HK), Conch Cement (0914. HK), China Shenhua (1088. HK), China Ocean (1919. HK), R & F Properties (2777. HK) and Anshan Iron and Steel Company shares (0347. HK), etc., in the capital stock, cash in a trading days up to 2.95 billion Hong Kong dollar, in recent years The rare large-scale reduction of action.

Short selling of shares in the capital, not just a JP Morgan Chase. August 4, a substantial reduction of 2238, Deutsche Bank shares China Life Insurance (2628. HK); 8 on 6, Merrill Lynch sold 2,150 shares Zijin Mining (2899. HK); 8 of 8 and 11, Deng Cape Asset Management Limited and South Korea next global investment assets were reduced holdings of 1362.8 million shares of Chalco (2600. HK) and 969.2 million shares of Anshan Iron and Steel Company.

"Sell goods, the turnover of shares in the capital is often double the normal." KGI investment adviser Choi Kang iron, for example, on August 12, China Mobile (0941. HK) transaction volume of more than 7 billion Hong Kong dollar, during times of Only more than 30 billion Hong Kong dollars; August 13, China Construction Bank (0939. HK) the transaction volume of 46 billion Hong Kong dollars, usually only 1.2 billion to 1.4 billion Hong Kong dollar level.

And the underlying shares plummeted when trading volume rose echoes that received warrants to participate in the HSI index and go short of funds also increased significantly. Cai Railway Hong noted that in July this year, the warrant is received warrants turnover of around 2.8 times, but in August decreased to 1.4 times. "This means that the warrant and received a Certificate of Entitlement Cixiaobizhang the situation." Which is reflected in the index contracts is particularly clear: August 13, the HSI index of 45 per cent of the subscription agreement, 55 % Is received from the contract, the same day, state-owned enterprises received contracts accounted for as much as 87 percent, only 13% of subscription contracts.

Hong Kong Polaris Securities Investment Office Managing Director of the European Hongjie observed that the withdrawal of foreign investment in stocks is extremely significant, Morgan Fund of funds from Hong Kong every day. Europe Hongjie that foreign investors are short of the two major reasons. "First, in the performance of growth stock funds in the Olympic Games after facing great uncertainty, institutions should re-assess the investment environment and the other is the weakness in global stock market environment as a backdrop, the dollar's recent strength, but also more willing to allow agencies to return to Domestic investment and consumption. "

"Many large U.S. customers to withdraw funds from Hong Kong equities of the United States. B-share market can also see the same trend." Royal Hong Kong-managing director of financial management Chen Maofeng said.

In short selling stocks, foreign investment in the A-share market also very active. TopView data show that by the end of July is still a net purchase of the QFII, 8月初massive multi-up air; August 1 to 7, QFII by the Shanghai Huaihai Road in the business department of the total shares sold, such as seats more than 800 million yuan, parabolic A major bargaining chip, including Industrial Bank (601166. SH), China Life Insurance (601628. SH), the China Ocean (601919. SH); another QFFI numerous and Shanghai Shenyin Wanguo Xinchang Road business department, August 8 to On the 12th also changed the situation in the past bought a net, amounted to 1.9429 billion net sellers.

Floating capital smashing to the "Olympic Quotes"

Utilization of foreign capital in the operation of the market linkage means profits in the mainland is no longer secret. Therefore, when foreign capital started when a big way to go short, A-share market as a large number of idle funds will be market leader. XU Yi (a pseudonym) is in this round "from outside" to do the big air "Suibo profit," one of the private placement.

XU Yi management in Shanghai with 10 billion of funds, management of the first half of his assets shrink by 15 percent, so he has a very long time has always been careful. But six months late, "the Olympic Games Quotes" Rise, XU Yi or could not have participated in a hope that "Maping before the loss." He nearly 700 million yuan of funds distributed among the five Olympic concept stocks, such as in industry (600158. SH), Beijing Urban and Rural (600861. SH), Xidan Shopping Centre (600723. SH), and so on. Because they "are the leading varieties Olympic Quotes, stirring up a good bargaining chip." After some speculation and down, the book proceeds XU Yi has been quite impressive, in Beijing on urban and rural areas rose from 11 yuan to 16 yuan, or nearly 50 percent.

But not quickly leave the XU Yi, still patiently recreating the day down, slowly shipments. "Quotes burst before there will be a crazy, before the withdrawal of the Olympic Games is the best time point." Accident but he is the end of July, the Olympic concept of collective shares down, "shipping has become very difficult, but we can only Cheng Zhao died. "

XU Yi said that he is "Tantebuan the feelings of" greeting on August 8 the stock market closed. "The market actually opened lower, then I feel not good, but it may have to think the market rose 100 points." But wait until the afternoon trading, "the Olympic market," the rapid spread of rumors, no longer Biebu Zhu XU Yi The.

"You do not sell, the others will sell." XU Yi later that day at noon after selling Kuangyong Open, did not know who had the first shot. But certainty is that many speculators have fled, and then the set is very small. "10 million shares of a single hit on the back are not buying a stock Hua Lala also descend." On that day, Beijing's urban and rural areas only 17 million turnover, while only a two-million shares, There are not a swap.

The same scenario occurred on August 8 in the private circle of Shenzhen. "Olympic Games Unit, a Shanghai local shares plummeted, the prices of all the Olympic dream has not completely smashed. Panic mentality of mutual infection, quickly spread to the individual sections of the market." Shenzhen, chairman of a private memories of the sun, he had targeted the Prepared to risk some property stocks rebound, "also was up that morning and afternoon but with the Olympic Games shares dropped 6 percent, hastened to Paolu."

"We did not intend to hit, but one look Dashiyiqu, can not hit." Shenzhen, another private equity investment manager, Duanchao funds are investment trends. I have Fengchuicaodong will compete to flee.

"Pre-market activity and this round of the crash, the major Duanchao are a group of the idle funds." National deputy general manager of a large fund companies said. TopView data show that on August 8 and 11, before the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 for the whole is a net outflow of hot money, "death squads" of the potential of each business.

"2100 points to consider Jiacang"

"A current Suoliang shares plummeted non-normal." Shanghai brokerage, research director of the mainstream, less than 500 billion daily turnover on the market selling small, and the crash is the main reason "to undertake Was very weak, and are willing to buy at this time the agency is too small. "

Topview data show that on August 8 and 11, the Shanghai stock market fund transactions totalling 17.206 billion yuan, a net inflow of 9.595 billion yuan of funds is to buy major force. However, other agencies did not follow the action, brokerage firms, insurance agencies, such as transaction volume of only 4.727 billion yuan, net capital outflow of 380 million yuan.

"Market confidence is very fragile, almost no new funding approach." South of a large fund company vice president said that on August 8 to South China (601766. SH) purchase funds to thaw, the market has not improved. And the North two large fund companies are more bluntly: "fell 21 points, we consider Jiacang."

"We have the mentality has changed, not Ganmai reasonable valuation, we have to wait until when the guts to underestimate the value of sorting chips." Everbright Securities Department deputy general manager of asset management and investment director Lu Wei believes that although the current dynamic in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Tracker rate has dropped to 15 times, but remains unwilling to the reasons for admission. "The current bodies to take a conservative strategy, such as 30 times price-earnings ratio of Chinese medicine shares fell 25 times, food and beverages hit the valuation of 30 times the following, Ganqu bought."

In fact, A stock valuations are reasonable or not this a slump in the industry to be discussed. "Using price-earnings ratio indicators, A shares are cheap, but with Shi Jinglv valuation method is very expensive." Shenzhen management of a trust product of three private equity chairman admits that his A-share valuations are very confused , But would prefer a reasonable valuation of the view.

"The market in 2700 points to 2800 points, the corresponding Shijing Shuai is 3.1 times. If the fallen 2,200 points, Shi Jingshuai valuation of 2.5 times a very reasonable." Shenzhen, general manager of a private placement that judgement.

However, some institutional investors say that, A shares with the International side, "Shi Jingshuai 2 times the only reasonable valuation, the corresponding points out of 1,800 points." Shenzhen a large asset management, general manager of brokerage firms that take into account the second half of the economy Slowdown and the reduction of the size of the non-pressure, A shares valued at around it in 2000.

August 14, A Unit volume set nearly 21-month low, still shows the current point of no incremental capital, "the blood." The industry believes that the economic downturn as investors worried about the unabated, A shares will further lower the valuation of focus, but the pace will slow down. "This situation can be expected to change after the Olympics."

Popularity Survey

Olympic Quotes with "empty"

Nearly half of the respondents believe that this round of decline, on the Topix index may be lowered 1800; Asked about the reasons for the sharp decline in stock prices, nearly 70% of institutional investors think it is the collective view space, about 20% of investors think And on the withdrawal of foreign capital. The full results of this survey show that the Olympic Games Quotes charged with "empty", also slid low market confidence. For example, 48.9 percent of investors think the third quarter, the central line of Jiancang has no chance.

This survey of three other issues, the results also reflect the collective loss of investors. First, what measures can decline »more than half of the answer is" favorable for launch ", in the face of weak market, investors still hope that the government actions; secondly, whether there will be the third quarter, the central line of Jiancang opportunity» 48.9 percent of investors do not think there; Third, the most optimistic about the second half of the investment direction »choice" other sections "accounted for 40 per cent, higher than the" concept of reorganization "and" financial property "- Not long before, the two major themes of this Was considered to be the focus of the next stage of the market.

Source: China Business Lu Yuan -