Carry trades pushed up the US-Japan

With the recent drop in international oil prices and the Bulletin of the United States gradually introduced, global stock markets Qunuan, market risks increase and regain carry trades, the euro reaching record highs against the yen, Australian dollar, British pound against the yen also return to the stage High, despite the weak dollar, driven by strong trading spreads, the United States and Japan to return to the top 107 trading, investors expected to continue rising.

Oil prices fall:

Boost the stock market and carry trades

At present the focus on the global market in the U.S. economy and inflation, while inflation is expected to dominate the global financial market movements. Inflation expectations affect market interest rates and interest rates expected to further impact on the stock market and foreign exchange markets. As inflation to speak of the international oil price, a matter of course to become the leader of the international financial markets. Recently, the U.S. financial industry better-than-expected quarterly publication, oil prices dropped, the New York market price of crude oil within seven days from 147 U.S. dollars / barrel dropped to 127 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 13.6 percent. From a technical point of view further if oil prices fell below 122 U.S. dollars, investors will continue to fall. The sharp decline in oil prices short period of time, boost market confidence, the U.S. stock market rose a row, global stock markets Qunuan, carry trades-led foreign exchange market, the euro against the yen probing the record high of 170, the U.S. dollar against the yen also rise from the reconstruction.

Bank of Japan:

Interest rate increase is still far away

As a resource-poor economic power, energy and commodity costs rose enormous impact on Japan's economy, soaring commodity prices this year makes Japanese industry costs surge, a drag on economic growth. Japanese government drastically cut its economic growth forecast this year, down from growth of 2.0% to 1.3% growth, coupled with Japan's deflation has yet to play to the painful memories of the economy, making the Bank of Japan in the economic slowdown and rising inflation scale, obviously Biased in favour of the former. In the world, including the United States in the fight against inflation, the Bank of Japan walking slowly. Data show that Japan's economic core inflation has risen to 10-year high, but the interest rate swap contracts at demolition, the end of March next year before the end of the fiscal year the Bank of Japan raising interest rates 0.25 percentage points of the probability is still only 50 per cent.

0.5 percent level of interest rates near zero, making the yen carry trades to become a natural tool, the Bank of Japan's position, to some extent, boosting the yen lower.

Caopan recommendations

The United States and Japan do more short-term

In the weak dollar and commodity prices, the big bull market environment, the author cautiously bullish on the United States and Japan, the proposed short-term investors can consider the United States and Japan to do more, and strictly enforce the stop-loss. Technical point of view, the United States and Japan after the break through 107, has built support in the 107.00-107.25 region, investors may consider proposals in this Jiancang, stop-loss in accordance with the investment risk tolerance of the proposals would in the near 106.80 or 105.70, U.S. and Japanese investors Up the main resistance at 108.70 and 110 of the important juncture.