Iran's shadow over international oil prices

As the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) second-largest member, as the current round of rising oil prices factor in the course of the war premium of the protagonist »» Iran's every move will no doubt affect the world oil price sensitive nerve.




Confrontation with Iraq pushed up oil prices

July 9, 10, sustained the Iranian Revolutionary Guards fired several long range missile, the Iranian side in response to the frequent military moves, Israel on July 10 showed its latest spy plane. The same day, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned that if Israel's vital interests are threatened, Israel will "not hesitate" to resort to military action. Iraq to the "live ammunition" confrontation and suddenly this has aggravated the crisis of the tension in the Gulf region, and the power far beyond the previously unlimited expansion of the speculators are the various war fears, oil prices Pushed up all the way. 10, the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures rose nearly 5.60 to 141.65 U.S. dollars a barrel, setting the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures on the history of the second largest single-day gain. London Brent crude oil futures prices also rose 3.99 percent, to 142.03 U.S. dollars a barrel. Analysts believe that if the United States and Iran, relations with Iraq once the irreversibility of the tense situation, oil prices very likely up to a high of 200 U.S. dollars per barrel. However, only a few days ago, the outside world had been interpreted as a series of moderate Iran's words and deeds to show soft crazy at the time soared to 145 U.S. dollars per barrel at the top of the price of oil came, July 2, Iran's supreme spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Velayati said that foreign policy adviser, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei decided personally with world powers on behalf of negotiations to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue; July 3, the Iranian side expressed its readiness to consider allowing the United States established diplomatic institutions in Tehran, the two countries and called for the resumption of direct flights; July 7, Iran to the EU foreign and security policy chief Javier Solana submitted on the Iranian nuclear issue to resume talks reply letter…… in the Iranian position after this series, went down in international oil prices, reduced 9.25 U.S. dollars, a The past four months the biggest one-day decline of 6.4 percent. At present, the reaction of the market clearly reflects a short-term future of oil prices: oil prices rose to Iran, Iran is also down. Iran factor in this week really started from the minds of speculators went to the front.

Deterrence and cooperation between the two cards are playing

Between the United States and Iraq, "Jiao E" has continued for nearly 30 years, but also from the real war seems to have a certain distance.

From the United States in terms of soaring oil prices make the U.S. economy has been suffering, the war brought the oil market turmoil, the United States also can not afford. At the same time, bogged down in the quagmire of Iraq the battlefield for the Bush administration has been accused of rashly if the use of force against Iran, while operating in the same area two wars, now the United States, also seems to be an "impossible task." In the remaining presidential term of office less than 200 days of time, although the Bush hopes to give the Iran issue a final statement, but out of the election, considerations of public opinion, the U.S. government or will not take the initiative to accelerate the deterioration of relations between the two countries. At present most want the election victory of Obama to contain oil prices continue to rise in the Declaration and the campaign has consistently advocated maintaining a dialogue with Iran's attitude, but also to the world that still exists between the United States and Iran the possibility of peace talks.

And from the Iranian point of view, although with 4.2 million barrels of oil output, oil transport to Sai Huoer wood Abroad Gap and the Bush administration from the hands of the value of imports of 148,000 U.S. dollars of weapons and equipment, etc., as bargaining chips, but the current domestic Iran to the United States Attitude is still a lot of differences. To Iran's supreme spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei headed by the "chief negotiator" stand not to risk sending in favour of a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, but it does not rule out the United States, Israel's military strikes against Iran, the possibility that Iran also need this To prevent. And to the Iranian President Ahmadinejad as the representative of "hardliners" that the military attack on Iran the possibility does not exist, so Iran should adhere to their attitude and refused any concessions. In view of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Iran's prestige and no one can, that it is still possible to become a problem in Iraq direction of future negotiations. At this very moment Iran itself can be placed into a retreat can observe the attack position, without renouncing the use of force to resolve the premise, and also has not closed the door to the six-party nuclear talks.

Analysts believe that the development of Iran's "deterrent diplomacy" will indeed be the world price of oil rose to provide a real factor, but the problem is not between the United States and Iraq can not be resolved, the war of the two countries equally devastating The two countries, the domestic "owners" forces still prevail. So Iran can play the role of factors ultimately may not like speculators are wants, the world oil market so the possibility of catastrophic crisis is still not high.