The Rock: A bear market share has been a policy change in the stock market trend has been die hard

From the tight monetary policy and stock market

Consumer Price Index dropped for two consecutive months, from the tight monetary policy should change his course of the keynote «If the current tight monetary policy to change the tone, whether the stock market will rebound» the beginning I have thought about this, but the deteriorating situation in inflation And the bear market is a foregone conclusion, the tight monetary policy to change the tone is unwise, but also has been unable to change the trend of the stock market.

Expansion from the perspective of inflation, CPI drop is the result of price control policy. PPI because of the persistent rise in May rose 8.2 percent in June rose 8.8 percent, the CPI over the same period from 7.7 percent to 7.1 percent decline can only show that the policies of the loss of business has expanded, the weakening of market forces, price control once the liberalized, retaliatory Increases the risk of rebound. At this point further tightening of monetary policy change the tone, not only is not a market-oriented, but will indulge economic control. In addition, because of natural disasters, but also because of the intensity of government intervention in the economy improved, coupled with the local government after the general impulse investment, fiscal policy has become a matter of fact from the steady expansion of two major policy-control tools have become a combination of expansionary fiscal and The combination of monetary tightening. At this time if the tone of monetary policy by tightening into a relaxed, the macro-control of the "combination of boxing" from the anti-inflation policy into a policy to encourage inflation.

From the stock market point of view, the bear market sentiment dominated the market, people will pay more attention to fundamentals of the situation, neglect of funds, the negative wealth effect to stimulate the market passion, and the tightening of monetary policy is relaxed or no avail. Bear market, investors are disheartened, has invested the money in the stock market would like to wait for opportunities fled, capital of relaxed even find it difficult to strengthen investment in the stock market motives. A-share market over the recent decline in the Vietnamese stock market, ranking the highest in the world. Is this what causes the «cool-headed analysis, in the past have supported the bull market still exist many factors, such as economic growth, demographic bonus, invisible assets and currency appreciation, asset revaluation, and so on. What factors have changed? «I speak only of the three major reversal: First, from a net inflow of capital flows into the net outflow and the second is from the emotional state of passion surging into disheartened, and the third is from the continuous improvement of company performance into sharp Deteriorate.

In the bull market sentiment dominated the market, financial and emotional interaction between the investors are often ignored or forgotten the fundamentals of concern, even after the opportunity Zhuihuimoji. Since then Tongdingsitong, started the trend of particular concern fundamentals, but not the rabbit does not spread eagles, must be seen to be moving Zhenjinbaiyin Fanxin. So in a bear market, bears to the trend of cattle from the fundamentals are always changing trends in the aptitudes good start. To this round of the bull market started as an example, in 2005 the stock market fell below 1,000 points to a rising, it is the performance of the stock market fundamentals improved significantly beginning. After the great bull market in the dynamic process, the listed company's fundamentals continue to improve. The company's growth of the stock market expected to improve the financing capacity, corporate finance increased capacity of the management team inspired the passion, and the company's growth in turn support the optimistic expectations of investors. Financial and emotional interaction into a performance and emotional interaction. From this wave of the bull market for starting to analyze the stock market to a "bear to bull": improving the fundamentals first, then capital of improvement, emotional side climaxed repeatedly. Therefore, the growth performance of listed companies bottomed pick-up is the key, if there is no rebound performance of the company, even if the tight monetary policy to the tone relaxed enough to back days, because the monetary policy adjustment for the stock market, usually only fire Shangjiao oil, it can not timely help.

Judging from the current market situation, the non-banking listed companies is accelerating the deterioration of the fundamentals, banking stocks performance Dumu difficult to hold, especially in all walks of life talking about "turning point" and "rescue", the bank shares Jiang Li Ban Nianbao the figures behind the brewing sales fell and the accumulation of risks. Perhaps the stock market has reflected the pessimism ahead of expectations, perhaps the performance of bank shares to digest the growing risk of bad debts, but after all, only "maybe", need to see the 23-quarter financial report to determine. Looking investors, domestic and international economic instability, policy of the complex and volatile, sales fell fundamentals, investors are increasingly cautious trading volume shrinking significantly. So I said: observing the shocks bottomed within six months, two years after the return to double income; throwing a long line interpretation of Balao legend, Ruoshi in awaiting the opportunity to reproduce.

Loose monetary policy will help boost the stock market, but in terms of price control policies after the start, this opportunity has disappeared. Why is it «for three reasons: First, the bull market in the second half price control was" suspended ", the original injected into the SAC and the total assets listed in the plan in many enterprises after the implementation of price controls by the sudden loss into profit, which As the team entries were found using drugs, lost their team. The results, the second half suddenly halt the bull market, bear market the first half Perak Secondly, price control policy through stock market losses deprived of the profits and changed the company's performance expectations for sustainable growth, the formation of the overall performance of the stock market from the growth surge Dropped into, this is cattle to the fundamentals of the reasons for Bear Thirdly, the price control policy of "temporary", not only to enlarge the stock market uncertainty and economic entities increased by the uncertainty. Economics, not the decision-making under uncertainty, particularly concerned about the external factors of uncertainty, because the external uncertainties as natural disasters and war, with unpredictable and uncontrollable nature, it is psychological on the market A greater deterrent effect.

The stock market is a market economic system the most sensitive nerve, so any non-market policy will have very violent reaction, when such extreme reactions be ignored, the late "to save the market," it will be difficult to re-ignite have disappeared The passion.