The world economy: the United States was kidnapped or tied up to accompany the initiative »

Observers on the cards
Troubled world economic stability and development in the financial, energy and food, and so are the three major crises and the United States can not stem from the Department. The United States has swollen to allow countries in the world for its financial accounts pay for Black, frequently carry诸侯dollars to make, both because of the lack of a world built on institutionalized and sustained on the basis of communication and coordination mechanism, lies with the U.S. hegemony Under the initiative to abandon the logic of the economic policy of independence.

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"The two" crisis of the loan-to-the United States will be even more serious crisis dragged into the second half, a bad account of the United States on the one hand claiming to restore stability in financial markets as a top priority, on the other hand continue to ask other countries to buy more room Loan-to-bonds, to pay for the irresponsible economic policy. It seems that the world economy really thorough abducted by the United States. In the so-called one with all prospering or declining as one of the logic of economic globalization under the arrangement, various countries (mainly foreign exchange reserves of more economies) still have to dance with the United States, the United States at risk will be shifted to other countries once again successfully assessed the economic cost .

Not only that, the troubled world economic stability and development of the three major crises - the financial, energy and food, in fact, with the United States can not stem from the Department. The unprecedented economic earthquake, despite the loss to the United States credibility and is likely to waver in the world economic system in the position, but the actual loss is the largest, including China, the vast majority of developing countries. It is hard to say whether the United States intends to detonate the crisis, but by the crisis has undoubtedly contributed to the re-distribution of global wealth, while nearly a trillion dollars the U.S. Securities and China is clearly not the winner.

The United States has let other countries for its financial accounts pay for Black, is to eat all of the prospective payment system's dependence on U.S. dollars. As we all know, because the use of excessive force, the United States alone fortune in the world financial order after years, have had to be a small part of the economy to give his country the right to speak, and with the rise of the euro, China, Russia and India and other emerging economies, the strength of jumped up and because of Health and the discourse of the demands of the international financial situation seems to be breeding a new round of reshuffle. However, due to short-term dollar crisis and the outbreak of lack of time constraints of the system and mechanism, so no country dared to discard easily dollars, the Federal Reserve continues to serve as the world's central banks. Or even, the dollar can be no gold behind the support of the United States to issue bonds do not need the support of domestic savings. Thus, in this "Mint tax privileges" within the framework of the United States can kidnap the economies of countries without having to bear the number of consequences, while other countries are the United States must bear the cost of economic fluctuations. To some extent, the loan-to-high oil prices and the crisis with the existing U.S. dollar payment system, as well as the economic policy of the U.S. arrogant and closely related.

Bush administration came to power after the war to the United States to ease the pressure on the economy, has adopted a series of tax cuts, cuts in interest rates and other measures to boost the economy in the U.S. budget and trade deficits in the long-term high at the same time, as well as the loan-to - Crisis buried hint. In such circumstances, the United States on the one hand a large number of external debt, the risk of their own development will be transferred to Japan, China and other creditor countries on the other hand, wantonly domestic credit expansion, the local community will be tremendous risk of various types of secondary mortgage loan package for the CDO sold to the banks of other countries, will advance the real estate bubble and the financial risk onto the release. The crisis erupted after the loan-to-time, the Fed in order to prevent economic recession, and save the U.S. financial system, to take a very loose monetary policy, injected a lot of liquidity. This intentional in order to the depreciation of the dollar is cyclical risks of external radiation, in the global context of the loan-to-cost-sharing. The recent oil also rose to the dollar as the central payment system risk of an expression. From dollar-denominated oil prices, depreciation of the dollar caused by rising oil prices naturally. In other oil-consuming countries suffering by the high oil prices, the United States can be produced through oil-for-dollar. Although oil-exporting countries and earned a big one, but these "oil dollars" to the same flows into U.S. financial markets for maintaining and increasing the value, and in a sense for the U.S. trade deficit and financial pay. On the other hand, the service industry in the U.S. economy in the proportion of large, and the energy consumption of a considerable part of the manufacturing sector has shifted to other countries, high oil prices again, it will not constitute a substantive impact on the U.S. economy.

Kidnapping of national economies of the United States next move might be: in the United States call for countries to take strong dollar situation, "decisive" in appreciation for the results of the world inflation eased, but again denied his country in disguise. Its path arrangements are: a continued depreciation of the dollar makes emerging economies difficult to control high inflation, coupled with the loan-to-the spread of the crisis, the emerging economies of the asset bubble burst more and more opportunities, it was forced to take a hard landing, resulting in Significantly shrinking demand, money out of commodity markets, the dollar strengthened homeopathy, the return of funds the United States, the United States in strengthening the stability of financial institutions at the same time, emerging economies has led to a substantial decline in foreign exchange reserves, stock market prices substantially diminished, the stock market. As the world's highest oil and gold reserves in the United States, may choose to sell at a high level of oil and gold, return dollars to continue clearing the world economy.

It should be acknowledged that in the beginning of the establishment of the Bretton Woods system, the U.S. dollar and gold is linked to the United States to shoulder the maintenance of stability in the world economy the role of a responsible big country, but when the system collapsed, delinked from the dollar and gold, the world economy at the beginning of imbalance , The States should be working to rebuild the international financial order, and balance training can affect the dollar International Monetary the best time. But the major European economic power and economic growth in Japan have missed this opportunity. By the 1980s, when Japan's economy of scale to achieve the two-thirds of the United States, the United States began to say "no" when Japan is extremely inflated asset prices indulge in the surface of prosperity, and eventually the United States a piece of paper "Square Agreement "easily laid bare the asset bubble, has started to enter the lost decade, the total dollar loss of the balance of opportunities. Since then, the European Mondale in the theory of optimum currency areas under the guidance of the currency to accelerate the integration process and the turn of the century has been widely introduced high hopes for the euro. But Gehuai thinking of the European continent in fact played a role in dragging down the euro and the pound and the United States has refused to Zhaoan by launching the war in Kosovo against the euro confidence in the euro and performance far short of expectations. Despite the strength of the euro currency in the share of global foreign exchange reserves from the 1999 birth of just 1.81 per cent to the current nearly 30 percent. However, the "strong euro" is not actually reflect the euro zone economic fundamentals, but intends to depreciation of the dollar by-products. Which include Japan, China and India, the economic power do not fully prepared to accept the euro.

It can be said that the United States today, has swollen to allow countries in the world for their own financial accounts pay for Black, has frequently carried诸侯dollars to make, both because of the lack of a world built on institutionalized and sustained on the basis of communication and coordination mechanism, More independent economic policy is to abandon the countries in a sense tied to accompany the initiative.

(The author of the management of the East Shanghai International Studies University, deputy director of Research Center)